Alena Zukersteinova: The new report focuses on changes in the number of people that will be available in the future, both in terms of the total population and also the labour force, measured by their highest qualification. This is what we call supply.
The original idea was that the supply forecast would complement the forecast on the future demand for skills, which we published last year; to obtain an indication of how the labour market will develop, you naturally need to compare supply and demand. But because the forecast for demand and supply were not done in parallel, we had to make some choices. We chose to use the most recent data on supply which were therefore not compatible with the data used for demand.
Both these studies are in fact pilots. In the next round, we will compare supply and demand using the same data sets, and identify gaps.
Were you surprised at the interest generated by the first skills forecast?
Torsten Dunkel: Not really, the political momentum was going in that direction for instance, our forecasts fed into the New Skills for New Jobs initiative, launched by the EU Council at the end of 2007. Last year we contributed to last Decembers Communication from the Commission, and in fact for this we extended our forecast, which originally covered the period until 2015, to 2020....
AZ: We actually started working on this issue before the political momentum was there! This gap had been identified, but nobody would take the lead and bring forecasting to the European level. So yes, we were lucky in that forecasting skills needs almost immediately became a priority of the political agenda - but lets also say that we were pro-active in taking on this job.
Did the present global crisis which broke out between the two studies affect your work? Did you consider, for instance, going in a more qualitative direction, or otherwise changing methods?
AZ: We certainly need more qualitative data, but thats another story. But the current situation doesnt really affect the validity of the project; we are projecting longer-term trends. Since we were using data dating back to 1970, there were already several crises incorporated in this data.
We also developed several scenarios, positive and negative though it has to be said that our negative scenario was based on what would happen if Europe fell behind its competitors, a very different situation from a global crisis. In the next forecast update, due early next year, we will also incorporate the potential effects of the crisis.
TD: Discontinuity is the inherent enemy of the forecaster! But it is possible to model non-linearity which is why we have different scenarios. Perhaps well add more in the future.
What is your aim for the Agora conference?
TD: To further raise awareness of forecasting, of what it can offer the policymaker. Its important that we now have close cooperation with the European Commission - DG Employment and DG Education. And of course Cedefops team is organising the conference to present and discuss the results of our skills supply study. We wish to also show where the second step has taken us and where we will be going next.
What we are aiming for is to establish a framework that will allow us to regularly update the forecast. This will take us a step closer to a truly European forecasting system, simultaneously incorporating supply and demand.
AZ: Its important to know what the forecasts can and cant do. Theyre not crystal balls. They should be complemented with contextual information, local data, etc. Currently we are also working on additional sources and tools, to capture the real demand by employers.
TD: Sometimes we are asked whether these forecasts can help an individual choose a career. Of course you can get general ideas from the forecast, but for individuals its more about where their interests and skills lie. On this, guidance and counselling in schools and universities can be of considerable help. Heres a point that could be seen as a policy implication from the forecast - that better guidance systems need to be devised and implemented.
Or lets take another example: policymakers can see from the skills needs forecast something about how the lower-skills labour market works. We may find signs of social dumping, or find that one reason for the disparity between higher qualifications and lower-level jobs is that people are unable to get their skills recognised. This may tell policy-makers that we need more progress on validation systems.
AZ: This is one area which needs further research. In our skills need forecast we found a polarisation between knowledge-intensive and elementary jobs, despite the upward trend for qualifications. We need to find out what is causing this disparity.
And we certainly need to work more on how our results can be applied in practice. What we can be confident about is that in providing this service we are responding to a real need.