11 DEC 2023
Data insights

Skills anticipation in Italy (2023 Update)

Summary

Overview of the Italian approach

Skills anticipation activities in Italy provide information on current and likely future skills demand or needs. Such activities are mostly intended to guide people make education, training or employment related decisions. Skills anticipation activities include:

  • Skills assessments, such as the national survey of skill needs conducted by the National Institute for the Public Policy Analysis (Istituto Nazionale per l’Analisi delle Politiche Pubbliche or INAPP), the Excelsior Survey on professional profiles and skills demand by the Italian Union of the Chambers of Commerce (Unioncamere); the Survey on the labour market outcomes of tertiary graduates by the inter-university consortium AlmaLaurea; and local level surveys carried out by regions and autonomous provinces;
  • Skills forecasting by Unioncamere, INAPP, the National Agency for Active Labour Market Policy (Agenzia Nazionale per le Politiche Attiche del Lavoro or ANPAL) and the AlmaLaurea surveys;
  • Other skills surveys implemented by employers’ associations and training institutions (including universities).

A high number of institutions collect, analyse and provide skills anticipation-related data, using different classifications and methods to serve differing objectives. Such heterogeneity exists because almost all responsibility for education, training and the labour market is at the local administrative level (mainly regions and autonomous provinces) with limited overall national coordination of skills anticipation activities. Reforms such as the ‘National Plan for Digital Schools’ (2015), the ‘Jobs Act’ (2014) and the ‘Industry 4.0 Plan’ (2017-2020) tried to tackle the fragmented provision of skills anticipation information. Although the overall approach to skills anticipation has traditionally been fragmented, a higher level of national coordination has been pursued in the past years, starting with an agreement of 2015[i] on common definitions and classifications to be used by all organisations and entities engaged in skills anticipation.

Skills anticipation activities in Italy face several challenges. First, there exists a plethora of skills anticipation exercises which differ in their methodology, time spans, frequency, level of aggregation, and even definition of ‘skills’. The level of coordination at the national level remains limited, although progress has been made in the past years. Secondly, the structure of the Italian productive system makes skills anticipation particularly difficult. Most enterprises in Italy are micro, small or medium: the structure, organisation and functioning of such companies makes it hard for employers to make predictions on their skill needs. Finally, the results of skills anticipation exercises are only scarcely disseminated (and therefore cannot be available for use to policymakers and individuals).

Description

Skills anticipation activities are implemented at both national and local levels.

At national level the following activities take place:

  • A national survey of occupational profiles and audit of skill needs promoted by INAPP [ii], an institute under the Ministry of Labour and Social Policies. The survey is realised in collaboration with ISTAT every fifth year. The data collected by the INAPP-ISTAT survey so far has been integrated into a platform called  Information System on Occupations (Sistema Informativo Integrato sulle Professioni) [iii], which aims to provide information on occupations using a variety of data sources generated by institutional partners. Data from the Information System on Occupations is accessible on INAPP’s website. The latter includes, a list of required skills, for each occupational profile, ranked by complexity and importance, as reported by employers. It also includes projections on future labour demand, and links to online portals containing relevant job offers. The latest data available refers to 2017, but INAPP is currently working to update the Information System on Occupations.
  • The Excelsior Project by the Italian Union of the Chambers of Commerce (Unioncamere), which maps labour demand and related skills needs. The project is based on survey data collected from employers on a monthly basis. It offers information on labour demand (for each month and trimester) across sectors, levels of qualification, employers’ type, and location (at the provincial level). The different outputs of the project include a database, monthly statistical tables, and yearly publications.
  • The annual survey by AlmaLaurea, which collects information on the profile and employment outcomes of university graduates is carried out since 1989: The results of the survey are available as data and presented in annual publications.

At the local level, there are several activities aimed at mapping, understanding and forecasting training and skill needs. At the regional level there are periodic surveys and, in some regions, labour market observatories (Osservatori del Mercato del Lavoro) that provide skills anticipation data and analyses. These generally fall under the supervision of relevant institutions in the regions and autonomous provinces. At the local level (i.e., Regions and Autonomous Provinces), skills anticipation activities tend to depend upon the priorities of local policymakers. They cover a range of local issues, including sectoral analysis and activities related to European Social Fund (ESF)-funded projects.

Aims

The most comprehensive skills anticipation tool is the Information System on Occupations, which has been developed by INAPP and ISTAT. Latest available data is from 2017, but INAPP is working to update it. It has three main objectives:

  • Improving the national classification of occupations (classificazione delle professioni) thereby allowing a common framework for all anticipation activities;
  • Providing a national level skills assessment and forecast based on occupational profiles; and
  • Providing a web platform on which data from a wide variety of sources are collected and made available to final users.

More generally, the overall aim of the skills anticipation system in Italy is twofold. First, to support public policy design in the fields of training and education and employment; secondly, to provide labour market intermediaries (e.g. guidance experts, employment and placement services, matching services – both public and private – and training providers) with the information to assist individuals to make decisions about education, training and/or employment.

Legal framework

The Italian Constitution, following its 2001 reform, gives regions and autonomous provinces full competence in regulating and managing initial vocational training, labour market policies (except for the general norms), employment services (including matching services) and education and training guidance for students (together with the Ministry of Education’s Regional Offices). Accordingly, the way in which skills anticipation is carried out and regulated is decided at the regional/local level. At national level, INAPP, directly linked to the Ministry of Labour and Social Policies, seeks to coordinate activities across Italy.

Governance

The Ministry of Labour and Social Policies (Ministero del Lavoro e delle Politiche Sociali), at national level, and the regions and autonomous provinces, at local level, have responsibility for implementing skills anticipation activities. Numerous national actors share their data with INAPP using the occupational profile system, including:

  • ISTAT with Labour Force Survey (LFS) data
  • The Ministry of Labour and Social Policies (offering data collected through the website Cliclavoro, which is designed to support matching labour demand and supply rather than function as a skills anticipation tool)
  • The National Institute for Work Accidents Insurance (Istituto Nazionale Assicurazione contro gli Infortuni sul Lavoro, Inail) for data on work accidents
  • The Unioncamere, with the Excelsior database
  • The National Agency for Active Labour Policy (ANPAL), which carries out analysis, monitoring and evaluation of active policies and employment services. The regions and autonomous provinces with their Labour Market Observatories (where they exist) and various surveys.

The role of stakeholders

The main stakeholders of the skills anticipation system are policymakers (at national and regional levels), and research institutions. Coordination of the system is carried out at a national level, and given the role of regional governments, it remains a challenge. While the presence of local observatories and the range of anticipation policies at the regional and local levels provide detailed information, this has come at the price of using different methodologies and classifications. The intent to develop a more cohesive approach in the last decade has led to the creation of the Information System on Occupations (coordinated by INAPP). The system aims at improving the fragmented situation of skills anticipation activities by integrating data from different sources and creating structural links between them. However, much work is still required to ensure that the information is consistently updated, new sources are added, and information is effectively disseminated.

Efforts have also been made to harmonise different existing definitions of ‘skills’, as inconsistencies in the use of language creates challenges too. INAPP, for example, launched a platform called 'Atlas of Work and Qualifications’ containing information for a wide range of jobs: the description of individual activities, the expected products and services, links to regulatory sources that govern such occupations, and requirements for practicing these occupations in the country. Although not strictly related to skills anticipation, the platform promotes the use of a language common to both the world of work and the relevant training institutions.

Policymakers at both national and regional levels are institutionally responsible for implementing skills anticipation systems, and for using their results in shaping and developing national or local level policies. Research institutions generally support central and local institutions as well as social partners in designing and implementing the different activities and surveys which feed skills anticipation activities.

Target groups

The intended target groups vary according to the type of skills anticipation instruments available. The most relevant target groups are local governments, training institutions (universities included), labour market intermediaries and individuals in general (mainly students and jobseekers). In particular, INAPP, with its Information System on Occupations, mainly targets the public employment service (servizi per l’impiego) and policymakers at different levels. Its skills anticipation tools are potentially useful for training institutions, students, jobseekers, employers, and researchers. AlmaLaurea, with its annual reports, primarily targets universities in its network (providing them with annual graduate profile reports and an annual report on the occupational destination of their graduates). Upper-second level students who are about to enrol in universities are an important target group as well (through a dedicated career guidance service). Recent graduates and companies are also surveyed. The Excelsior Survey conducted by the Unioncamere targets policymakers and training institutions operating at national, regional and local levels.

Educational institutions and training providers use skills anticipation survey results both for informing their strategies and for supporting student guidance and counselling. Trade unions and employers’ organisations are mostly involved in national or local level boards or committees that oversee steering and monitoring the skills anticipation activities. Frequently, the boards/committees are coordinated by an institution which is formally responsible for education, training, employment or local development policies, depending on the particular issue being addressed. Employers’ associations also act as direct customers and users of skills anticipation aimed at supporting the planning of continuous vocational training at the sectoral level. Nonetheless, the direct influence of skills anticipation on public policy has been traditionally weak.

Funding and resources

There are no clear figures on skills anticipation funding in Italy. The volume of actors involved in skills anticipation activities makes it difficult to identify the scale of expenditure. Much of the funding for skills anticipation is supplied at the local level, given that responsibility for skills anticipation rests largely with local authorities. However, some national level funding is provided for some actors. INAPP, for which the Ministry of Labour and Social Policies provides funding, had a budget of €103 million in 2021 however, this sum also covers activities other than research relating to vocational education and training (VET) and employment. AlmaLaurea, had a total budget of €4.8 million in 2022, with most of it coming from university funding.

Methods and tools

There are several skills anticipation activities conducted in Italy, focusing mainly on skills assessment and skills forecasting.

Skills assessment

The main skills survey in the country is the National Survey on Occupational Profiles (Indagine campionaria sulle professioni). It is carried out by INAPP every five years (the first one conducted in 2007), and it addresses 16,000 workers who are representative of the approximately 800 occupational profiles used by ISTAT and INAPP. The results feed the Information System on Occupations. The third edition of the Sample Survey on Professions (ICP) was launched in 2019, but results have yet to be published. Data collected include the expertise and skills needed for a range of occupations along with tasks undertaken. Several dimensions of work activity are analysed: knowledge, skills, attitudes, work styles, work conditions, general work activities and values. For each of these items, the survey assesses their importance in the occupation and the level of complexity of the item required to perform the job.

In 2014 and 2017, INAPP conducted two employer surveys, the ‘Audit Survey of Professional Needs’ (Audit dei fabbisogni professionali). INAPP conducted face-to-face interviews with a sample of 35,000 private firms (excluding public employers). The main goal of the surveys was to gather qualitative information on shortages or lack of specific knowledge or skills relating to tasks across specific occupations.

The survey by AlmaLaurea uses a panel of people who graduated from the 75 universities in its network (covering 80 per cent of Italian universities graduates). Since 1998, data are gathered on graduates immediately after graduation and follow up data is sought one, three, and five years following graduation. AlmaLaurea offers a match-making service between graduates looking for employment and graduate recruiters.

The Excelsior Survey is a nationally representative annual survey of around 100,000 Italian companies, implemented in 1997. The survey, coordinated by Unioncamere, collects information on job profiles into which companies are looking to recruit people[iv]. Since 2010, Excelsior collects information on skills needs, particularly general and transversal skills, and provides an indication of skills shortages. It is implemented within the Italian National Statistical System (called Sistema Statistico Nazionale, SISTAN). It deals with the type of vacancies offered by companies, the level of education and experience required of applicants, whether training is provided at the point of recruitment, and the difficulties experienced in recruiting people. In 2022, Unioncamere launched an online platform called Excelsiorienta. The platform targets students of lower and upper secondary schools and their families, and it aims at providing information and guidance on how to transition between education and work. The platform includes a self-evaluation quiz and a database on occupational profiles and related educational paths. It also offers advice on entrepreneurship, and a newsletter containing updates on labour market issues.

Given the strong regional economic disparities and the fact that education and training are regional responsibilities, every region and autonomous province is entitled to adopt its own skills assessments. As a result, almost all of them have their own systems for regional or sub-regional skills assessments. In general, these differ substantially according to their principal objectives and the methods used because they are designed to respond to local strategies and political mandates. In some areas it is possible to find parallel skills assessment activities at different geographical levels, though this is becoming less common. Skills assessments at the local level are often based on questionnaire surveys of employers and individuals, and secondary analysis of administrative data.

Moreover, the legislative Decree No 150/2015 provided for the creation of a single information system on active labour market policies: the Unified Information System (Sistema Informativo Unitario or SIU). The system was set up in 2015 and coordinated by ANPAL. The main branch of the system is the Unified Information System for VET (SIU Formazione), a single source of information for monitoring VET funding schemes and programmes carried out by the Regions and autonomous provinces. According to the constitutional provisions, the latter are responsible for the implementation of public resources (coming from the national government and from the European Social Fund) aimed at funding VET learning pathways in compulsory education (IVET) and continuing vocational training programmes (CVET) managed by inter-professional funds. This information system on VET has been designed and built taking into consideration the need for interoperability with other databases managed by public authorities, to be in a constant dialogue with the other individual parts of the network, and to allow the evaluation of public funds in VET. The SIU Formazione has also the purpose of gathering information in ‘worker files’, digital folders that collect data on issues concerning the assessment of competences acquired in formal, non-formal and informal learning. The system is based on shared standards and a common data model that are applied across regions. To be operable, this data model provides a link among different structured tables (by means of common index and codes), with different but complementary information about the learners/beneficiary (such as the characteristics of the learner and the target group to whom s/he belongs, the nature of the intervention, the main information about the learning provider etc.). Some regions have not yet adopted the protocols for the provision of statistical data on training. 

Skills forecasts

The surveys mentioned under skills assessment also have a forecasting element. In particular, the AlmaLaurea survey on university-to-market transition has both a short- and medium-term time horizon built into it. It provides information on changes universities need to implement to train future graduates with the skills demanded by the labour market.

However, there are also two forecasting exercises which provide medium-term projections:

  • The Excelsior project medium-term forecasts are developed by an econometric model similar to that used by CEDEFOP for its forecasting exercises. The model forecasts occupation demand for 30 sectors, including the estimations for both the expansion and replacement demand component. Sectoral forecasts are subsequently provided for occupations at ISCO 3 digits level. Since 2015, forecasts are produced annually with a time horizon of five years.
  • Within the Information System on Occupations, INAPP conducts medium-term forecasts by using an econometric model of the demand for labour. Also in this case, projections are provided for different occupations, including the estimations for both expansion and replacement demand. The time horizon is five years, and the exercise used to be conducted every two to three years, but it has not been updated since 2017.

Skills foresight

No skills foresights have been identified in Italy.

Other skills anticipation practices

Other skills anticipation practices take place, namely:

  • Employer association surveys focusing on in-demand skills for planning and fine-tuning the content of continuous vocational training; and
  • Surveys conducted by training institutions/providers, similar to the surveys mentioned in the above point, for developing and aligning the supply of training with demand.

Dissemination and use

Use of skills anticipation in policy

The use of skills anticipation evidence in policy design and development in Italy is generally considered quite limited, being more ad-hoc than systematic. This could be attributed to the fact that the outputs of skills anticipation are considered to be of poor quality by policymakers, and/or because of the partial coverage provided by various outputs. For example, the use of skills anticipation information does not seem to inform employment or migration policy in a systematic way.

Another central function of such data is to inform and support people in deciding which educational or training path to take and providing them with information about the skills needed to find a job or change job. Career guidance, employment, placement and counselling services are therefore the most important target groups for skills anticipation information, but they operate at a service level and not at the policy level. Career guidance based on solid and up-to-date skills anticipation evidence tends to be provided only in a very limited and scattered way. Training institutions – mainly upper-secondary schools, initial VET (IVET) providers, universities and other non-academic tertiary-level training institutions – could potentially use estimates of future skills demand for adapting curricula and training content to the needs of the labour market. Nonetheless, education and training providers do not have the obligation to adjust their offer to labour market needs, and there is no mechanism to ensure they do. Due to the diversity of regional/local labour markets, it is challenging to design a national strategy that captures all characteristics across the Italian territory regarding education and training provision to match labour market needs. As a result, training providers are considered to design their provision based on local factors (e.g., regional policy frameworks and local labour markets).

Target groups’ uses of skills anticipation outputs

The INAPP Information System on Occupations web portal is aimed at a wide range of target groups: policymakers at national and local levels, educational institutions and training providers, social partners, research institutions, students choosing courses at university or in VET, young graduates, job-seekers and, in general, workers looking for a career change. The web portal was launched in 2012 and within two years registered 1,000 visits a day.[v]

Much effort has been made to disseminate labour market intelligence to employers and training institutions. Traditionally, training institutions have tended not to use skills forecasts when designing their courses, while employers have tended not to identify their future skills needs. It has been noted that training providers have been resistant to significantly modifying their training offer – given the costs of doing so – in response to changing labour market demands. It continues to be a challenge to influence employers and training providers.

As a result of the work being undertaken by INAPP, Excelsior and AlmaLaurea, upper-second level graduates have access to a wide range of data on higher education opportunities.[vi] There is, however, no clear evidence on the extent to which the data are used by students.

 

Please cite this document as: Cedefop. (2023). Skills anticipation in Italy. Skills intelligence: data insights. URL [accessed DATE]

Bibliography

Endnotes

[ii] INAPP is the former ISFOL (Istituto per lo Sviluppo della Formazione Professionale dei Lavoratori).

[iv] Unioncamere. (2016b).

[v] European Commission. (2014).

[vi] Mignoli. (2012).