Description
Country
Focus area
PROSIMA helps to understand and predict developments in the apprenticeship market and the impact of policy measures that affect the apprenticeship market. It produces a simulation model of the national apprenticeship market (supply and demand). Politicians have to react to developments in the apprenticeship market, e.g. to prevent skills shortages in specific sectors or to promote specific occupations. POSIMA helps to understand these interventions and measure their effects.
Link
Reference/weblink
Implementation level
At what level is the initiative implemented?
National
Legal base
Legal base (E.g. Law, regulation, implementing provision, other)
Econometric model developed on behalf of the Federal Ministry for Education and Research (BMBF).
Starting period
TIMESPAN: In what year did the initiative commence?
1999
Perspective
PERSPECTIVE: is the initiative based on evidence derived from skill forecasts or foresight activities?
Yes, through a simulation model of the national apprenticeship market (supply and demand).
Policy area
To which POLICY AREAS(s) does the initiative apply?
Funding
How it is funded?
Funded by national government
Skill mismatch
Skill mismatch target
What type(s) of skills MISMATCH does the initiative aim to addresses?
Other
Several types of Skills mismatch
Skills matching focus
How does the initiative address skills mismatches?
It helps young graduates to choose apprenticeships that match the current demand of skills by employers
Skills delivered
What types of skill does the initiative deliver?
Career management skills
Methods
Methods
What methods of undertaking skills assessments and / or skills anticipation does the policy instrument utilise?
Skills forecasting
Econometric model simulating the national apprenticeship market (supply and demand).
Use of skills intelligence
How is labour market information / skills intelligence used within the initiative?
Results are published in the Berufsbildungsbericht (Vocational training report), and so information is disseminated to a wider audience.
As students interested in vocational training can access the Berufsbildungsbericht (Vocational training report) which includes results from PROSIMA they can also consider those LMI to inform their career-making choices.
As enterprises and sector organisations can access the Berufsbildungsbericht (Vocational training report) which includes results from PROSIMA they can use those LMI in order to take informed strategic business decisions.
Stakeholders
Main responsible body
Main body or organisation with overall responsibility for the initiative.
National ministry
Federal Ministry for Education and Research (BMBF)
Other involved organisations
Which other organisations have a role in the initiative?
Research centres, universities
Federal Institute for Vocational Education and Training (Bibb), in charge of the predictions. Developed in cooperation with the University Bochum.
Other
Employers provide inputs to the model
Beneficiaries
Who are the intended beneficiaries?
Young people making the transition from education into work
The beneficiaries are mainly young people transitioning from school to the labour market through apprenticeships. Anyone who wants/nees to take-up and apprentisheship is a potential beneficiary of the study.
Sustainability
Success factors
SUCCESS FACTORS in the implementation
The model allowes a very detailed modelling of the apprenticeship market in Germany (use of 210 determinants). It is innovative in the regard that it is specifically models the German training system, which is very complex and regulated.
Monitoring and evaluation
MONITORING and EVALUATION: Is progress measured regularly? What are the indicators used to measure progress of the policy instrument? Have any evaluations been conducted?
Anually, the Bibb evaluates and develops the instrument further (in so-called "Up-Date-rounds").
Updates
UPDATES: whether there have been any major updates of the initiative since it has been implemented?
Please describe whether there have been any major updates of the initiative since it was first implemented and what were these and why were they introduced (max. 50 words)
Yes
The model is updated and developed regularly.
Effectiveness
EVIDENCE ON EFFECTIVENESS: How effective is the policy instrument?
According to BiBB, predictions of the model were accurate. Results of PROSIMA are published annualy in the Vocational Training Report. Therefore, a wider audience might be aware of this instrument to predict supply and demand on the apprenticeship market.
Sustainability
SUSTAINABILITY: How sustainable is the policy instrument? Do you expect the instrument to continue over the next few years and why?
The instrument will continue for the coming years, as it is a continuous task of the BiBB.
Other instruments in Germany
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