21 MAR 2023
Data insights

Skills anticipation in Croatia (2022 Update)

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Summary

Overview of the Croatian approach

Skills anticipation is in development in Croatia. Overall, there is a consensus between the various authorities on the direction of policy, but there is currently no systematic and coordinated skills anticipation process. The impact of various anticipation exercises has been limited; for example, there has been a lack of influence of the activities on students and educational institutions. In this respect there is a recognised need to improve overall coordination of the various organisations engaged in the process of skills anticipation. It should be noted in this regard that the analyses of current and projected skill needs are still under-developed, meaning that neither the education system nor future students are adequately informed.

Skills anticipation exercises largely fall under the remit of the public employment service (Hrvatski zavod za zaposljavanje, HZZ, hereafter PES). The PES has developed a process for assessing which occupations are and will be in surplus and which in shortage. This information mainly affects the recommendations of the PES regarding education and training enrolment quotas in secondary and tertiary education. The assessment of surplus and shortage occupations also aims to guide education and training providers on the future provision of secondary and tertiary education programmes and formal adult education programmes. The National Council for the Development of Human Potential (Nacionalnog vijeća za razvoj ljudskih potencijala) is also assessing what is needed to ensure that skills supply meets demand. However, the Council’s recommendations (based on skills anticipation activities) are not binding for education and training providers.

The introduction of the Croatian Qualifications Framework (Hrvatski kvalifikacijski okvir, HKO) has provided a framework for analysis of the supply of, and demand for, skills. In 2019, with the implementation of the Croatian Qualifications Framework, a range of activities anticipating training needs are being undertaken, including skills assessments, quantitative skills forecasts, qualitative studies and employer/employee surveys. Whilst these skills anticipation activities are in early development, the aim is to develop occupational standards, produce 15 new sector profiles and 200 new occupational standards for vocational occupations and adult education.

Description

Overall responsibility for skills anticipation rests with the Ministry of Labour and Pension System (Ministarstvo rada i mirovinskog sustava, MRMS), which has jurisdiction over the public employment service (PES). In practice, the PES is the principal agency involved in skills anticipation. It undertakes assessments of current and future skill needs with a view to informing the education system (secondary and tertiary level) about future provision of programmes. In addition to the activities of the PES, sectoral assessments are also undertaken and there has been an initial foray into formal skills forecasting.

The Croatian Qualifications Framework HKO (Hrvatski Kvalifikacijski Okvir), introduced in 2013, provides a structure for skills anticipation activity. Important in the development of the HKO is the role of sector councils that have a responsibility for advising on changes in qualifications deriving from changes observed in occupational standards or other developments at the sectoral level. These councils comprise various stakeholders including the social partners and sectoral experts. The National Council for the Development of Human Potential also has an important role in relation to the HKO in making recommendations about how the skills supply system should respond to changing patterns of skills demand. The HKO falls under the domain of the Ministry of Science and Education (Ministarstvo znanosti i obrazovanja, MZOS).

The main aim of skills anticipation is to inform policymakers and education and training providers. It is being further developed to also include careers guidance professionals and, increasingly, inform the decisions of jobseekers and prospective students.

Aims

The primary aim of skills anticipation in Croatia is to improve the skills intelligence available about the demand for, and supply of, skills. In turn, this skills intelligence aims to ensure that those responsible for the provision of education and training are better informed. There is scope for skills anticipation activity to increase the range of its target user groups, but for the moment it is very much orientated towards influencing the decisions of those responsible for the supply of education and skills.

As noted above, the HKO is considered a critically important first step in providing a structure for conducting skills anticipation exercises.

Legal framework

There are three key regulations relating to the development of skills anticipation activity in Croatia.

The Regulation on Monitoring, Analysis and Forecasting of the Labour Market Needs for Particular Occupations (Official Gazette No. 93/2010) was introduced in the wake of the financial crisis in order to bring about a better match between the supply of, and demand for, skills. It requires the PES to analyse and forecast current and future labour market skill needs on an annual basis and make recommendations for educational enrolment policy. Once a year, the PES sends its recommendations to educational institutions, local and regional administrations, sector councils and the Ministry of Science and Education (MZOS).

The Vocational Education and Training Act (Official Gazette No. 30/2009) established the first sector councils, which comprised representatives of social partners and education and training providers, plus experts in the skills needs of different sectors. In addition, 25 sector councils were introduced by the 2013 Croatian Qualifications Framework Act[i]. The Amendments to the VET Act adopted in March 2018 provided a framework for the VET curricula to be further developed including the introduction of the National Curriculum for VET, sectoral curricula and VET school curricula. It also removed multipartite sector skills councils introduced in 2013. A network of regional competence centres was also established.

In addition, there are two strategy documents that have been important in shaping the developing skills anticipation activity:

  • The Strategy on Development of the Vocational Education System in the Republic of Croatia 2008–2013 established, among other things, a methodology for labour market research on skills demand and supply and made recommendations regarding the collection and analysis of labour market data. The new strategy for vocational education and training (VET) which covers the period 2016–2020 was adopted in late 2016.[ii]
  • The National Strategy for Lifelong Professional Guidance and Career Development in the Republic of Croatia 2014–2020 emphasises availability of high-quality information on career opportunities and provision of professional guidance for individuals and/or groups of jobseekers.

Governance

The Ministry of Labour and Pension System (Ministarstvo rada i mirovinskog sustava, MRMS) has overall responsibility for skills anticipation on the government side. Within the MRMS, the PES has operational responsibility for skills anticipation through its regional and local offices. The PES currently analyses future skill needs[iii].

The development of the HKO rests with the National Council for Development of Human Potential, which monitors and validates the impact of the HKO. It makes recommendations based on the work of sector councils as to how to better connect the educational offer to labour market needs. Ultimate responsibility for the HKO rests with the MZOS.

The role of stakeholders

The PES is the main provider of skills anticipation information plus guidance and counselling to jobseekers. Social partners are represented on the managing board of the PES. Aside from the MRMS, PES and MZOS, the other key authorities that will have a role in skills anticipation as the process develops are:

  • The Agency for Vocational Education and Training and Adult Education (Agencija za strukovno obrazovanje i obrazovanje odraslih), which has responsibility for developing qualifications based on competences and learning outcomes, and the continuous alignment of education with labour market needs.
  • The Agency for Science and Higher Education (Agencija za zanost I visoko abrazovanje), which has a role in implementing the HKO in higher education.
  • The sector councils (Sektorska vijeća), which advise the HKO on changes to qualifications based on changes observed in occupational standards or other developments at the sectoral level.

Employers’ associations, trade unions, education and training providers, and experts will be represented in the skills anticipation process by their participation in the sector councils.

Social partners are also represented on the sector councils and in the National Council for the Development of Human Potential, along with training providers and assorted experts.

Target groups

The main users of the outputs of the skills anticipation process are policymakers (across several ministries and agencies) and educational institutions (VET and higher education). The PES, at both national and local level, is also a target group for the use of labour market intelligence. Ultimately the aim is to expand the target groups to include students and jobseekers via labour market intermediaries.

Funding and resources

Funding for skills anticipation is provided by the MRMS to the PES. Despite regulation obliging the PES to further develop skills anticipation activity (Official Gazette No. 93/2010), its budget was not increased to accommodate this new responsibility.

Methods and tools

Skills assessment

As noted above, regulation requires the PES to engage in skills anticipation. To this end the PES has developed a methodology for assessing the current demand for and supply of skills, together with a view about how these are likely to develop in the future. Since 2011, the PES has run skills assessment exercises, based chiefly on two data sources:

  • The register of unemployed people and
  • A survey of employers.

Skills assessment is undertaken by analysing the speed with which people of different levels and fields of study make the transition from unemployment to employment. This provides an initial ranking of courses that are associated with a more or less successful transition into employment. The ranking is further modified by PES to make sure that the results correspond with their day-to-day experience. A view is also taken on future developments (based on a linear extrapolation of trends). Results from the employers’ survey conducted by the PES are then used to provide a demand-side perspective, for example by integrating the frequency with which employers report a shortage of workers in a particular occupation into the ranking process. Because the rankings are conducted at regional and local levels, analysts from regional PES offices also consider regional and local development plans and their projected workforce implications. The final rankings feed into recommendations[iv] for enrolment policy for various VET and higher education courses. The analyses and recommendations are developed annually.

Shortcomings can be identified in the aforementioned methodology. For example, the unemployment register does not cover all graduates because registration is non-compulsory. Additionally, the methodology does not take into account all causes of differential levels of employability – for example, the differences in filling vacancies between rural and urban areas tend to be unrelated to enrolment levels, especially in higher education.

In January 2019, the Croatian Qualifications Framework was implemented and the Development of Instruments for Linking Education to the Labour Market was initiated. A range of activities anticipating training needs are being undertaken as part of the project, including skills assessments, quantitative skills forecasts, qualitative studies and employer/employee surveys. The project, co-funded by the European Social Fund, is overseen by the Ministry of Labour and Pension System. It aims to update the methodological framework and tools for the development of occupational standards and produce 15 new sector profiles and 200 new occupational standards for vocational occupations and adult education. The development of new occupational standards is expected to foster the development of qualifications aligned to labour market needs. The project is due to report in 2022.

Skills forecasts

In 2010, the Government adopted the Regulation on monitoring, analysis and forecasting of labour market needs for particular occupations. Based on this Regulation, the Croatian Employment Service (CES) became responsible for annual analysis and forecasting of labour market needs and development of recommendations for enrolment policy. The main users of these forecasts were policy makers, educational providers and the Croatian Employment Service. The Ministry of Science and Education used CES recommendations to decide on enrolment quotas for secondary education programmes, as well as for determining the numbers of scholarships in particular educational programmes.

Since its establishment in 2005 and until 2012, the Agency for Vocational Education and Training and Adult Education (ASOO) developed sector profiles for all 13 VET sectors[v] developed the first methodologies of skills forecast, introduced concepts of occupational/qualification standards, as well as established and run 13 VET sectoral committees. In April 2016, the Institute of Economics published an experimental forecast on future labour market developments and skills needs for the period 2015–2020 with quantitative forecasts for 25 sectors.

In 2016, the Ministry of Education ordered the study Projections on the future labour market trends from the Institute of Economics Zagreb (EIZ). The forecast included explores developments up to 2020. The study introduced a new methodology for forecasting future labour market trends. The main results include annual employment forecasts, segregated by 83 economic activities according to the national classification of economic activities (NKD 2007). In addition, the study offers an analysis of the impact on employment at occupation level of the projected trends for each economic activity and by sector of the Croatian qualifications framework (Hrvatski kvalifikacijski okvir, HKO). The aim of the study was to produce forecasts on the future labour market trends that would inform the activities of HKO sector councils and other stakeholders in the implementation of HKO. It primarily supports the development of new occupational standards that are to be proposed for inclusion in the HKO registry.

In early 2019, the Ministry of Labour launched a major ESF-funded project, “Implementation of the Croatian qualifications framework and the development of instruments for linking education to the labour market”. It comprises several initiatives that contribute to the development of a framework for assessing and forecasting labour market needs, including:

  • update of the methodology for the development of sector profiles
  • development of 15 new sector profiles
  • update of 10 sector profiles from 2015-2016
  • further upgrade of HKO portal (including skills matching features)
  • implementation of ESCO in the national classification of occupations (NKZ).

While the aim is to provide an outlook on the demand for skills/qualifications (using the HKO), at the moment the only skills forecast available is that which is produced as part of Cedefop’s pan-European skill projections.

Skills foresight

There is currently no skills foresight activity in Croatia.

Other skills anticipation practices

The aforementioned PES survey of employers enquires about occupational skill requirements. According to the PES, the survey results are used in targeting PES active labour market policy programmes and are one of the inputs into the PES yearly enrolment policy recommendations. The purpose of the survey is to identify which adjustments can be made in order to better match skills supply to demand. The survey is conducted in the first quarter of every year and encompasses a relatively high number of employers (8,969 employers were interviewed in 2015, accounting for 530,000 employees or 38 per cent of those currently employed). It is the largest and most representative survey of employers in Croatia. It is limited to employers with five or more employees (80 per cent of respondents are small employers, 16 per cent medium-sized ones and 14 per cent large ones). The questionnaire is sent to employers by mail, but it is also possible to respond online through the PES web page. Although the results of the survey are available online, they are used almost exclusively by policymakers.

The National Centre for External Evaluation of Education collected information on all IVET graduates. Graduate tracking is being used to approve new programmes, student enrolments and staff recruitment. In 2018, the Agency for VET and Adult Education (AVETAE), started a pilot tracking programme in three Croatian VET schools in different geographical locations and focusing on different sectoral specialisations. The target group was the student cohort that graduated in the school year 2016/2017.

Dissemination and use

Use of skills anticipation in policy

It can be argued that there is no structured kills anticipation and matching system in Croatia; therefore, accurately assessing the extent and the way in which the outputs from skills anticipation activities affect policy can be challenging.

The results of skills anticipation exercises are publicised, for example in newspapers; therefore, there is presumably a degree of awareness of the outcomes of skills anticipation.

The ministry of education developed the Croatian Qualifications Framework (CROQF) web portal (HKO portal) as the central portal with labour market and education indicators. The portal integrates data on employment, unemployment, enrolment in secondary and higher education programmes, key economic activities and corresponding employment rates, and distribution of different occupations in sectors in relation to economic activities. For example, the data on employment includes indicators such as the share of sector in total workforce, the number of occupations per sector and the distribution of workforce by age, sex and occupation. The portal offers insight into current labour market trends, rather than offering forecasts for the future. The portal links data on unemployment from the Croatian Employment Service, data on employment from the Croatian Pension Insurance Institute, enrolment in secondary and higher education programmes from the Ministry of Science and Education and the relevant statistical indicators from the Croatian Bureau of Statistics.

The introduction of the HKO is considered to improve the link between the education system and the labour market, as it will offer greater transparency (for example, on skills and qualifications required for occupations in excess demand). The Ministry of Education sets up and coordinates sector councils and develops guidelines and background analyses for the development and the implementation of the HKO. Sector councils evaluate proposals for including occupational and qualification standards in the HKO registry, and equally:

  • analyse existing and required competences by sector
  • give recommendations to the National Council for Development of Human Potential about admission policies, admission quota and financing of qualifications from public sources, by qualification and by county
  • give recommendations to the ministry of education about changes in qualifications standards based on changes identified in occupational standards
  • give recommendations to the Ministry of Labour for changes in the National Classification of Occupations (NKZ).

It is also worth pointing to key strategy documents that indicate how attempts are being made to coordinate the use of skills anticipation in policymaking. Both the Strategy on Development of the Vocational Education System in the Republic of Croatia 2016–2020 and the National Strategy for Lifelong Professional Guidance and Career Development in the Republic of Croatia 2014–2020 concentrate on conducting more research and providing more information on skills demand in the labour market. Additionally, regulation gives the PES a central role in identifying the over- and under-supply of skills.

Target groups’ uses of skills anticipation outputs

The main users of skill anticipation outputs are policymakers, and to a lesser extent educational institutions and PES employees. The PES uses these outputs to educate advisers and inform the Lifelong Career Guidance Centre (CISOK). The CISOK, developed as part of the CES, has regional and local offices and provides career guidance and educational advice to anyone who requires it. Also important in this context is the National Strategy for the Lifelong Professional Guidance and Career Development in the Republic of Croatia 2014–2020, which focuses on the need to improve the availability of high-quality information on career opportunities in the labour market. In particular it draws attention to the need to make information on careers available through a variety of media channels. The aim is to increase the availability of professional guidance to jobseekers.

Mid-term and long-term skills data and intelligence from skills anticipation activities are made available through the Croatian Qualifications Framework (CROQF) web portal, which was developed in 2018 by the Ministry of Labour and Pension System in an effort to better link different databases on labour market and education, managed by public institutions (Croatian Employment Service, Croatian Pension Insurance Institute, Ministry of Science and Education and Croatian Bureau of Statistics). The portal integrates data on employment, unemployment, enrolment in secondary and higher education programmes, while sectoral and occupational information are also available through the portal. It is used by a range of stakeholders for labour market monitoring and the development of sector profiles and occupational standards. The portal aims to support information needs of various stakeholders, such as public institutions, education providers, students enrolling in secondary or higher education programmes, unemployed job seekers, professionals changing careers, employers etc.

Please cite this document as: Cedefop.(2022). Skills anticipation in Croatia. Skills intelligence: data insights. URL [accessed XXX]

Bibliography

Endnotes

[i]Cedefop. (2020).

[ii]Ibid.

[iii]European Commission. (2022).

[iv]Recommendations correspond to occupations as classified in the PES registers that do not fully correspond to the titles of educational programmes.

[v]Available at https://www.asoo.hr/default.aspx?id=1254

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