PROSIMA apprenticeship market model
Simulation model of the national apprenticeship market (supply and demand).
According to BiBB, the forecast of the apprenticeship market is very complex as it depends on the interaction of four dynamics (population growth, school leavers, labour market, economic development). PROSIMA helps to understand and predict developments in the apprenticeship market and the impact of policy measures that affect the apprenticeship market. Politicians have to react to developments in the apprenticeship market, e.g. to prevent skills shortages in specific sectors or to promote specific occupations. POSIMA helps to understand these interventions and measure their effects.
The model is not explicitly designed to tackle skills mismatch, however developments on the apprenticeship market could explain, lead to, or prevent skills mismatch.
Aim of policy instrument
Econometric model developed on behalf of the Federal Ministry for Education and Research (BMBF).
Main responsible body
Federal Ministry for Education and Research (BMBF)
Developed by the Federal Institute of Vocational Education (BiBB) and the Ruhr University Bochum on behalf of the Federal Ministry for Education and Research (BMBF).
Results are published in the Berufsbildungsbericht (Vocational training report), and so information is disseminated to a wider audience.
Use of labour market intelligence
The instrument itself is a short-term econometric forecasting and simulation model that creates labour market information.
Frequency of updates
The model is updated annually.
The instrument is updated and adapted to new developments anually.
The model allowes a very detailed modelling of the apprenticeship market in Germany (use of 210 determinants). It is innovative in the regard that it is specifically models the German training system, which is very complex and regulated.
Evidence of effectiveness
According to BiBB, predictions of the model were accurate. Results of PROSMIA are published annualy in the Vocational Training Report. Therefore, a wider audience might be aware of this instrument to predict supply and demand on the apprenticeship market.
Engagement of stakeholders
As PROSIMA is a continuous task of the Federal Institute BiBB and results are published in the Vocational Training Report, continuous engagement of stakeholders (understood as all stakeholders that benefit from this kind of LMI, e.g. employers) is institutionalised.
Transferability is dependent on data availability and requires experience in (detailed) modelling. Also, the apprenticeship market in Germany is very fomalised, which might make it more suitable for modelling.
The instrument will continue for the coming years, as it is a continuous task of the BiBB.