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PROSIMA apprenticeship market model

Policy Instrument

PROSIMA apprenticeship market model

Modell für den Ausbildungsmarkt PROSIMA



Since 1999


Fully operational


Policy area

Simulation model of the national apprenticeship market (supply and demand).

Policy goal

According to BiBB, the forecast of the apprenticeship market is very complex as it depends on the interaction of four dynamics (population growth, school leavers, labour market, economic development). PROSIMA helps to understand and predict developments in the apprenticeship market and the impact of policy measures that affect the apprenticeship market. Politicians have to react to developments in the apprenticeship market, e.g. to prevent skills shortages in specific sectors or to promote specific occupations. POSIMA helps to understand these interventions and measure their effects.


Part of broader programme, yet with explicit focus

The model is not explicitly designed to tackle skills mismatch, however developments on the apprenticeship market could explain, lead to, or prevent skills mismatch.

Aim of policy instrument

Administrative level


Main responsible body

Federal Ministry for Education and Research (BMBF)


Developed by the Federal Institute of Vocational Education (BiBB) and the Ruhr University Bochum on behalf of the Federal Ministry for Education and Research (BMBF).


No information

Intended beneficiaries

Results are published in the Berufsbildungsbericht (Vocational training report), and so information is disseminated to a wider audience.


Use of labour market intelligence

The instrument itself is a short-term econometric forecasting and simulation model that creates labour market information.

Financial schemes


Frequency of updates

The model is updated annually.


The instrument is updated and adapted to new developments anually.


No information

Success factors

No information


No information


Slightly innovative

The model allowes a very detailed modelling of the apprenticeship market in Germany (use of 210 determinants). It is innovative in the regard that it is specifically models the German training system, which is very complex and regulated.


Evidence of effectiveness

According to BiBB, predictions of the model were accurate. Results of PROSMIA are published annualy in the Vocational Training Report. Therefore, a wider audience might be aware of this instrument to predict supply and demand on the apprenticeship market.

Engagement of stakeholders

As PROSIMA is a continuous task of the Federal Institute BiBB and results are published in the Vocational Training Report, continuous engagement of stakeholders (understood as all stakeholders that benefit from this kind of LMI, e.g. employers) is institutionalised.


Not easily transferable

Transferability is dependent on data availability and requires experience in (detailed) modelling. Also, the apprenticeship market in Germany is very fomalised, which might make it more suitable for modelling.


The instrument will continue for the coming years, as it is a continuous task of the BiBB.