Forecasting skills supply and demand: work in progress on new sets of data
A recent Skillsnet workshop has helped improve skills forecasting methodology by introducing new parameters for the break-down of results.
The workshop discussed improvements in analysis of the impact of migration on the qualification mix in different countries; in linking rising skills levels with productivity gains; and in the development of detailed occupation-skills profiles. There has been a shift of dimension to more qualitative policy scenarios and their translation into quantitative terms. Also, the underlying data have been refined to include such parameters as wage structure and fields of study, allowing for better and more disaggregated results.
Though current macroeconomic results provide grounds for slight optimism, a second recession or at least a lengthy recovery are to be expected. The skillsnet team will need to reconsider the baseline and alternative scenarios in the light of current developments in the EU and elsewhere.
Following the workshop – which was organised in cooperation with the Institute for Employment Research of the University of Warwick and the Greek National Institute of Labour and Human Resources – Cedefop will hold an international seminar on ‘Skills anticipation and matching: Common and complementary research strategies’ on 14 and 15 November 2011 in Athens.
Cedefop will announce the new full set of forecasts in March 2012. At the same time it will launch an online tool to provide easy access to the results.