11 DEC 2023
Data insights

Skills anticipation in Norway (2023)

Summary

Overview of the Norwegian approach

In Norway, skills forecasts and employer surveys have been conducted for decades, and an extensive amount of relevant data are available. Updates of the different sources are frequent. The key skills anticipation activities undertaken are:

  • an annual employer survey on skill shortages, by occupation, industry, and regionally by county;
  • quantitative skill forecasting, by educational level, educational field, and industry;
  • skills assessments of important drivers of change.

Skills forecasts are undertaken by the national statistics office, Statistics Norway (hereafter SSB). An annual survey of employers in both private and public sectors is conducted by the Norwegian Labour and Welfare Administration (hereafter NAV). SSB’s forecasts have been conducted on demand by different ministries, while NAV’s survey is a joint effort between different levels within NAV (state, county, and local level). The analyses carried out by SSB are independent from the survey conducted by NAV. In addition to SSB’s and NAV’s analyses, numerous organisations produce their own analyses, reports, and forecasts on employment by occupation, education or industry.

In 2017, a Norwegian Committee on Skill Needs (Kompetansebehovsutvalget, hereafter KBU) was appointed by the government for three years, to provide the best possible evidence-based assessment of Norway’s future skill needs. KBU brought together key sources of information on skills needs and described these sources in annual Norwegian Official Reports. In 2021, KBU was appointed for six more years. To free up capacity, the Norwegian Directorate of Higher Education and Skills (hereafter HK-dir) took over the task to update and develop the knowledge base that KBU produced in its first period. KBU was now to concentrate on skills analyses and assessments.

There are 18 members of KBU, including the main social partners, individual analysts/researchers and one representative from the county councils (fylkeskommunene). The Chair is the director of HK-dir. The Chair is independent of the Ministry of Education and Research. The Committee has its own secretariat at HK-dir.

The publications from SSB, NAV, KBU and HK-dir are available online. Furthermore, the web-based analysis system microdata.no has been developed by SSB and the Norwegian Agency for Shared Services in Education and Research (Sikt), making new and innovative analyses possible, using detailed and mergeable microdata.

The results of the skills anticipation exercises in Norway are utilised by a range of stakeholders. A key challenge is communicating the results in an easy-to-understand manner to different target groups.

 

Description

Over the past decade, steps have been taken towards the formulation of skills anticipation in Norway. In 2013, a project on future skills needs (Prosjekt fremtidige kompetansebehov) was launched by the Ministry of Education and Research (Kunnskapsdepartementet). The project was part of the broader parallel development of a national strategy for skills policy. The Ministry co-financed SSB’s skills forecasts, together with other ministries over the years, as well as other innovative skills analyses, such as scenario analyses based on combining insights from key stakeholders participating in workshops with quantitative forecasts. The project on future skill needs helped communicate the results of skills anticipation through reports, dialogue meetings, and seminars. Those involved in the project also participated in meetings with the county councils on skills needs at the county level, organised by the Ministry of Education and Research, and the Ministry of Local Government and Modernisation (Kommunal- og moderniseringsdepartementet).

While developing its own skills anticipation approach, Norway has been eager to learn from experiences in other countries, and the project on future skill needs looked further into the systems in Ireland, Finland, and Sweden. The project ran till the end of 2016. In early 2017, the Norwegian Strategy for Skills Policy (Nasjonal kompetansepolitisk strategi, NKPS) was launched in Norway, based on OECD’s recommendations to Norway through the Skills Strategy project (which ran parallel to the project on skills needs at the Ministry). One of the results in the Strategy, was the appointment of the Norwegian Committee on Skill Needs (KBU). The committee was appointed for its first period in 2017, lasting three years. In 2021, KBU was appointed for a second period, until 2027.

KBU uses many sources of information on skills needs, such as forecasts by Statistics Norway (SSB) and the annual employer survey by the Norwegian Labour and Welfare Administration (NAV). SSB and NAV conduct their skill needs analyses independently of one another. KBU combines the results from SSB’s and NAV’s reports, together with a range of other sources, to provide the best possible evidence-based assessment of Norway’s future skill needs. Brought together, all these different sources provide comprehensive information and indications of the current and future demand for, and supply of, skills.

Aims

KBU analyses and assesses the future skills needs, both for the short, medium, and long term. The motivation for the establishment and continuation of KBU has been that “dropout and misinformed choices in education, learning and work, are costly, for the individual and society”. KBU’s work and products “should be made relevant to the development of skill policies by national and regional authorities, including planning in the education sector”.

Legal framework

KBU reports to the Ministry of Education and Research and must act in accordance with its mandate. SSB and NAV each have roles and obligations determined by law and by their ministries (see below). NAV also have roles and obligations that are determined by the municipalities. SSB’s and NAV’s roles and obligations are not exclusively related to skills anticipation.

Governance

Skills anticipation is the responsibility of the main actors mentioned above, falling under the jurisdiction of different government ministries:

  • SSB is academically independent, but administratively subordinate to the Ministry of Finance (Finansdepartementet). SSB’s forecasts, described in this text, have been conducted on demand from different ministries.
  • NAV is subordinate to the Ministry of Labour and Social Inclusion (Arbeids- og inkluderingsdepartementet) and the municipalities. NAV’s survey among employers is a joint effort between different levels within NAV (state, county, and local level).
  • KBU delivers its reports to the Ministry of Education and Research
  • HK-dir is subordinate to the Ministry of Education and Research

SSB is responsible for long-term skills forecasting, while the work of NAV on skills needs is mainly short term. KBU’s task is to analyse and assess the future skills needs, both for the short, medium, and long term.

The role of stakeholders

SSB, NAV, KBU, and HK-dir play key roles as producers of the skills anticipation activities of Norway. There are many stakeholders of this system, in addition to those producing the activities, including ministries and directorates, the social partners, and education and training providers. The stakeholders all contribute with insights, knowledge, and new information, either by taking part in the skills anticipation exercises or by debating the findings from these activities. Only when the different stakeholders’ perspectives are put together, can we get a complete overview of the challenges and dilemmas related to future skills needs.

As in the other Scandinavian countries, social partnership has a long history in policymaking in Norway. By including the main social partners in KBU, the government has further strengthened the social partners' role in helping form the basis for planning and strategic decision making related to meeting skills needs. KBU is still, as in its first period, research oriented. In the mandate for the second period, the importance of utilising the experience and knowledge of the social partners is stressed. 

Target groups

KBU’s assessment is meant to form the bases for planning and strategic decision making of both authorities, regionally and nationally. The information from KBU, SSB, NAV and HK-dir is useful to both ministries, directorates within ministries, researchers, analysts, government agencies, social partners, jobseekers, education/training providers, and labour market intermediaries. Furthermore, the analyses and reports of SSB and NAV are intended to the wider public.

Funding and resources

There is no specific overall budget that covers all the different skills anticipation exercises in Norway. SSB and NAV receives funding from the Norwegian government. Each institution is allocated a yearly operating budget, based upon past expenditures and future responsibilities. The Norwegian parliament (Stortinget) makes the final decision whether to accept the budget.

In addition to the general funding from the Ministry of Finance, SSB also receives financing from other stakeholders for providing separate analyses, tables, and reports, on request. One example is the projections of supply and demand of educational groups, on behalf of different ministries. The production of NAV’s analyses, statistics, research and development is based on state financing. However, the annual survey on skill shortages is (partly state financed and) partly financed by the municipalities, since the survey is a joint effort between different levels within NAV (state, county, and local level).

The Norwegian Committee on Skill Needs has an annual budget limit determined by the Ministry of Education and Research.

Methods and tools

Skills anticipation consists of both skills assessment, skills forecasts, skills foresight, and a range of other skills anticipation practices.

Skills assessment

KBU is to produce at least one report every second year, analysing and assessing Norway’s future skills needs, nationally and regionally. From 2018 to 2020 it published three annual Norwegian Official Reports (Norges offentlige utredninger, hereafter NOU). In these reports, KBU brought together key sources of information on Norway’s future skills needs. The first reports were based on SSB’s forecasts and NAV’s survey, combined with a substantial amount of data as well as a range of other sources, including both national and international research.

In the second period, KBU’s reports are no longer published as NOUs. The first report from KBU in its second period was finalised in May 2022. In the report, KBU discusses the role of higher vocational education (fagskole) in meeting current and future skills demand. A more comprehensive report, published in 2023, covers different educational levels, occupations and industries, regarding skills  needed for the green transition.

Skills forecasts

Skills forecasts are part of the activities of the research department of the national statistics office. As far back as in 1994, SSB published forecasts comparing the supply and demand for labour by different educational groups. Since 2013, SSB has produced skills forecasts more regularly, resulting in a main report every second or third year, most recently in 2020. The forecast horizon is typically 15–20 years. In the most recent report, the forecast horizon was 2040.

The most recent report covers four educational attainment levels, (1) primary and lower secondary school, (2) upper secondary school, (3) bachelor’s level, and (4) master’s level or higher. In addition, unspecified education is treated separately. In 2021, nearly 138 000 persons in the age group 16 years or older had an unspecified education, around 126 000 of which were immigrants. This implies that among all immigrants in this age group, nearly 17 percent have an unspecified education. In SSB’s statistical tables, SSB uses assumed (imputed) values for this group at the aggregate level, but these rough approximations are not applied in the sophisticated forecast models. Higher vocational education (fagskole) is not treated separately in SSB’s projections. At the upper secondary level, SSB distinguishes between vocational and general education. SSB distinguishes between different educational fields within higher education. The aggregation of educational fields has varied over the years.

Supply and demand are projected by separate economic models. The supply projections depend on the demographic structure of the population and educational choices observed in recent years. Demand is determined by projecting the composition of employment by educational attainment in different industries, combined with assumptions about how the economy will develop. The imbalances shown by combining supply and demand are available by educational attainment level and educational field. The published results have only been at the national level.

In addition to these overall forecasts, SSB also publishes projections of supply and demand at the national level for specific educational groups or field of study. These projections were most recently updated in 2023, both for kindergarten and teaching and for health and care. The projection horizon is 2040 for both reports.

Skills foresight

Skills foresight activities are not undertaken on a regular basis in Norway. Economics Norway (Samfunnsøkonomisk analyse) however published scenario analyses at the request of the Ministry of Education and Research in 2015 and 2016. The reports from Economics Norway used Statistics Norway’s projections as the point of departure, discussing how the projections would change given different trajectories. The outline of different trajectories was based on workshops with key stakeholders. Other ad hoc scenario analyses have taken place over the recent years, where the topics and methods have varied.

Other skills anticipation practices

As already mentioned, numerous organisations produce their own forecasts and reports, many of which focus on specific sectors or occupations. One example is The Confederation of Norwegian Enterprise (NHO), Norway’s largest employer organisation. Every year, NHO publishes a skills barometer (NHOs kompetansebarometer), reporting on NHO members’ skills needs. Another example is the Norwegian Association of Local and Regional Authorities (KS), which is the organisation for all local governments in Norway and Norway’s largest public sector employer organisation. KS provides both an employer monitor, as well as projections of recruitment demand. There are also examples of reports from labour unions, such as the work-life monitor produced annually by the Confederation of Vocational Unions (YS).

Another source of information is the Regional Network of the Central Bank of Norway. The network provides information on the scarcity of labour and the consequences of this, regionally, based on interviews with employers four times a year. Different research institutions conduct the research on behalf of the central bank. Another source of information is Panda, which is a tool for projecting developments in the population and economy at the regional level. Members of the Panda group are 10 county councils, the Ministry of Local Government and Regional Development (Kommunal- og distriktsdepartementet), and Innovation Norway.

The Nordic Institute for Studies of Innovation, Research and Education (NIFU) has conducted graduate surveys since 1972, asking graduates from higher education how they consider the match between their own education and job opportunities. The most recent report is from 2022.

Among the many skills anticipation practices, a key source is NAV’s annual survey among employers (NAVs bedriftsundersøkelse). Estimates of skills shortages are based on a questionnaire sent to a sample of Norwegian firms. In the most recent survey, around 10 800 firms answered the survey. The survey asks employers if they have failed to recruit workers to a job opening over the past three months or had to employ someone with lower or different skills than those they were looking for. If so, the employers are asked to state whether this was due to a lack of qualified job seekers. If this is confirmed, the employers are asked to state how many job positions in which occupations were affected. The main report focuses on the national level, but also shows regional variations. The detailed results are available in an online report, and a spreadsheet. Each county council is responsible for its own county report.

Labour market and skills data that can be used in skills anticipation practices is publicly available in Norway: SSB and NAV regularly publish labour market statistics, and HK-dir publishes statistics on student applicants and graduates. In addition to this publicly available statistics, the web-based analysis system microdata.no has been developed by SSB and the Norwegian Agency for Shared Serviced in Education and Research (Sikt), giving students and those working for a higher education institution, ministries and their directorates, as well as researchers, access to large amounts of detailed and mergeable individual-level anonymized data on, for instance, employment by occupation, education level, industry and age groups nationally and regionally.

Dissemination and use

Use of skills anticipation in policy

Skills anticipation is used in policy, as seen by references throughout different policy documents, such as government white papers. The results are also often used in meetings, seminars and so on concerning specific policy issues. There is, however, not a standard or systematised link between skills intelligence and policy updates. Rather, policy updates will depend on which political parties are in power and their priorities, available budgets, status quo, and the overall trends concerning skills needs, and the final decisions made by the parliament.

KBU is to “facilitate and stimulate open dialogue and discussion about society’s skills needs with different stakeholders and society more generally”. KBU does so by, for instance, by arranging open access seminars, by presenting key findings as invited speakers at different meetings or conferences, or by combining committee meetings with visits to stakeholders, such as an educational institution. Furthermore, KBU’s work and products “should be made relevant to the development of skill policies by national and regional authorities, including planning in the education sector”. For instance, a government white paper published in March 2023 on the future skills needs in Norway states that its descriptions of skill needs in Norway to a large extent is based on KBU’s analyses.

Target groups’ uses of skills anticipation outputs

There is a range of target groups using skills anticipation outputs.  Although the wider public is the main target group, a key challenge regards results from different reports pointing towards different directions, and to communicate the results to different target groups. Some of the statistical and analytical reports may not be fully understandable to non-statisticians.  

HK-dir was assigned the task to update and continue the knowledge base that KBU produced in the first period, to free up KBU’s capacity for analyses and assessments. Furthermore, HK-dir already provided an overview of educations and careers, through utdanning.no, an official Norwegian national education and career portal. The portal has been developed in collaboration with study providers and professional bodies.

Norwegian law guarantees the right to get access to educational and vocational guidance. The data gathered by the skills anticipation activities may be useful to those making choices and those providing them with guidance. Balanced guidance requires that the simplifying assumptions underlying the projections are well understood and communicated by career guidance providers. Online sources of information, such as the ones provided by utdanning.no, can be useful for these user groups.

 

Please cite this document as:  Cedefop. (2023). Skills anticipation in Norway. Skills intelligence: data insights. URL [accessed DATE]

Bibliography