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Development of a Labour Market needs anticipation instrument

Instrument the anticipare a evolutiilor pietei muncii (Flexicovery)

Description

Timespan

2012-2017

Stage
No longer operational

The instrument has ben used for five years and has been the basis for methodological development of several other studies, projects, analyses and research initiatives of the National Labour Research Institute. After five years of operation, however, the instrument has been considered obsolete and therefore its use discontinued, although the experience gained remains invaluable and it has proven to have a strong multiplier effect.

Focus area
Matching skills for today’s job market
Matching skills for the future of work

Foundations

Policy area
Active labour market policies

The instrument was used generally for the impact assessment of labour market policies. Its results and methodological gains have been used in the elaboration of impact assessment studies for the Ministry of Labour, regarding the implementation of active employment policies under the Unemployment Insurance Act.

Policy goal

Identification of future skills shortages and needs/demands, labour market trends, which is useful for the design and assessment of active labour market policies. This instrument uses a more sophisticated methodology (dynamic general equilibrium) and implies a macro-economic forecasting tool to indicate all macro-economic aggregates in an autonomous process. It was recently designed by INCSMPS and Fondazione G. Brodolini Italy in an ESF-financed project. Two models of the project has been merged to enable the National Labour Research Institute to anticipate future skills needs, so as to enable decision-makers to use it for tailoring and targeting LM interventions.

Mismatch
Other

This instrument has been designed to monitor skills demands and supply as part of VET related claims of particular labour market stakeholders. Although skills mismatches are not truly at the core if it, it could also be used for that, and in fact it has served as the assessment of active employment measures relating to this side of labour market policies and initiatives.

Aim of policy instrument
Upskill and match skills of unemployed
Upskill employed adults
Match skills of young graduates
Facilitate job/career transitions
Legal basis
Other
Administrative level
National
Main responsible body

The National Research Institute for Labour and Social Protection of Romania - INCSMPS

Stakeholders
Research centres and universities

Fondazione Giacomo Brodolini -IT had a main role in designing and testing the instrument, as well as during the early phase of the implementation of the instrument. It has supplied the original mathematical model of the instrument and the set of forecasting equations incorporated into the model. It has also supplied the documentation of the instrument.

Funding

The instrument was originally developed with ESF financing under the SOP HRD 20007-13. After the termination of the project in 2012, the instrument has been financed by the INCSMSP from its own generated resources.

Intended beneficiaries

Mainly research centres and universities. The system has been designed for use by specialised users and researchers so as to enable them to provide forecasts, analyses, assessment and impact studies etc. Therefore, the instrument mainly supports research and policy development and decisions. The product has been intended to also enhance the capacity of the INCSMPS to provide forecasts, analyses and other products to labour market actors, including national policy making bodies, enterprises and social partners.

Processes

Use of labour market intelligence
Design training programmes to activate unemployed
Inform decisions on course funding/provision
Enable strategic business decisions
Inform the design of national qualification frameworks (NQFs)

National data have been used as inputs to the model. The model made use of a dynamic general equilibrium econometric model that allowed for the impact assessment of new interventions, such as labour market policies. Therefore, it has been relevant for the assessment of national policies, as well as for strategic business decision at the sectoral level.

Financial schemes

The initiative has been financed via an ESF project. There are no other financial schemes or instruments involved. Its functioning after 2012 has been sustained by the INCSMPS using own resources.

Frequency of updates

The instrument has now been discontinued. Before that, there were updates on an ad-hoc basis.

Development

The partner FGB made several modifications to the model to adjust it to Romanian realities and data availability. However, the main model has not been changed. Equations have been tested and adjusted for Romanian data.

Barriers

Not particularly. The two partners have been smoothly cooperating during and after the project period.

Success factors

The good cooperation between the two partners, as well as the fact that the two organizations involved share the same goals and have a commonality of interests and preoccupations.

Monitoring

The progress has been assessed by the number of successive projects that have been developed following its implementation (the so-called multiplier effects in the economy and society, as it has been called in the initial project proposal).

Innovativeness
Very innovative

Very innovative as it is introducing a novel method of econometric modelling that is capable of assessing the impact of "exogenous shocks" on an already functioning system, i.e. the newly introduced active labour market policies are to be assimilated to "shocks" to an existing and functioning system and therefore their "impact" can be assessed against a state where they would not have existed (the shock would not have taken place actually).

Sustainability

Evidence of effectiveness

The National Institute produced a set of studies for the Ministry of Labour (2014-15) that assessed the performance of the active labour market measures, active ageing measures, vocational education and training incentives for enterprises and activation measures for the rural areas. Benefits have been in line with expectations. The instrument has been useful for the further development of the Institute's capacity to provide professional support for decision making in the area of labour market, employment and skills' development policies. The instrument has also been useful for active ageing measures' assessment, as well as being considered as an alternative to the more traditional instrument CEDEFOP is using for the forecasting of the demand and supply for skills at Pan European level.

Engagement of stakeholders

The engagement with stakeholders has been on an ad-hoc basis, i.e. when projects have been contracted with the various beneficiaries, and a need to use outputs or methodological elements of the instrument has arisen.

Transferability
Not easily transferable

Not easily transferable even though elements of the instruments have already been used in Italy by Fondazione G. Brodolini Italy.

Sustainability

The instrument has been discontinued, but the experience gained has been capitalized in other projects, as well as in the construction of other instruments.

Evaluation and forecasting of the potential labour demand for higher education graduates up to 2020

Evaluarea si prognoza cererii de munca potentiale pentru absolventii de invatamant superior in structura ocupationala la orizontul anului 2020

Description

Timespan

2013-15 and currently run by the Ministry of National Education.

Stage
Fully operational
Focus area
Matching skills for today’s job market
Matching skills for the future of work

Foundations

Policy area
Higher education

The instrument has been elaborated specifically to assess the labour demand for higher education graduates and thus to aid in the adaptation of the higher education supply to the needs of the labour market.

Policy goal

The policy focuses on matching the supply of higher educated graduates with the demand of the employers, the adaptation of curricula and strengthen the link between higher education supply and the changing demands of the real economy. The instrument has been designed to assist the decision making at national level and thus reduce the gap between the supply of higher educated graduates and the demand coming from the labour market. It has been used to forecast trends by occupation and thus inform the national decision making process, as well as at the university level, with respect to the trends of the labour market and help adjust the structure of the university studies, adjust curricula and education plans and ultimately assist in creating a better match between education and the needs of the enterprises.

Mismatch
Explicitly designed to address skill mismatch

The instrument is explicitly designed to address skills mismatches by providing decision makers with an instrument to assess the trends in the labour market at the occupational level, and thus tackle mismatches between the supply of higher educated graduates and the needs of the labour market by occupation. It also helps in designing and tailoring curricula according to the changing content of occupations.

Aim of policy instrument
Address skill shortages
Match skills of young graduates
Facilitate job/career transitions
Legal basis
Other
Administrative level
National
Main responsible body

The Ministry of National Education

Stakeholders
Government (central & regional)
Research centres and universities

The National Scientific Research Institute in the field of Labour and Social Protection (INCSMPS) has been responsible for the design of the forecasting instrument, as well as of the occupational analyses. After the termination of the ESF financed project, current funding of the system only comes from the national budget. Monitoring is done by the Ministry of National Education.

Funding

The funding comes from the state budget under the regular allocations for the functioning of the central apparatus of the Ministry of Education, the department for higher education.

Intended beneficiaries

The higher education institutions, as well as the Ministry of Education and research centres.

Processes

Use of labour market intelligence
Inform decisions on course funding/provision
Inform career-making decisions of students
Enable strategic business decisions
Design standards and accreditation

A forecasting instrument has been designed with a focus on occupation groups using LFS and Census data. It provides the decision makers with information on the main trends regarding the demand for a certain occupation in terms of the replacement and of the expansion demand.

Financial schemes

The project has been financed via the ESF under SOP HRD 2007-13.

Frequency of updates

The Ministry of Education does regularly updates, but it is not possible to tell how frequently these are performed.

Development

The approach has been adjusted to provide more detail on occupations. Several test runs have taken place so as to ensure that the main occupation trends are correctly represented, and that the results are plausible (the results of forecasting at occupational level should not come into contradiction with results of forecast at sector level).

Barriers

There were no barriers in the implementation of the project.

Success factors

Good cooperation between the partners in the project (INCSMPS and the Ministry of Education).

Monitoring

The progress is measured by the Ministry of Education, but no indicators are actually available to date.

Innovativeness
Very innovative

It has been an approach focusing on the forecasting of trends by occupation, with a high level of disaggregation.

Sustainability

Evidence of effectiveness

There is no impact evaluation, but there is evidence that the decisions of the Ministry of Education regarding the number of students, and especially the number of students' places, in state higher education institutions for the different profiles of study and specializations of higher education are taken based on the data provided by the instrument. Benefits have been largely as expected. No unexpected costs or benefits, but there is a need to provide financing for each update of the instrument.

Engagement of stakeholders

Stakeholders are engaged regularly by the Ministry of Education, who is constantly cooperating on this issue with the universities, as well as with organisations, unions of the students, and professors' and non-didactic staff unions etc.

Transferability
Easily transferable

The occupational analysis, as well as the occupational element of the instrument may be transferred, but an ISCO type structure of the occupations has to be available. The variations in the classifications of sectors of activity may cause some disturbances as the trends will be affected. However, it should be taken into account that for transferability, significant changes to the system of equations that underpins the whole instrument would need to be made.

Sustainability

The instrument may continue for the coming years, but there is a clear need of funding for updating.

Matching VET supply with labour market demand

Corelarea ofertei invatamantului profesional si tehnic cu cerintele pietei muncii

Description

Timespan

The instrument is operational, as the Regional and local action plans for VET are updated on a regular basis.

Stage
Fully operational
Focus area
Matching skills for today’s job market
Matching skills for the future of work

Foundations

Policy area
Adult education and training

The instrument, consisting of forecasting studies and analyses, has been developed for the substantiation of the local and regional action plans for VET, which are a partnership for involving all relevant stakeholders at local and regional level in the development of VET specific supply and its matching with local and regional market demand.

Policy goal

Identification of future skills shortages and needs/demands. This project focused on the identification of the potential demand for VET, based on quantitative approach, having been inspired by the Pan-European model to forecast the supply and demand for skills, referring to levels of occupations and terms of development of regions and their relation to VET demand.

Mismatch
Explicitly designed to address skill mismatch

The instrument has been designed to monitor skills demands and supply as part of a general reform of VET in Romania, which aims at matching the supply of VET as closely as possible with the demands of the employers.

Aim of policy instrument
Upskill and match skills of unemployed
Address skill shortages
Upskill employed adults
Match skills of young graduates
Facilitate job/career transitions
Legal basis
Other
Administrative level
Regional
Main responsible body

The National Centre for the Development of Vocational Education and Training (CNDIPT- Centru National pentru Dezvoltarea Invatamantului Profesional si Tehnic)

Stakeholders
Government (central & regional)
Research centres and universities

The National Scientific Research Institute for Labour and Social Protection of Romania (INCSMPS) has been in charge of the development of the forecasting and analysis component of the project. A transnational partner from PT has also been involved in the part relating to mutual learning and exchanges of good practices and experiences.

Funding

The instrument is financed from the annual budget of the CNDIPT (no figures specifically for the instrument are available).

Intended beneficiaries

The project's main target are the directors of VET schools. Employers, union leaders, academics with an interest in VET, and local and regional stakeholders such as the local authorities have also been targeted.

Processes

Use of labour market intelligence
Inform job-search decisions of unemployed
Inform decisions on course funding/provision
Enable strategic business decisions
Inform and train career guidance and counsellors
Inform the design of national qualification frameworks (NQFs)

National and regional data on VET, labour force and population, as well as national and regional economic and labour market trends. The econometric model has been based on time series data and LFS data have been used. The forecasting studies have been validated by the main regional and local stakeholders before being released to the public.

Financial schemes

The project has been financed from an ESF project under the SOP HRD 2007-13.

Frequency of updates

The instrument is maintained by the Centre for the Development of VET (the CNDIPT). The updates coincides with the production of the regional and local action plans for VET, which are annual.

Development

No changes to the instrument have been made.

Barriers

Not specific ones except some lack of information, especially at regional and local level and the shortness of data series.

Success factors

Good cooperation with local and regional stakeholders in VET.

Monitoring

The National Centre for the development of VET is assessing the progress. The main measure is the regular updating and elaboration of regional and local action plans for VET.

Innovativeness
Very innovative

Very innovative as it is aimed at forecasting at regional and even local level, which brought the instrument very much in line with the demands of the local communities interested in the development of VET.

Sustainability

Evidence of effectiveness

The regular updating and elaboration of the regional and local action plans for VET is evidence of the effectiveness of the project. However, there is no evidence of a particular and dedicated assessment exercise of the instrument being undertaken so far. The benefits have been in line with expectations. Enterprise and unions at local and regional level have also been interested in the project.

Engagement of stakeholders

Stakeholders are involved, as the action plans have to be produced on an annual basis. Therefore, there are annual meetings both at the regional and local level.

Transferability
Easily transferable

Easily transferable as elements of the instruments have already been used in some other EU member states with developed employment structures and policies.

Sustainability

The instrument will continue, as it is supporting the production of the VET action plans at regional and local level.

Partnership analysis and labour market forecasting system with continuing adaptation to economic dynamics

Sistem partenerial de analiza si prognoza pentru piata muncii adaptat continuu la dinamica economica - POSDRU 180/4.1./S/155259

Description

Timespan

Operational since 2015.

Stage
Fully operational
Focus area
Matching skills for today’s job market
Matching skills for the future of work

Foundations

Policy area
Active labour market policies

It is used to better inform employers in the labour market and to assist in targeting the interventions of the National Agency for Employment.

Policy goal

The aim is to respond to a growing need of updated information from employers, social partners and other stakeholders of the labour market, in order to improve access to labour market information, to deal with mismatches, as well as to enhance the capabilities of the National Agency for Employment to provide and elaborate labour market analyses and forecasts.

Mismatch
Explicitly designed to address skill mismatch

By providing in depth analysis and forecast, including at the regional level and by occupation, it assists employers in meeting their skills need and filling their skills' gaps. It also enables the public employment services to better target its supply of specific interventions and thus allocate resources efficiently.

Aim of policy instrument
Upskill employed adults
Match skills of young graduates
Broadly address skill mismatch
Legal basis
Other
Administrative level
Regional
Main responsible body

National Agency for Employment (Agentia Nationala pentru Ocuparea Fortei de Munca, ANOFM)

Stakeholders
Chambers of commerce and industry
Employer federations
Government (central & regional)
Research centres and universities
Trade unions

The National Research Institute in the field of Labour and Social Protection of Romania (INCSMPS) has been the main partner that has designed the technical part of the instrument and supplied the methodology for the forecasting instrument, as well as performing regular updates upon request. However, monitoring, evaluation and maintenance are entirely the responsibility of the National Agency for Employment (NAE). The other stakeholders have been involved in the testing of the instrument, as well as in the validation of the data from forecasting.

Funding

The current functioning of the system (following termination of the ESF financed project) is financed from the annual budget of the PES.

Intended beneficiaries

The main beneficiary of the system is the National Agency for Employment and its territorial offices (the "judet" employment offices - 42 nationally, one each for every judet/county and one for the municipality of Bucharest, and the local employment offices). Enterprises, unions, local authorities, academia, civil society and individuals in search of a job and training opportunities are also counted as beneficiaries.

Processes

Use of labour market intelligence
Design training programmes to activate unemployed
Inform decisions on course funding/provision
Enable strategic business decisions
Inform and train career guidance and counsellors

The instrument creates a platform, which may be used by various stakeholders to provide valuable and in-depth labour market intelligence, including forecast and analysis at the regional level. Forecasting has been based on information derived from national statistical sources, with breakdown by region and occupation. Targeted questionnaires have been used to fine tune the information resulting form the quantitative approach.

Financial schemes

The system's elaboration and testing has been financed via an ESF project under the SOP HRD 2007-13. Therefore opening and maintaining an user account is free of any charge.

Frequency of updates

The system is updated regularly by the national PES (the labour market analysis directorate), as well as by the stakeholders.

Development

During the implementation period, the approach has been discussed with relevant stakeholders at regional and local level to tailor it to specific needs of employers. In particular, questionnaires have been adapted and re-calibrated so as to include variables suggested by different stakeholders. The process has been conducted via a series of workshops.

Barriers

Nothing specific. It was, however, difficult to involve stakeholders outside the public service in the updating and testing of the instrument. This has been overcome through careful contacting, and the provision of information regarding the potential advantages of being part of the process.

Success factors

The good cooperation with stakeholders (enterprises, unions and academia).

Monitoring

Progress is measured by the National Agency for Employment, looking at the number of users and the number of forecasts and analysis produced.

Innovativeness
Very innovative

The approach has involved the stakeholders of the labour market, including employers and unions, as well labour market specialists in the design and testing of the instrument. The updating of the forecasts and analyses provided is also based on the inputs provided by the stakeholders, which complements the quantitative approach.

Sustainability

Evidence of effectiveness

The system is effective and is currently being used by the PES. However, there is no particular assessment of its effectiveness. It seems that the benefits have matched the expectations.

Engagement of stakeholders

The PES has the obligation to maintain the system, ensuring it's functioning for a minimum period of three years after termination of the financing contract (the contract has been up and running for 10 months in 2015). The system allows for users to make their own personalized accounts and receive the information delivered by the system or input information. The PES plans to maintain the system's functionality by continuingly updating its information, as well as by encouraging users to access it. Funding for the continued functioning of the system is ensured via the PES regular (annual) budget allocations. The INCSMPS is no longer involved in the instrument, except if by request from the NAE. The social partners may be involved if they are requested to by the PES.

Transferability
Easily transferable

The instrument may be transferred with relative ease. The forecasting model, however, would have to be adjusted. The general approach, which involves the PES, the social partners and a research organization can be easily transferred.

Sustainability

The system will continue to be operated by the PES. However, funding will have to be allocated for an overhaul of its function, so as to avoid its obsolescence.