Skills forecast

Background, goals and methodology

In 2010, Cedefop was mandated by the Council conclusions on “New skills for new jobs: the way forward”  to produce forecasts on trends in skill supply and demand for Europe every two years.

The Cedefop Skills Forecast provides a comprehensive and comparable overview of labour market trends and skill developments across the European Union. Unlike national-level skills anticipation and forecasting initiatives, which often employ more sophisticated methodologies, the Cedefop Skills Forecast uses harmonized data and a single methodology to ensure comparability across countries. This approach allows for the aggregation of results to provide an overall picture of labour market trends in the EU. The forecast covers all EU Member States, as well as a few additional countries. For more details on the methodology please consult our Methodological Framework.

Validation and expertise:  The Cedefop Skills Forecast is validated by a network of national experts representing a wide range of expertise, including academics, labour market economists, econometricians and statisticians.

Cedefop Skills Forecast: latest results

The latest round of the forecast covers the period up to 2035. Macroeconomic assumptions in the model relevant to population developments are based on EuroPOP 2023. GDP projections are based on the DG ECFIN Ageing Report 2024 (long-term) and the European Commission’s Autumn 2024 economic forecast (short-term), while assumptions pertaining to inflation are based on the World Bank Commodity Prices Forecast and the European Central Bank. Specific assumptions relevant to the European Green Deal (e.g., Fit-For-55 trends) are also included in the model. For full details please see our Technical Report.

Access and resources

• Visit our online tool to visualise the projections from our latest Cedefop Skills Forecast update.
• Download the latest Cedefop Skills Forecast dataset.