21 MAR 2023
Data insights

Skills anticipation in Hungary (2022 Update)

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Summary

Overview of the Hungarian approach

In Hungary, there is no coordinated skills anticipation system at the national level. The governance of the skills anticipation mainly rests with the Ministry of Finance (Pénzügyminisztérium). Within the Ministry, the State Secretariat for Employment Policy and Corporate Relations (headed by a Minister of State) is the responsible body – established in May 2018. While the Ministry of Human Capabilities (Emberi Erőforrások Minisztériuma) is responsible for skills anticipation related to higher education. The national and county levels of Chambers of Commerce and Industry (HCCI and CCIs respectively) have an important role in the supply and analysis of skills anticipation data, as does the Hungarian PES (Nemzeti Foglalkoztatási Szolgálat).

Skills anticipation in the country comprises a range of activities undertaken by different organisations. These activities are not coordinated; and stakeholders make use of only a small fraction of the relevant data available.

More specifically, skills anticipation is mainly dependent upon the results emanating from a number of surveys of employers, carried out by the PES and the Hungarian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (Magyar Kereskedelmi es Iparkamara, HCCI). The Institute for Economic and Enterprise Research also conducts employer surveys, collecting data about skills shortages.  These provide substantial information on the current level of employment and the short-term projected demand for employment in various occupations or jobs. Projections about future skills needs are based on employers’ views of their skills needs over the next one to five years; however, there are concerns about the reliability of the results. Tracking surveys of graduates from VET and higher education (HE) are also in place. It should be noted that a forecasting tool was developed supported by the ESF that formally modelled future skills demand (considering supply-side developments), but its results have not been updated since 2013.

In contrast, a more coordinated approach appears to be in place at county level, led by the Development and Training Committees of the respective Chambers of Commerce and Industry (CCI). In 2018, sector skills councils were formed to monitor the labour market and technological developments to inform education and training provision, and the National Qualification Register. The Hungarian Chamber for Commerce and Industry oversees the work of the councils.

Much of the data collated by the public employment service (PES) are available online in table format while data collected and processed by the CCI can be viewed, analysed, and downloaded from its online portal. These data repositories target policymakers and employers, labour market intermediaries (e.g. employment agencies), and researchers.

Description

In Hungary, there is no coordinated skills anticipation system. Skills anticipation activities comprise of several employer surveys run by the public employment service (PES) and the Hungarian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (HCCI). The results of these surveys are important sources of skills intelligence and are used to provide estimates of current and future skills demand. The various skills anticipation activities that take place are thematically related, and the various agencies share know-how on an ad hoc basis. The activities, however, and their results are not fully integrated. The PES also maintains the “vacancy monitor” (based on information from employers).

The Ministry responsible for skills and labour market forecasting is the Ministry of Finance (Pénzügyminisztérium). Within the Ministry, the State Secretariat for Employment Policy and Corporate Relations (headed by a Minister of State), set up in May 2018, is the responsible body. The framework and databank for labour market forecasts could be considered the most comprehensive tool for skills anticipation in Hungary, as it offers an indication of labour demand and supply over the medium-term. Most of the data, however, have not been updated since the launch of the databank in 2013, when it included data for 2010 (see section “Skills forecasts” for more information).

Nevertheless, the Fiscal Council runs a short-term labour market forecast developed by the Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences (IE CERS HAS), which is based on a restricted version of the above-mentioned framework and databank.

The Institute for Economic and Enterprise Research conducts employer surveys, collecting data about skills shortages, among others (Quarterly Business Climate Survey and Monthly Bulletin of Economic Trends). Surveys of the demand for, and supply of, students leaving vocational education, and tracking surveys of higher education graduates are also important sources of skills intelligence.  It should be noted that the use of linked survey and administrative data relating to the career progression of higher education graduates represents a relatively advanced means of skills anticipation in Hungary.

In 2018, the sector skills councils were formed to monitor the labour market and technical technological developments to inform education and training provision, and the National Qualification Register. The Hungarian Chamber for Commerce and Industry oversees the work of the councils.

Aims

The primary aim of skills anticipation in Hungary is to match skills supply to labour demand, especially at the county level where the Development and Training Committees (Megyei Fejlesztési és Képzési Bizottságok, CDTCs) have a responsibility for ensuring that education and training supply meet demand in the labour market. The 19 CDTCs hold a key position in ensuring information and feedback loops are in place regarding the establishment and promotion of a demand-driven VET system and the coordination of VET development at national level. CDTC members were representatives of local employer and employee organisations, and chambers of commerce and industry. In the past, the Committees had a responsibility for making recommendations about the number of training places to be offered at the local level; this is now the responsibility of the Ministry of Finance.

The new Ministry for Innovation and Technology (Innovációs és technológiai Minisztérium)  has responsibility for the overall coordination of adult and vocational training. Different elements of skills anticipation are designed to inform decision-making amongst policymakers, VET providers, young people for their studies, and jobseekers.

Legal framework

The regulatory framework relating to skills anticipation includes the following elements:

  • Data collection and statistical analysis carried out by the PES is regulated by the Government Decree 291/2006;
  • The development of graduate tracking was announced in the VET framework strategy (2005) with a regulation included as an amendment to the Public Education Law (2007) which stated that students, higher education institutions, and employers have a duty to provide data for statistical purposes. The tracking survey was first run in 2010;
  • The Act on Vocational Education (2011, amended in 2015) restructured the system of VET. County-level Development and Training Committees (Megyei Fejlesztési és Képzési Bizottságok, CDTCs) have been set up to coordinate the provision of VET according to the labour market needs projected at the county level. The county level Chambers of Commerce and Industry (CCIs_ lead these committees;
  • In 2013, the Labour Offices which make up the regional and local levels of the PES were merged into county level Government Offices. In 2015, the organisation overseeing the Labour Offices (the National Employment Office) was formally closed and since 2018 the Ministry for Finance took direct charge of issues related to skills anticipation. Previously, it was the responsibility of the Ministry for the National Economy.

Governance

Skills anticipation activities are the responsibility of the following authorities:

  • At the national and county level, the Hungarian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (HCCI), the Institute for Economic and Enterprise Research and the Hungarian Statistical Office (Központi Statisztikai Hivatal, KSH) produce and publish skills anticipation data. HCCIs lead the county-level Development and Training Committees, which are the main organisations for the coordination of skills anticipation at that administrative level. The Committees review the evidence on the demand for, and supply of, skills, including information provided by the CCIs. Until 2015, these Committees made recommendations for the number of school-based VET places to be provided in a given county. The recommendations were based on information collected by the CCI and the county-level PES offices, through employer surveys, and the vacancy monitor.  In 2015, decision-making on school-based VET provision was centralised when the Ministry for the National Economy (now Ministry for Finance).
  • The Ministry of Human Capabilities (Emberi Erőforrások Minisztériuma) is responsible for skills anticipation related to higher education.

The role of stakeholders

As mentioned above, the county level Development and Training Committees are the main organisations for the coordination of skills anticipation at county level. These Committees are led by the county level CCIs which represent local employers.

There is a formal process for involving social partners in discussions relating to skills needs.  Within this process, employers tend to be the more influential stakeholder group. The involvement of employers’ organisations is central to skills anticipation in the country: the Hungarian Chambers of Commerce and Industry at national and county levels are key players in data collection, analysis, and policy consultations relating to VET.

Employers’ role is central also in sectoral skills councils (SSCs) that are operative since the 1st of July 2018 based on the Act CLXXXVII/2011 on vocational training. There are 19 SSCs for 41 economic sectors, where 7-19 business representatives sit, depending on sectoral size and structure. SSCs keep track of economic, labour-market and technological developments at sectoral level, propose changes in the national qualifications register and suggest necessary adjustments of the vocational and adult education system to facilitate the match with labour market needs. So far, the role of SSCs has been proved important as they link employers’ needs and proposals with VET. Communication and collaboration between the SSCs and the Ministry for Innovation and Technology, with the support of the Hungarian Chamber of Commerce and Industry has played a major role.

Coordination of activities is more apparent at the county level where the Development and Training Committees are the main organisations responsible for bringing together stakeholders to discuss issues relating to the demand for, and supply of, skills.  They bring together employer representatives (via the CCIs) and regional policymakers.  The Committees are coordinated by the Ministry for Finance.

Target groups

The intended primary user groups are policy makers at national and county level and VET providers. The objective of making labour market information available is to enable policy makers, individuals, employers, and training providers to make informed decisions.  Young people deciding on VET and higher education courses; jobseekers and career guidance professionals are the secondary intended user groups.

The following organisations also use the results of skills anticipation exercises:

  • The National Vocational and Adult Training Council (Nemzeti Szakképzési és Felnőttképzési Tanács, NSZFT) that assists the minister responsible for VET. It is a consultative body without any decision-making mandate. It can, however, issue recommendations and evaluations regarding VET policy and financing, and the National Qualifications Register (NQR);
  • The National Qualification Committee is an advisory body working on the development of VET content. It monitors conditions in the external environment (e.g. economic and technological change) and the extent to which these require modifications to be made to the NQR;
  • The National Economic and Social Council of Hungary (Nemzeti Gazdasági és Társadalmi Tanács, NESC) is a consultative, proposal-making and advisory body independent of the Government. Members include representatives of the economy: advocacy groups; employer associations; trade unions; representatives from academia; non-governmental organisations; and churches;
  • The Fiscal Council of Hungary comments on the draft of the Act on the Central Budget, on the planning and execution of the budget, the use of public funds and the state of public finances. To fulfil these tasks, the Council has several studies conducted by independent institutions (universities, think-tanks, etc.). One of these studies is a short-term labour forecast.

Funding and resources

Skills anticipation is co-funded by the government and, over recent years through European Union grants (primarily the European Social Fund).

Methods and tools

Skills anticipation exercises in Hungary utilise various methods including employer surveys and statistical modelling.

Skills assessment

There are no skills assessment activities in Hungary.

Skills forecasts

The Comprehensive framework and databank for labour market forecasts is a compilation of survey and administrative data that provides information on the demand for, and supply of, skills. It forecasts labour demand and supply over the medium term (five years ahead) using economic modelling. So far, the framework has generated quantitative forecasts for 200 occupational groups in 10 broad sectoral categories. Some of the key research findings are available in English and all are available in Hungarian. An information system was also created alongside the databank to provide jobseekers with online information about employment prospects in various occupations and the associated estimated lifetime earnings. The databank and framework were developed by the IE CERS HAS and co-funded by the European Social Fund through the then Ministry of Social and Labour Affairs. The first phase of the databank was completed in 2013 and included data up to 2010. There is no information available on the government’s plans to update the system and/or to continue its development[i].

The IE CERS HAS produces labour market projections by age group, gender, and five levels of education. Its aim is to quantify the imbalance between supply and demand. The primary purpose of this short-term (two years) projection is to assess the impact of labour market developments on the central budget.

Skills foresight

Some foresight work is undertaken only on an ad hoc basis at sectoral level.

Other skills anticipation practices

The short-term labour market prognosis of the PES and HCCI is the longest running skills anticipation exercise in Hungary, first established in 1992 by the predecessor of the current PES. It is based on survey data collected from employers. The survey is run jointly by the PES (for medium-sized and large firms) and the Institute of Economics and Enterprise Research of the HCCI (for small firms). The questionnaire collects information on details of employers’ business plans and on expectations between one and five years into the future. Comprehensive information on employers’ human resource requirements is also collected. Based on the survey, data estimates of future skills demand are produced by the Institute of Economics and Enterprise Research of the HCCI. The analysis is dependent upon the views of the employers and there are concerns these may provide unreliable evidence. A 2012 follow-up survey questioned the reliability of employers’ predictions of their future skills needs (one year and five years ahead respectively) as a source of evidence[ii].

The quarterly survey of human resource management targets private sector companies and is coordinated by the PES. It collects information on the number of recruits and of employees expected to leave the organisation over the next 12 months. Data are collected by occupation. The survey provides a source of short-term employment level data. Due to its high response rate, the survey is considered an important source of short-term skills intelligence. There are, however, concerns about the representativeness of the survey when disaggregated by geography, sector, or firm size[iii].

There are annual surveys of the demand and supply of students leaving VET, carried out by the Institute of Economics and Enterprise Research of the HCCI. The demand side comprises a survey of 2,500 employers about their predicted labour demand.[iv] The survey has been conducted annually since 2009 and is considered an important source of information, comprising likely skills needs over the next three to five years. On the supply-side, data are collected at two time points - when individuals leave vocational secondary schools, and 19 months later- regarding their employment and education status, and the training to which these individuals have had access[v].

The Integrated Higher Education Graduate Tracking Database (Diplomás Pályakövető Rendszer, IHGTD) combines information on graduates’ careers with administrative data from the Higher Education Information System, the database of the Hungarian Tax Office, and the PES. The IHGTD provides skills intelligence through matching education and employment data. By looking at types of degree courses that graduates pursued and comparing this with their subsequent employment, a detailed picture of graduates’ entry to, and progression through, the labour market is provided. It is considered to be one of the most advanced sources of labour market intelligence available in Hungary. The Vacancy Monitor of the Public Employment Service collects information from employers who seek assistance from the PES.  The database is available to jobseekers in the PES offices, as well as online as a “virtual labour market”. This information source is selective by its nature (i.e. it only contains jobs posted by the PES), but it nonetheless provides up-to-date information on current skills demand and the extent to which job vacancies are filled.

Dissemination and use

Use of skills anticipation in policy

Data and analyses outlined in Section “Methods and Tools” are available to the government/policymakers. In general, the extent to which the data and its analysis influence policy is unclear.

Target groups’ uses of skills anticipation outputs

Skills anticipation data are intended for use by policy-makers, young people (either making the transition from school to work or choosing which courses to study), jobseekers, training providers, employers (represented by the CCIs and other business associations), and labour market intermediaries (e.g. careers counsellors).

Young people and jobseekers can access information through the online portals of the PES and the HCCI.[vi] These portals, however, are geared more towards policymakers, employers and researchers than jobseekers or young people. The Comprehensive framework and databank for labour market forecasts, developed by the IE CERS HAS, developed a user-friendly portal targeted at jobseekers and young people choosing which courses to study. As mentioned in section “Skills forecasts”, the information available via this portal has not been updated since 2013.

At the regional and county levels, Development and Training Committees are a target audience.  These Committees, based on skills demand/anticipation information, indicate the number of young people who would need to enrol in various VET courses if future demand were to be met.  Research demonstrated that publicly funded VET providers largely failed to follow the recommendations of the Committees, particularly if these indicated the downscaling of certain programmes on offer.  This instigated the decision of the Ministry for the National Economy (now known as the Ministry for Finance) to centralise the decision making about enrolment numbers in 2015.

Those responsible for higher education provision are also a target audience.  Data from the graduate tracking tool described in Section “Methods and Tools” are used by the Ministry of Human Capabilities to inform its decision-making. The data do not, however, have a direct influence on setting enrolment levels for higher education institutions.

Please cite this document as:Cedefop.(2022). Cedefop.(2022). Skills anticipation in Hungary. Skills intelligence: data insights. URL [accessed DATE]

Bibliography

Endnotes

[i]The latest data come from 2010. A description of the research project can be found here: http://elorejelzes.mtakti.hu/english/

[ii]Czibik, Á., Fazekas, M. Németh, N. Semjén, A. & Tóth, I.J. (2012). Labour Demand Forecasting Based on Business Expectations – Lessons Learnt from Two Consecutive Enterprise Surveys. Budapest: MTA KRTK KTI.

[iii]NGM. (2015).

[iv]GVI. (2014b).

[v]GVI. (2014a).

[vi]GVI. (2016b).

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