Short-term anticipation of Skills and VET demand (STAS)

Summary

Looking ahead to 2025, our latest short-term projections (STAS) present timely data on employment in the EU by occupation (ISCO 1-digit and 2-digit) and country. Our 6-monthly bulletin summarizes the most recent key trends and dynamics in the EU labour market, reflecting shifting demands across occupations and within countries. This overview offers insights for policymakers, workers, and businesses navigating a changing economic and technological landscape.

For more detailed, granular and complete data, you can explore the STAS webtool.

Key trends by occupation

Key trends by country

Looking ahead to 2026, the EU labour market is projected to maintain employment growth, albeit at a slightly slower pace than in 2025, reflecting structural and external challenges. Member States with strong service-sector foundations – particularly in business services, information and communication technology, and non-market services (e.g., public administration, education, and healthcare) – are expected to remain resilient, with Ireland, Malta, and Spain likely to sustain momentum. In contrast, economies reliant on manufacturing, primary sectors, or routine jobs vulnerable to automation (e.g., basic manufacturing production, and administrative roles) may experience limited growth or stagnation, as automation and AI technologies accelerate. This evidence aligns with AMECO projections, which underscore the uneven impacts of digital and green transitions on EU labour markets. External factors – such as inflationary pressures, energy costs, and geopolitical uncertainties – further constrain growth potential, particularly in energy-intensive economies. The table below highlights the top three trending occupations in each member state based on 2026 projections.

Country	Employment growth (%)	Top 3 occupations (% growth)
Belgium	0.5
Bulgaria	0.3
Czechia	0.2
Denmark	0.0
Germany	0.2
Estonia	0.2
Ireland	1.2
Greece	0.9
Spain	1.6
France	0.5
Croatia	1.1
Italy	0.3
Cyprus	1.2
Latvia	-0.4
Lithuania	0.3
Luxembourg	1.7
Hungary	0.3
Malta	2.7
Netherlands	0.2
Austria	0.4
Poland	0.2
Portugal	0.9
Romania	0.7
Slovenia	0.7
Slovakia	-0.1
Finland	0.5
Sweden	0.5

Time Horizon and Methodology

The STAS produces projection on employment in the EU up to two years ahead of the last period of available data. The projections presented in the September 2025 bulletin nowcast data for 2025, relying on EU Labour Force Survey (LFS) quarterly data up to Q4/2024; LFS annual data up to 2024; and data from the EU Job Vacancy Statistics up to 2024. The STAS baseline was then aligned to the forecasted total employment growth published by the Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN) in the AMECO database, released in April 2025. The projections are updated with fresh data every six months, following the AMECO spring and autumn releases ensuring that the forecasts remain reflective of the latest employment trends.

The STAS methodology relies on a three-fold econometric modelling approach: a Vector Autoregression (VAR) and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) method linking sectoral vacancies and employment; a univariate Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) to model occupational employment; and a “Naïve” forecast based on past average of quarter-on-quarter growth. The STAS uses the EU LFS quarterly and annual data on employment by occupation, sector and Member State as well as vacancy data from the European Job Vacancy Statistics.