Job loss and COVID-19: do remote work, automation and tasks at work matter?

Using unique data provided by a dedicated COVID-19 impact scenario carried out for the latest Cedefop skills forecast, we find that less remote working potential and more automation risk are related to larger expected losses in employment due to COVID-19 for different countries and occupations, but not industries. These links are stronger in the short-term future for different countries, but for occupations they seem to strengthen in the years after 2022, reflecting the removal of protective measures taken by EU governments as the world recovers from the pandemic. Relating expected employment loss to the intensity of performing different tasks at work, we find that such loss is expected to be less for countries and occupations in which social, intellectual and information and communication technology (ICT) skills are important for a larger proportion of jobs.