The forecasting mechanism was introduced in November 2018 as a new tool to help shape the vocational education and training offer at local and regional levels. Starting from 2019, this forecast will be created annually and published in the form of an announcement by the education ministry.
The document is prepared based on an analysis by the Educational Research Institute, which has also developed the forecasting methodology. Different qualitative and quantitative data and various data sources were used, including Statistics Poland, the Polish Social Insurance Institution, the School information system, analyses of online job vacancies, and State and regional development strategies. Sector skills councils, the competence programme council and ministers responsible for the occupations taught in the VET system were also consulted.
The main part of the analysis is an alphabetically ordered list of 20 vocational education occupations for which special demand in the national labour market is forecast. The list includes occupations such as automation worker, electromechanical worker and programming technician. The analysis also contains lists of vocational education occupations for which both significant demand and moderate demand are forecast in each of the 16 regions of Poland. The number of occupations indicated in the regions varies and depends on local conditions.
The forecast will have an impact on VET financing. From 2020, local governments will receive increased State subsidies for VET learners in special demand occupations. Increased funding will also be available for employers involved in training VET learners (juvenile employees) in those occupations.