Measuring participation in adult learning: new targets, methods and data

Summary

Raising adult (25- to 64-year-olds) participation in lifelong learning has been a key objective of European vocational education and training (VET) policy for more than two decades. To perform their jobs effectively and improve career and job opportunities, Europe’s ageing workforce needs continue to learn to manage the accelerating technological change that is transforming jobs and tasks.

Reflecting its importance, the European Union (EU) has set several targets for desirable levels of participation in adult learning. However, targets, methods and data for counting participation in adult learning under the current, post-2020, European VET policy cycle, have changed. They differ significantly from those used in previous policy cycles of 2002-10 and 2010-20. This insight discusses the differences between the new and old targets, methods and data. It considers some issues on the definition of adult participation in lifelong learning and present a selection of updated key figures in the EU.

New targets, counting methods and data sources

Post-2020 European VET policy, in the 2021 Council Resolution on the European Education Area, sets a target of 47% of adults participating in learning by 2025. Under the 2021 European Pillar of Social Rights Action Plan, this target rises to 60% by 2030. These targets are considerably higher than those set in earlier VET policy cycles of 12.5% by 2010 and 15% by 2020. The difference in the old and new targets is largely explained by the new method of measuring participation in adult learning.

• In line with Eurostat Classification of Learning Activities (CLA),  adult participation continues to be measured with respect to the concepts of formal and non-formal learning. For technical and practical reasons, informal and random learning by adults continue not to be considered for key headline statistics and quantitative target setting.
•  On the other hand, while targets in the 2002-10 and 2010-20 policy cycles counted learning that took place in the previous four weeks, the post-2020 European target counts learning by adults that took place in the previous 12 months. This approach is now regarded as more appropriate for supporting policy making and monitoring.

The longer reference period for participation in learning explains the leap from a target of 15% in 2020 to one of 60% by 2030.

For the post-2020 VET policy cycle, the 2020 European skills agenda sets two other targets for adult participation in learning.

• The first is to raise participation of adults with low levels of education to 30% by 2025. This target uses the new method of counting learning that took place in the previous 12 months.
• The second target is to raise the share of unemployed adults with a recent learning experience to 20% by 2025. To better align with the labour market concept of unemployment status, this target counts learning that took place in the previous four weeks.

LFS and AES: different approach

In the earlier 2002-10 and 2010-20 European VET policy cycles, data on participation in adult learning was collected annually by the European Labour Force Survey (LFS), which has traditionally been measuring participation in adult learning in the previous four weeks. Adult participation in learning over the previous 12 months was measured by the Adult Education Survey (AES). However, the AES is carried out every six years. To inform European VET policy development and implementation, the EU needs a more frequent data source to measure participation in adult learning and progress towards the target.

Consequently, the LFS has been enriched to include variables that capture participation in adult learning over a 12-month period and report the data every two years. The first LFS data of this kind was collected in 2022 and is now available. It can potentially be compared with the 2022 round of the AES.

While both surveys cover both formal and non-formal learning, measure participation in the previous 12 months, and apply overall the same concepts and definitions, the AES and LFS are different survey vehicles. This can lead to different results due to several key reasons (more detailed methodological information is available here):

• Survey purpose (time, space, attention devoted to learning at methodological and fieldwork level, including interviewer training);
• Coverage of non-formal learning (part of non-formal learning occurs as 'guided on-the-job training' (GOJT)). This category, which is important for policy and statistical reasons, is covered only in the AES as the efforts it requires to be properly measured are difficult to afford in the LFS);
• Variables for non-formal learning (the set of variables and categories for deriving the concept of non-formal learning are different across the surveys);
• National questionnaires (the number and the wording of questions to derive relevant variables and categories can differ across surveys as well as their position in the questionnaire);
• Use of proxies (proxy answers, i.e. not provided directly by the designated respondent, are more common in the EU-LFS than it is the case in the AES).

In line with Eurostat perspective, Cedefop views the AES as the most reliable source for comprehensive and more accurate measurement of participation in adult learning. However, its less frequent data collection limits its effectiveness for short-term monitoring. Consequently, the LFS has traditionally been considered a sub-optimal but viable data source. This is even more relevant now, given that the LFS has extended the coverage of adult learning activities from the past 4 weeks to the past 12 months. Having a single reference indicator and one reference source for frequent monitoring of participation in adult learning has clear advantages. At the same time, it is crucial that LFS data be complemented and contextualised with information from the AES.

Implications for monitoring progress

The 2020 Skills Agenda indicated the EU LFS as the reference source for the overall participation rate in adult learning as of 2022. The 2021 Council Resolution on the European Education Area also stated the EU LFS as the reference source for follow up monitoring from 2022 onwards. Considering the recent change in LFS methodology , the Resolution considered the target subject to confirmation and invited to compare the results of AES and LFS, to inform discussions and, if needed, changes to the LFS methodology, or the level of the target.

As far as statistics are concerned, data on participation in adult learning for 2022 are available from the LFS and the AES. From the former, estimates necessarily excludes GOJT, since it is not covered in the survey. From the AES, overall estimates can be derived separately, excluding or including GOJT. Estimates from the 2016 AES, excluding GOJT, were used at the time of setting the targets. This was because it was the only data available at that time that measured participation in adult learning in the past 12 months and could potentially align with the expected, more frequent LFS data, which was intended to become the future reference.

The question is therefore which data source should be used for monitoring progress towards the target from 2022 onwards.

Focussing on 2022, with LFS relevant data being collected for the first time, some institutions make use of both 2022 LFS and AES data. When in need of prioritising or choosing a single source to assess progress towards the established target, the 2022 AES data, excluding guided on the job training, may be given preference.

Cedefop has adopted the multi-source, multi indicator approach in the Key Indicators on VET, and the second approach in the European VET policy dashboard, aligning with preliminary indications from the Standing Group on Indicator and Benchmarks (SGIB) and the Employment Committee Indicator Group (EMCO IG).

Progress: old and new targets

In the previous policy cycle, participation in adult learning (counting learning that took place in the previous four weeks) did not increase by much. The EU did not meet its target of 15% by 2020. Participation peaked at 10.8% in 2019, before dropping to 9.1% in 2020, probably due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Looking beyond 2020, adult participation in lifelong learning in the previous four weeks stood at 12.7% in 2023, with an upward trend over since 2021 (Figure 1).