21 MAR 2023
Data insights

Skills anticipation in Ireland (2022 Update)

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Summary

Overview of the Irish approach

Skills anticipation in Ireland is a well-coordinated process, providing information on skills shortages and future requirements in the labour market. The aim is to ensure that education and training provision is relevant to current and future labour market demands and skills needs.

Skills anticipation activities comprise skills forecasts, assessments and foresight activities. The occupational forecasts remain the most widely used and influential data for policy despite only providing an indication of future occupational trends.

The majority of Ireland’s labour market intelligence and skills data are produced by the Skills and Labour Market Research Unit (SLMRU), which is based in SOLAS, the Further Education and Training Authority (An tSeirbhís Oideachais Leanúnaigh agus Scileanna). There have been substantial investments in further refining, coordinating and developing skills anticipation processes and activities. Ireland’s skills anticipation activities provide a good example of how stakeholders have a key role to play in the process, particularly through the Expert Group on Future Skills Needs (EGFSN).

Information on skills anticipation is widely disseminated reaching intended target groups; while its use by the 16 education and training boards([i]) for monitoring and planning provision is recognised as a national priority. It is governed by the Department of Education and Skills with support from the Department of Jobs, Enterprise and Innovation, as well as with a wider group of stakeholders.

Description

Skills anticipation activities comprise skills forecasts, assessments and foresight activities. In 1991, the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) developed occupational forecasting models in conjunction with the Training and Employment Authority (Foras Áiseanna Saothair, FÁS), and the organisations jointly produced Manpower Forecasting Studies between 1991 and 2007. The majority of Ireland’s labour market intelligence and skills data are produced by the Skills and Labour Market Research Unit (SLMRU) based in SOLAS. The SLMRU reports on a range of labour market indicators, such as vacancy statistics and occupational forecasts (taken over from the ESRI in 2008). It runs an employer’s survey and produces sectoral studies.

Aims

The aim of skills anticipation activities is to ensure that education and training provision is relevant to current and future labour market demands and skills needs.

Legal framework

A number of changes and restructuring, pertinent to skills anticipation, have occurred in Ireland since 2011 within the context of the economic crisis and a change in political administration.

In November 2011, the Irish government released the Public Sector Reform Plan which placed the EGFSN within the remit of the Department of Education and Skills (An Roinn Oideachais agus Scileanna, DES).<[ii] The following year the government published a major labour activation strategy, Pathways to Work[iii] which set out a number of key actions and targets to address persistent joblessness. As a result, the Labour Market Council was set up, which supported the establishment of SOLAS and Education and Training Boards (ETBs). SOLAS was created in 2013 under the Further Education and Training Act as an Agency of the DES, replacing FÁS to build a further education and training (FET) ‘sector that is responsive to the needs of learners and the requirements of a changed and changing economy.’[iv]

In 2016, the DES and the Department for Skills, Research and Innovation jointly released Ireland’s National Skills Strategy 2025, which builds upon the 2007 strategy Towards Tomorrow’s Skills and aims to ‘support an increase in the supply of skills to the labour market,’ actively including educators and employers in the development of skills.[v]

Governance

Ireland’s skills anticipation processes are governed by the DES with the support of the Department of Enterprise, Trade & Employment (An Roinn Post, Fiontar agus Nuálaíochta, DJEI) and a variety of stakeholders. It works closely with a wide range of stakeholders including learners, employers, ETBs, government departments, state bodies, Quality and Qualifications Ireland (Dearbhú Cáilíochta agus Cáilíochataí Êireann, QQI), the Higher Education Authority (An túdarás um ard-oideachas, HEA) (which oversees tertiary-level education in Ireland), institutes of technology and representative organisations.

The role of stakeholders

Skills anticipation activities are well coordinated, with data collated from a number of official data providers and intelligence disseminated to intended target groups and policymakers. Data are collected by government departments and agencies and collated in the National Skills Database, which is publicly available and widely disseminated.

In 1991 the independent ESRI worked with FÁS to produce an occupational forecasting model and a series of Manpower Forecasting Studies. The responsibility for the occupational forecasting model has since been absorbed within FÁS and run by the SLMRU since 2008.[vi] The SLMRU consults with key agencies and employer bodies, such as Ibec and the ESRI, as a final integrity check on the occupational employment forecasts.

The EGFSN was established under the former Department of Enterprise, Trade and Employment in 1997 and now sits under the DJEI and the DES,[vii] and informs the government on skills needs. The EGFSN was created to ensure that ‘labour market needs for skilled workers are anticipated and provided for.’[viii] The EGFSN operates under a social partnership model and comprises a range of experts and stakeholders, namely trade unions, businesses, employees, education, government and state agencies, voluntary organisations and career guidance providers. It advises the government on current and future skills needs of the economy and on other labour market issues that impact on Ireland’s enterprise and employment growth. Its role is to ensure that labour market needs for skilled workers are anticipated and met.[ix] This advice is achieved through a combination of:[x]

  • Skills foresight and benchmarking;
  • Strategic advice on building skills through education and training;
  • Data collection and analysis on demand and supply of skilled labour;
  • Influencing and monitoring of implementation.

The EGFSN is considered an effective group as it is representative of a range of stakeholders, and because it uses up-to-date labour market intelligence and occupational forecasting data. The EGFSN is a trans-ministerial committee, which includes stakeholders from social, further education and training and government sectors. It reports to both the Minister of Education and Skills and the Minister of Enterprise, Innovation and Jobs.

Management of the National Apprenticeship System, the European Adjustment Globalisation Fund (EGF), eCollege, Safe Pass and the Construction Skills Certification Scheme fall to SOLAS. SOLAS was responsible for the MOMENTUM programme[xi], as well, which is not active anymore.  

The CSO, a statutory body, provides official statistics, which are used for skills anticipation research by the SLMRU and EGFSN (e.g. the Labour Force Survey). However, the CSO does not conduct research on skills anticipation.

Regional representatives also play a role in skills anticipation processes. In 2016, the Department of Education and Skills established a network of nine regional skills fora[xii].  Each Regional Skills Forum is made up of a Steering Group, comprising representatives of education and training (FET, including VET, and third level), business representatives and a manager who leads the activities of each forum. Each Forum is intended to form a single point of contact for employers who wish to avail of a range of services and supports available within the education and training system.  Regional Skills Fora managers work with individual employers, especially SMEs, to identify their skills needs and explore how these needs can be addressed through the education and training system, if appropriate. Where appropriate, the Regional Skills Fora can serve as a platform for industry to input into curriculum design and course delivery.

Target groups

Information and data from skills anticipation activities are widely disseminated to government departments, universities and ETBs. Wide-ranging and comprehensive information is also disseminated through high-profile events and web-based skills portals to reach target groups.

Summary information by occupation from the National Skills Database was published on the Department of Social Protection’s (An Roinn Coimirce Sóisialai) Career Directions website. This has since been replaced by SOLAS, which targets public employment service (PES) and career guidance officers. SOLAS summarises information from the Labour Market Bulletin and the SLMRU occupational forecasts. The objective is to help the PES in advising jobseekers, but there is a concern that PES and career guidance officers have limited understanding of the labour market and do not keep up to date with relevant publications. Labour market information (LMI) is publicly available on the SOLAS LMI website.

The EGFSN’s outputs are targeted at students, jobseekers and career guidance officers through websites, such as the Careers Portal, newsletters and the Institute of Guidance Counsellors (Institúid na gComhairleoirí Treorach, IGC). The websites are publicly available and can therefore be used by not only the target groups but also the PES and employers. The Careers Portal was created in response to a recommendation by the EGFSN for a single portal with labour market information and career guidance. It is supported by public and private organisations.

Enterprise Ireland runs a programme called ‘Spotlight on Skills’ (launched in December 2017), which also aims to train companies in identifying the skills needs of their companies over the short-medium term. Two persons are selected from each company to attend a workshop which aims to assist companies to identify and plan solutions to their skills requirements, within the context of their own business strategies.  Following the workshop, interested companies may also avail of targeted engagement with their local Regional Skills Forum manager to address any education/training related skills needs.

These publications and outputs are intended for use by a range of stakeholders.

Funding and resources

SOLAS, the EGFSN and the CSO are funded by the government.

Methods and tools

Skills assessment

There are a number of skills assessments undertaken, including:

  • Monitoring Ireland’s Skills Supply: Trends in Education and Training Outputs,[xiii]which provides a comprehensive overview of the inflows into and outflows from Ireland’s education and training system according to qualification level and field of learning.
  • The National Skills Bulletin[xiv] presents analysis of the information gathered and maintained in the National Skills Database, which allows for an overview of the Irish labour market at occupational level. The Bulletin aims to assist policy formulation in the areas of employment, education/training and immigration.
  • The Regional Labour Markets Bulletin[xv] provides an analysis of the key labour market indicators for each of Ireland’s eight administrative regions: Border, Dublin, Mid-East, Midland, Mid-West, South-East, South-West and West.
  • The Vacancy Overview Report[xvi] provides an overview and analysis of the demand for labour as measured by trends in newly advertised job vacancies through both public and private sources.

Following the 2015 agreement on a data-sharing protocol between the Department of Social Protection and SOLAS, the latter has been working in the reporting period to establish a data infrastructure to support VET provision and policy. The strategy also includes undertaking skills needs research. Part of the work carried out to fulfil this function included the PLSS programme, a joint project between SOLAS and Education and Training Boards Ireland (ETBI), the representative association of the 16 education and training boards in Ireland. PLSS provides a complete picture of total enrolments, completers (along with certification, if any) and, eventually, outcomes (employment, further studies) of learners undertaking almost all types of government-funded FET. 

Through its Data Analytics Unit in collaboration with Skills and Labour Market Research Unit, SOLAS has been taking steps to continue work initially completed on a pilot basis in 2017 within the Central Statistics Office (Ireland’s National Statistics Institute).  The aim of the project is to link education and training data with other administrative datasets in Ireland (e.g. unemployment benefit/allowance claims, other education/training enrolments, employment data) to establish the learner outcomes associated with course participation in selected areas of the FET sector. SOLAS analysed the data in 2018 but data had not been made publicly available.

SMEs are supported by initiatives, such as the Skills for growth initiative, launched in December 2017 by Enterprise Ireland and the Department of Education and Skills to all regions. Adding partners in 2018, such as employer engagement officers working for other government agencies (including the Department of Employment and Social Protection and Údarás na Gaeltachta, the regional authority responsible for the economic, social and cultural development of Ireland’s Irish-speaking regions) ensured that a more holistic and coherent picture could be gained at government level regarding skills needs. SME representatives are guided through that initiative to think strategically about their current and future skills needs; informs them on tools that facilitate identification of skills needs, skills shortages and reasons for the skills needs arising. The identified skill needs are used by the Regional Skills Fora to link companies with the education and training providers best suited to responding to their skills needs. The Skills and Labour Market Research Unit in SOLAS collects all relevant data regarding the identification of skills shortages across Ireland.

Skills forecasts

Quantitative model-based forecasts are undertaken in Ireland, projecting labour market prospects for jobseekers to find a job and for employers to identify potential recruitment problems. These forecasts are undertaken by the SLMRU. The data form part of the National Skills Database, which was extended in 2010 to include the occupational employment forecasting model. The Standard Occupational Classifications (SOC) 1990 and International Standard Classification of Education (ISCED) coding systems are used as proxy measures of skills in the forecasts. The occupational forecasts are built upon the macroeconomic and demographic models of the ESRI, which was the primary provider of occupational forecasts up to 2009. The SLMRU generates the forecast series by applying the ESRI sectoral growth rates to the most recent estimates of occupational employment provided by the CSO Labour Force Survey. Forecasts are presented over the medium term for 15 sectors of the Irish economy, thereby extending the forecasts produced for 11 sectors by the ESRI. Historical occupational distribution data for 133 occupations within 15 sectors are derived using the Quarterly National Household Survey (QNHS). These projections are used to generate expansion in demand for skills using trends in educational shares. The occupational forecast data and other occupational information were also available online. The SLMRU reports that the model fails to take into consideration education and training providers’ ability to adjust their supply in response to changing labour demands and that technology has a major impact on the demand for labour.

Skills foresight

The EGFSN and SOLAS undertake a range of foresight exercises at a sectoral level, including on the green and digital economies.[xvii]

The PES uses Interviews and surveys with stakeholders, experts’ workshops / meetings / panels and SWOT analysis[xviii].

Other skills anticipation practices

Other skills anticipation practices have been identified:

  • Ibec (the Irish Business and Employer’s Confederation) produces forecasts and salary surveys relevant to business. A Quarterly Economic Outlook is produced which provides an up-to-date picture of the Irish labour market.[xix] It includes data and forecasts on economic and employment indicators.
  • A bi-annual recruitment survey by the SLMRU is considered a reliable indicator of skills shortages, as agencies belonging to the Employment and Recruitment Federation (ERF) are surveyed. They report on the level of difficulty in sourcing individuals with the appropriate skills.

Data on skills and other labour market indicators inform and/or extend skills anticipation outputs and are collated by the SLMRU and included in the National Skills Database. Key data include:

  • Employment data (provided by the CSO QNHS).
  • Education and training provision, participation and output provided by the HEA, the DES, QQI, SOLAS and some private education and training providers.
  • First destination of third-level students on graduation, provided by the HEA.
  • Employment permit data provided by the DJEI.
  • Job vacancies, provided by the Department of Social Protection, The Irish Times, IrishJobs.ie and the Recruitment Agency Survey conducted by the SLMRU.
  • Job announcements and redundancy announcements.
  • Jobseeker data provided by the Department of Social Protection.
  • Labour market transitions (research provided by the SLMRU based on the QNHS).

The Irish PES reportedly analyses future skill needs with an up to five years’ time horizon. Supply of skills are analysed annually and demand for skills on a quarterly basis. For its forward-looking methods, the PES takes into consideration factors such as Technological change (including digitalisation/automation, etc.), Environmental issues (including climate change, economy greening, etc.), Demographic changes (including population ageing, generational changes, etc.), Globalisation issues (including migration, global supply chains, etc.), Changes in the world of work (including emergence of new forms of work, online/distance working and learning, etc.)[xx].

Dissemination and use

Use of skills anticipation in policy

Data from skills anticipation activities in Ireland, particularly the forecast data, have a significant impact on public policy due to the dissemination strategy of the SLMRU. The data from the forecasts inform policy and investment decisions, inter alia, in the provision of vocational education and training.

In Ireland, skills needs data are being used, among other things, to help in the transition to a greener and digital economy. For instance, recent studies have focused on the skills requirements of businesses working in the green economy.[xxi] These reports include recommendations aimed at enhancing current training provision.

Skills data are being used to inform further education and training programmes such as apprenticeships.  In 2017, the Skills for Growth project was established by the Department of Education and Skills, with input from Enterprise Ireland (Government agency to support indigenous, exporting companies in Ireland), the regional skills fora managers and the Skills and Labour Market Research Unit in SOLAS. The Skills for Growth project is a package of supports for employers to help them understand and plan for their skill needs.

The Irish PES uses an array of skills assessment and anticipation tools, such as descriptive statistics, quantitative forecast results, skills and jobs surveys, graduate tracer studies, qualitative research (including qualitative forecasting), foresight and big data analysis (use of web scraping/web crawling to access and gather data). Skills intelligence is used to shape upskilling and reskilling programmes addressing future skills requirements, to accelerate cooperation with private sector and civil society and support and strengthen career guidance as an inherent element of the PES service process[xxii].

Skills intelligence is used to inform relevant decisions, for example the Employment Permit System (operated by the Department of Business) must refer to the skills-shortage indicators outlined in the National Skills Bulletin, produced annually by SOLAS[xxiii].

Target groups’ uses of skills anticipation outputs

Information and data from skills anticipation activities are widely disseminated to government departments, universities and ETBs. Data from the National Skills Database are made available through four publicly available reports produced each year: the National Skills Bulletin,[xxiv] Monitoring Ireland’s Skills Supply: Trends in Education/Training Outputs, the Regional Labour Markets Bulletin and the Vacancy Overview Report.[xxv] The National Skills Bulletin provides an overview of the Irish labour market focusing on changes in sectoral and occupational employment patterns, unemployment, labour market transitions, hard-to-fill vacancies and work permits issued to non-nationals. Wide-ranging and comprehensive information is also disseminated through high-profile events and web-based skills portals to reach target groups. Furthermore, Regional Skills Fora were established to liaise with employers and help inform the provision of education and training towards meeting objectives set in the National Skills Strategy 2025.

Outputs from skills anticipation activities are disseminated and used by a wide range of stakeholders including learners, employers, ETBs, government departments, state bodies, QQI, the HEA, institutes of technology and representative organisations. The EGFSN, with representatives from trade unions, businesses, employees, education, government, voluntary organisations, career guidance providers and state agencies, has an important role in advising the DES and the DJEI about the current and future labour market.

The PES supports its employees and externals (guidance / information for external stakeholders, such as VET providers, other educational institutions) with skills intelligence offered in the forms of executive summaries, general reports presenting key findings, detailed analyses comprising all research questions/ problems. PES employees/counsellors are also offered specific analyses and evaluations focused on separate problems/target groups of clients; internal conferences/seminars and training/peer-learning sessions for staff (including career guidance counsellors) are held[xxvi].

Please cite this document as: Cedefop.(2022). Skills anticipation in Ireland. Skills intelligence: data insights. URL [accessed DATE]

Bibliography

 

Endnotes

[i]In Ireland there is no distinguish between initial and continuing VET.

[ii]For the Public Sector Reform Plan see Department of Public Expenditure and Reform (2011).

[iii]This was followed up by Pathways to Work 2015.

[iv]See SOLAS (n.d. b.) for more information about SOLAS’s remit.

[v]DES. (2016).

[vi]European Commission. (2016).

[vii]For more information see EGFSN.

[viii]For the mandate of the EGFSN, see EGFSN (2007a).

[ix]For recent publications see EGFSN (2016b).

[x]See EGFSN (n.d.a)

[xi]https://www.cedefop.europa.eu/en/tools/matching-skills/all-instruments/momentum

[xii]There are nine Regional Fora: North-West, North-East, West, Midlands, Mid-East, Dublin, Mid-West, South-East and South-West. For more information see the Regional Skills homepage

[xiii]See McNaboe and Condon (2015).

[xiv]EGFSN

[xv]For Regional Labour Market Bulletins see EGFSN (2016b).

[xvi]For a recent example see McNaboe et al. (2016).

[xvii]See for example EGFSN (2010).

[xviii]European Commission. (2022).

[xix]For a recent example see Ibec (2016).

[xx]European Commission. (2022).

[xxi]See for example Forfás (2009) and DJEI (2013).

[xxii]European Commission. (2022).

[xxiii]Ibid.

[xxiv]For a recent example see Behan et al. (2016).

[xxv]For a recent example see McNaboe and Condon (2015).

[xxvi]European Commission. (2022).

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