Europe's ambition of a genuinely borderless learning space — where qualifications travel with people, and skills earned in one context are recognised in another — remains work in progress. Despite two decades of sustained policy effort and investment, learning outcomes are still not fully portable across institutions, sectors, and Member States. The question is not whether this matters. It is what happens next.
Drawing on evidence from the past two decades, Cedefop's latest research paper, Shaping the future of lifelong learning: policy scenarios for 2040, published this month, uses policy scenarios to explore how European education and training systems could evolve by 2040, and how today's choices will shape that future.
The report is part of Cedefop’s Transparency and Transferability of Learning Outcomes work, and builds on two earlier phases. The first examined European and national policy initiatives from 2000 to 2020 aimed at making learning more transparent and transferable. The second tracked how individuals' lifelong learning opportunities evolved over the same period, finding significant progress alongside persistent gaps — particularly around the portability of learning across sectors and contexts.
Building a 2040-proof Union of Skills
The report arrives at a critical moment, as European institutions consider what it takes to build a Union of Skills. At its heart, the analysis identifies a persistent tension: between flexibility and structure, and between permeability and fragmentation. How these tensions are resolved — or left unresolved — will shape how freely people can move between learning pathways, have their skills recognised, and access opportunities across borders.
From these foundations, the new report identifies key trends, including:
developments in quality assurance and credit systems
advances in the recognition and validation of non-formal and informal learning
the growing role of digital credentials
the shift towards more personalised, flexible pathways.
These trends, placed alongside broader social, technological, economic, environmental and political factors, give rise to five distinct scenarios for 2040.
Five futures for European learning
At one end, Flex Max envisions a highly adaptable, integrated learning ecosystem where learners move seamlessly within and across countries, supported by personalised pathways and digital tools. At the other, Rigid Islands describes a world of stable, standardised systems that offer predictability but little room for mobility or recognition of learning acquired outside formal structures. Between these poles sit three further scenarios — Fragmented Flexibility, Rigid but Internationally Connected, and Gated Communities — each reflecting a different balance of priorities and trade-offs.
The implications for learners, providers, and policymakers differ sharply across these futures. For learners, flexibility brings opportunity but also complexity. For providers, adaptability demands innovation but also increases organisational load. For policymakers, the scenarios map a range of choices — from maintaining distinct national or sectoral systems to investing in coordination across sectors and borders.
The report does not predict which future will arrive. It is, instead, an invitation to consider what current policy choices may already be determining — and whether that future is the one Europe wants. As part of its ongoing work on transparency and transferability of learning outcomes, Cedefop will continue to monitor these developments and provide the evidence base to inform the debate.
