Skills anticipation in Slovenia (2023 Update)

Summary

Overview of the Slovenian approach

Some skills anticipation activities take place in Slovenia, although there is no comprehensive and co-ordinated system in place. Some progress has taken place in the past few years, however collection of skill information is not systematic. Approaches and classifications used in different surveys might diverge. There is no data collection on demand of occupations, skills or tasks based on a standardised classification such as ESCO or O*Net[i].

 The main activities that are carried out in the country and are relevant to skills anticipation are the following:

• Collection of administrative data on vacancies and unemployment; analysis of relevant data such as those from the Labour Force Survey;
• Employer surveys (carried out by the Employment Service of Slovenia (ESS) and employers’ organisations), as well as surveys by labour market intermediaries and recently by the Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia (SURS). SURS recently started to produce yearly data on occupations;
• Skills forecasts within international networks, primarily CEDEFOP;
• Dialogues with representatives of key stakeholders;
• Ad hoc field-oriented projects involving education professionals, artists, and language professionals.

The Ministry of Labour, Family, Social Affairs and Equal Opportunities (Ministrstvo za delo, družino, socialne zadeve in enake možnosti, MDDSZ), the Ministry of Education, (Ministrstvo za vzgojo in izobraževanje, MVI), the Ministry of Higher Education, Science and Innovation (Ministrstvo za visoko šolstvo, znanost in inovacije) and the Ministry of the Economy, Tourism and Sport (Ministrstvo za gospodarstvo, turizem in šport, MGTŠ) have central roles in the key skills anticipation activities. The Employment Service of Slovenia (ESS), labour market intermediaries and employers’ organisations are also active with several ongoing projects related to skills anticipation.

The Slovenian government has allocated resources and efforts in the development of skills anticipation activities and improvement of the relevant tools. Many of the recent methodological improvements and attempts have been co-financed by the European Social Fund (ESF).

The knowledge gained from skills anticipation activities is primarily available to policy makers and key stakeholders, but is hardly visible to the public, apart from sporadic references to these tools in mass media coverage of the labour market situation. The use of skills anticipation information in the framework of developing occupational standards and vocational education and training (VET) courses is well-developed.

In 2020, Slovenia requested technical assistance from Cedefop to develop labour market forecasts and set up a labour market platform. In the concluding meeting in July 2022, stakeholders highlighted the need to[ii]:

• Foster close cooperation between different ministries, the public employment service and other stakeholders;
• Foster a more transversal use of skills intelligence to address socioeconomic trends, such as population ageing;
• Make data availability and approaches to address data gaps key future priorities;
• Develop sound skills intelligence to address policy needs, and enable individuals choose between education and training options and career opportunities.

Such information should offer a short-, medium- and long-term perspective to understanding labour market trends and skills needs.

Description

Slovenia does not have a comprehensive and co-ordinated system of skills needs anticipation. Several types of activities take place, which focus more on skills assessment. These activities are only weakly coordinated and interrelated. There is a strong reliance on administrative data and information gathered via employers’ surveys and stakeholder dialogue. Some skills anticipation needs can also be generally identified by the economic forecast reports of the Institute of Macroeconomic Analysis and Development (Urad RS za makroekonomske analize in razvoj, UMAR).

Nonetheless, a large-scale project is currently being carried out by the Employment Services of Slovenia (ESS) with co-funding from the ESF to develop more complex skills anticipation methods and better co-ordinate the existing activities.

At the end of 2020, the Ministry of Labour, Family and Social Affairs and Equal Opportunities (MDDSZ) was engaged in revisiting the skills anticipation and matching infrastructure in the country, as part of the Career Platform (CP) project. The project aims at implementing a set of comprehensive and coordinated activities supporting labour market outcomes and skill development. One of the ten components of the project is the collection of online data on skill supply and demand, using ISCO classification. The collection of information is based on voluntary and anonymous responses of labour market participants in the form of a CV. The aim is to facilitate skills matching and labour market transitions and to track labour market developments in a systematic, consistent and cost-efficient manner. Such skills intelligence could better inform current and future demand developments[iii]. The CP also envisages the periodic elaboration of a long-term forecast of occupations (ISCO classification) to be mapped to required skills (SKP 3) based on the well-established Cedefop methodology. The CP is envisaged to offer stakeholders information on: labour market trends, available job offers, career orientation (i.e., impact of additional competences on job opportunities); and on support programmes for career upgrading, resources and scholarships, as well as real-time information on most demanded occupations and skills. The CP will also grant access to outcomes of short-term forecast (next-six months) regarding the most demanded occupations and competences based on existing and enhanced ESS employers’ survey and facilitate job matching profiling services for job seekers and employers. The CP also envisages the periodic elaboration of a long-term forecast of occupations (defined as per the ISCO classification) to be mapped, in order to understand the most required skills based on Cedefop’s skills forecast methodology. Through the envisaged collection of online data and elaboration of short-term and long-term occupation and skill forecast, the CP will provide a strong foundation for anticipating labour market needs.

Aims

The main goals of current developments in skills anticipation activities in Slovenia are to inform policy makers about labour market developments, and to provide data to support the on-going transformation of the vocational education training (VET) and higher education (HE) systems. The development of a co-ordinated system for skills anticipation has been a long-term goal of Slovenian policy: however, it has yet to be achieved.

Legal framework

Currently, there is little or no statutory regulation regarding skills anticipation. There are two main pieces of legislation relevant to the matter. First, the Labour Market Regulation Act (2010)[iv] regulates the duty of employers to notify the Employment Service of Slovenia about vacancies.[v] Secondly, the National Reform Programme of Slovenia 2016-2017[vi] focused, among others, on the effective monitoring of developments in the labour market and better understanding of long-term labour market needs. The Programme set-up a system for monitoring the employment of graduates (eVŠ). The National Reform Programme 2020 focuses on the measures taken to tackle the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. In the field of education, the Programme aims at increasing the involvement of adults in lifelong learning and improving the competencies needed by adults due to labour market needs, job requirements and technology development, greater employability and mobility, and personal development in modern society.

Governance

Lacking a coordinated approach, there is no clearly identified “governing” institution. Tasks and responsibilities related to skills anticipation are shared by the following ministries and government bodies:

• the Ministry of Labour, Family, Social Affairs and Equal Opportunities (MDDSZ) is responsible for planning labour market policies and overseeing the Employment Service of Slovenia (ESS). ESS gathers skills intelligence and publishes analyses based on it;
• the Ministry of Education (MVI) regulates VET and the Ministry of Higher Education, Science and Innovation (MVZI) regulates higher education (HE). They co-operate with MDDSZ to respond to the results of skills anticipation exercises and coordinates the ESS’s large scale skills anticipation system project.

However, the Government Decision of August 2019 requires the Ministry of Labour, Family, Social Affairs and Equal Opportunities in partnership with Employment Service of Slovenia and in cooperation with the Ministry of the Economy, Tourism and Sport, the Ministry of Education, and the Government Office for Development and European Cohesion Policy, to initiate activities to set up a "Skills forecasting platform".[vii]

The role of stakeholders

Besides the ministries involved in skills anticipation activities, the ESS and UMAR hold key roles in running relevant exercises and disseminating the results. Individual employers and employers’ organisations provide significant skills intelligence through their surveys, while they can be involved in decisions relevant to the provision of VET. For example, the Chamber of Commerce and Industry (Gospodarska zbornica Slovenije, GZS) and the Chamber of Craft and Small Businesses (Obrtno-podjetniška zbornica Slovenije, OZS) are involved in dialogue with VET providers in developing a range of activities, for example curricula. The Institute of the Republic of Slovenia for Vocational Education and Training [viii] (Center RS za Poklicno Izobraževanje, CPI) works with stakeholders (the MVI, VET institutions, the GZS, and the OZS) at the national level to co-ordinate dialogue on occupational profiles and standards and promote vocational training to young people.

Target groups

The results from the skills anticipation activities primarily aim to serve policy makers, particularly in the fields of education and employment. Therefore, the key target groups include relevant ministries and national authorities, and VET and HE providers and institutions. Given the central role of the ESS in skills anticipation, career counsellors are another important target group, as relevant skills intelligence is provided to them as input for their work (see section on “Dissemination and use”). In this way, jobseekers, but also prospective students and parents are indirectly targeted.

Funding and resources

Some of the skills anticipation activities and the development of new tools and methodologies are partially financed by the European Social Fund (ESF). Otherwise, funding is provided by the MDDSZ – and thereby to the ESS - and the MVI and MVZI.

Methods and tools

Slovenia’s decentralised approach to skills anticipation relies on administrative labour market data, employers’ surveys, and dialogue with core stakeholders. Most skill needs analyses take place under the ESS skills anticipation activities, the framework of developing occupational standards, and research and development projects. The ESS also analyses future skill needs.[ix]

Skills assessment

Several Competence Centres for Human Resources Development (KOC)[x] programmes have been launched by the Slovene Human Resource Development and Scholarship Fund to promote the delivery of adequate training and counselling activities to employees, based on the identification of training and skills needs. The KOCs’ main purpose is to encourage co-operation among companies at sectoral level to develop a model for defining skills profiles for specific professions or jobs, and to tackle employees’ skill shortages through targeted training.

KOC partnerships cover a very wide range of industries and sectors, including the food industry, tourism (e.g., ski resorts), logistics, toolmaking, construction, the chemical industry, the electrical industry, computing, utilities, advanced information and telecommunications, biotechnology and pharmacy, private security, material development, and advanced technologies in the factories of the future. During 2011-2015, the KOCs developed 19 models of sectoral skill needs that are valuable information sources for the Centre for Vocational Education in identifying priorities for the vocational education and training (VET) system. 10 KOC operate in this field, developed from September 2019 to May 2022, as a second part of the programming period 2014-2020. The first phase (2017-2019) was successfully completed in June 2019, when 17 KOCs were financed, including 307 companies with 49,289 employees. 38,016 employees participated in the training. In the second phase, more emphasis was attributed on connecting companies in industries or in the field of Smart Specialisation Strategy. The companies gain the opportunity to train employees according to the needs of the company. With the help of experts, a competency model is prepared, and the largest skills deficits are identified, based on which the training model is designed.

The eVŠ platform is developed and provides information on the employability of higher education graduates in the country (Ministry of Education, MVI). Students’ and graduates’ records included in the eVŠ are an official source of information on student status. This information is used by public institutions that grant or are responsible for scholarships, subsidies for nutrition, transport, and dormitories, as well as health insurance, pensions, and student work. Another function of eVŠ is the prevention of student enrolment that are no longer entitled to publicly financed full-time studies in tertiary education (both short- and full-cycle). It also provides an analytical tool for analysing paths from secondary to tertiary education and then into the labour market.

The Statistical Office (SURS) provides quarterly survey data on the number of vacancies by sector of economic activity. This data allows for the most aggregated overview on demand for occupations at sectoral level.

Employment Service of Slovenia (ESS) provides twice a year survey data concerning labour shortages and forecast employment by type of profession.

ESS uses descriptive statistics, stock taking, skills and jobs surveys, and qualitative research to develop skills intelligence.[xi]

Skills forecasts

In the last quarter of 2020, the project "Skills Forecasting Platform", a comprehensive online information system for labour matching and skills anticipation, was launched. It is considered of key importance in tackling future challenges in the labour market and education system. The main objective of the project was to develop a system for forecasting knowledge and skill needs and identifying gaps in competencies for the short-, medium- and long-term. This is expected to upgrade employees’ competencies and skills in accordance with labour market needs and strengthen the competitiveness of the Slovenian economy. The project will also help to establish institutional cooperation among key stakeholders in the field of labour market and skills forecasting: policy makers, education providers, and representative institutions of employers. The project is managed by the Ministry of Labour, Family, Social Affairs and Equal Opportunities (MDDSZ) in cooperation with the Employment Service of Slovenia.

The Skills forecasting platform is expected to contribute to a well-functioning labour market and the creation of quality jobs, by improving the matching of supply and demand in the labour market. It will include a transparent job search interface; matching support tools; information on existing and future labour market needs (the latter based on forecasts of occupational needs and competences); and information needed for skills development and career guidance.

The objectives are:

• upgrading short-term forecasting professions (up to 1 year) of skills based on existing methods and tools;
• developing a methodology for medium (3-5 years) and long-term (up to 10 years) forecasting;
• establishing institutional cooperation of key stakeholders for further development, use and expansion of the platform.

The project implementation started in May 2021 and its first phase has run until March 2023. In 2021, several activities were implemented, including preparation of the project timetable, adoption of the annual communication plan, organisation of presentations of foreign practices addressing long-term labour market forecasts and matching models, and formation of the advisory group for the Skills forecasting platform.

ESS is working with employers via surveys to achieve a proxy sample of vacancies in the short term. ESS’s report Employment Forecast[xii] is the key, national-level skills anticipation exercise in Slovenia. It is based on a survey of a representative sample of employers with 10 or more employees. In June 2020 the survey involved 2,181 employees, representing a 40 per cent response rate.[xiii] The data are presented in the “Employment Forecast” report on short-term labour and skills needs. Analysis of labour and skills demand and actual supply (c.f. unemployed people) provides information on short-term occupational and qualification mismatches in the labour market. This bi-annual survey allows the anticipation of employment demands over the next six months. Data are presented by occupation and sector. In addition, an indication is provided of the (general) skills that employers report as being in demand.

The forecast of labour demand needs for the period 2021-2035 provides a detailed insight into future occupational needs, based on ESCO 3 level classification. It covers 125 professions. The data used for preparing the forecast come from the Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia (SURS); the Institute of macroeconomic analysis (UMAR), EUROSTAT and the Ageing Working Group (AWG). The forecast methodology follows the Cedefop methodology (Cedefop, 2012) adjusted for data constraints or different data sources[xiv].

New forecasting methods were developed under the project “Increasing effective coordination of supply and demand in the labour market (2016-2022)”,[xv] co-ordinated by ESS[xvi]. The project aimed at improving the matching between labour supply and demand, through high-quality forecasting of needs in the labour market. It addressed the lack of appropriate instruments and modern tools for high-quality forecasting, as well as the lack of integration between stakeholders (public institutions, business associations, research institutions, social partners). The matching includes skills assessment of the workforce (e.g., those in employment, first-time jobseekers, unemployed people) and employers’ skills demands. This new, more advanced skills-based matching (i.e. “matching engine”) is expected to allow for more efficient placement services and, in the long term, improved skills forecasting. The initiative aimed to develop a competency taxonomy and establish a competency-based employment model for more effective labour market supply and demand matching. It also sought to create a model for identifying employers' short-term labour market needs for skills and competencies, primarily through the Employment Forecaster. Additionally, the focus was on developing multi-channel services that emphasize modern IT technologies, solutions, and services aligned with user needs and expectations, integrating service delivery across web, phone, and mobile platforms.

In 2018, the public employment service of Slovenia completed a pilot project called ‘Occupational barometer’, to predict future changes in the labour market and determine training of the unemployed according to labour-market needs. Qualitative research was conducted by some regional ESS offices to classify occupations in three groups (i.e., shortage, balance, surplus)[xvii] and identify reasons for labour shortages. The project was then implemented in 2019 by all regional ESS offices, and it is still ongoing. For many, this is the most widely used and appreciated skills forecasting tool to date.

Two to four times a year, the Institute of Macroeconomic Analysis and Development develops an internal document, the “Forecast of Economic Trends” (Napoved gospodarskih gibanj).[xviii] This report provides an analysis of economic trends, including forecasts of employment trends. The latter are based on national accounts (Statistical Register of Employment). The forecast is disaggregated only at sectoral level, as data by occupation or skill level are not available.

There are also a few ad-hoc analyses and pilot studies taking place in the country. For example, the future-oriented study on Health workforce forecasting study in Slovenia (2015-2035)[xix] sought to provide input for the strategic planning of human resources in the health sector. The forecasting study was based on the National Health Care Providers Database (the registry of health professionals). Researchers first assessed the quality of data sources and then developed a mathematical model to forecast the future number of physicians and nurses required. The model was based on demographic characteristics of the current workforce, including anticipated retirement, mortality and unemployment rates, and the expected number of new graduates.

Skills foresight

ESS uses interviews and surveys with stakeholders and experts’ workshops, meetings, panels to develop a future-looking analysis.[xx]

As noted above, the KOCs recognise the importance of foreseeing future skills needs; and a skills foresight element was included in a tender for services to be delivered to the KOCs.

Other skills anticipation practices

Many Slovenian employers run some form of skills needs analysis, according to the Cranet survey, with the last round being implemented in 2021.[xxi]

The Chamber of Commerce and Industry of Slovenia also runs projects which link skills anticipation with training. For example, the EU-funded skillME project (2014-2017) identified skill gaps in the advanced manufacturing sector; developed curricula addressing the skill gaps; and integrated the curricula into the VET system[xxii]. In addition, there is an ongoing study under the MVZI focusing on developing a methodology to assess the need for study programmes at national level as well as a new goal-oriented research project to develop a system of monitoring the needs for educators across different levels of education, focusing on primary and secondary level[xxiii].

Dissemination and use

Overall, apart from sporadic reporting in the mass media related to labour market situation, there is limited information available on how skills anticipation information is disseminated and used by stakeholders in Slovenia.

The main dissemination channels regard the ESS online portal as well as conferences, executive summaries and published reports, handbooks and guidebooks for jobseekers and companies, and presentations of good practice for projects.[xxiv] ESS also uses skills intelligence to provide guidance and information to externals (e.g., VET providers, other educational institutions), to redefine or re-design active labour market policies and up- and reskilling programmes in line with changing skills requirements, as well as to support career guidance counsellors.[xxv]

Use of skills anticipation in policy

Skills intelligence gathered and published by the Statistical Office and the ESS is available to all stakeholders through the ESS’ online portal.

Administrative data and the findings of the UMAR’s Employment Forecast are used to:

• prepare and implement active labour market policies;
• inform career guidance activities;
• inform the development of VET programmes and occupational standards.

Target groups’ uses of skills anticipation outputs

Besides policy makers and stakeholders, regional career guidance experts also use skills intelligence data in their work. Skills intelligence supports these experts’ work when advising employers looking for workers (especially in areas with skills deficits); as well as supports them in their policy-oriented discussions with other stakeholders.

Bibliography

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Endnotes