The instrument presents the main labour market indicators (e.g. unemployment, employment, unemployment and employment rate, social benefit receipt rate) for several groups of immigrants (immigrants from the EU, refugees, immigrants from the Balkans) and thus provides a broad picture of the level of labour market integration of immigrants in Germany.
Methods
Methods
What methods of undertaking skills assessments and / or skills anticipation does the policy instrument utilise?
Other
The instrument is based on German PES statistics.
Use of skills intelligence
How is labour market information / skills intelligence used within the initiative?
The immigration monitor itself is a labour market information tool.
Stakeholders
Main responsible body
Main body or organisation with overall responsibility for the initiative.
National PES
Bundesagentur für Arbeit and its research institute IAB.
Other involved organisations
Which other organisations have a role in the initiative?
National PES
The Federal Employment Agency is the official "Consulting addressee" of the initiative.
Sustainability
Success factors
SUCCESS FACTORS in the implementation
There was a lack of systematic labour market monitoring of immigration in Germany before 2015. The immigration monitor fills this gap.
Barriers
BARRIERS in the implementation
Internet access is required.
Monitoring and evaluation
MONITORING and EVALUATION: Is progress measured regularly? What are the indicators used to measure progress of the policy instrument? Have any evaluations been conducted?
No evaluations of the instrument are (publicly) available.
Updates
UPDATES: whether there have been any major updates of the initiative since it has been implemented?
The structure of the reports is the same since October 2015.
No
Effectiveness
EVIDENCE ON EFFECTIVENESS: How effective is the policy instrument?
The immigration monitor is a major source for the most important labour market indicators about immigrants to Germany that is published monthly in an approachable, compact form. Indicators are regularly cited in the press and in policy reports. However, for the general public, some indicators (e.g. on benefit receipt) might be hard to interpret.
Sustainability
SUSTAINABILITY: How sustainable is the policy instrument? Do you expect the instrument to continue over the next few years and why?
Even though immigration to Germany declined substantially since the implementation of the immigration monitor in 2015 it is still updated monthly by IAB. There are no indicatons that this will change in the future.
Informing people in the labour market on career choice opportunities. It helps all interested parties (PES employees, journalists, politicians, company representatives, people who want to choose their career) to process information on the local, regional, and national labour market.
Funding
How it is funded?
Other
BERUFENET is funded by the German PES. No information on the amount of funding is publicly available.
Skill mismatch
Skill mismatch target
What type(s) of skills MISMATCH does the initiative aim to addresses?
Other
The portal does not exclusively focus on skills mismatch, but career choices of individuals directly affect the extent of skills mismatch. With information provided on the portal, skills mismatch might become visible for participants in the labour market.
Skills matching focus
How does the initiative address skills mismatches?
BERUFENET includes a large amount of information on various occupations.
Stakeholders
Main responsible body
Main body or organisation with overall responsibility for the initiative.
National PES
Bundesagentur für Arbeit (German PES)
Other involved organisations
Which other organisations have a role in the initiative?
Other
BERUFENET is a service of the German PES for its customers and therefore does not rely strongly on input from external stakeholders.
Sustainability
Success factors
SUCCESS FACTORS in the implementation
In general, increasing availability and use of the internet should have broadened the user base of the instrument.
Barriers
BARRIERS in the implementation
Internet access is required to access information on the website. As the BERUFENET database is very comprehensive, users might be overwhelmed by the large amount of information.
Monitoring and evaluation
MONITORING and EVALUATION: Is progress measured regularly? What are the indicators used to measure progress of the policy instrument? Have any evaluations been conducted?
Progress could be measured by internet traffic/number of users. However, no information is publicly available.
Updates
UPDATES: whether there have been any major updates of the initiative since it has been implemented?
Yes
In December 2015, the interface of the website was updated to improve user-friendliness.
Effectiveness
EVIDENCE ON EFFECTIVENESS: How effective is the policy instrument?
No information is publicly available.
Sustainability
SUSTAINABILITY: How sustainable is the policy instrument? Do you expect the instrument to continue over the next few years and why?
BERUFENET is updated regularly. There is no indication that the Federal Employment Agency will discontinue this instrument, and the internet will remain important in the future, as a channel for gathering information on skills.
PROSIMA helps to understand and predict developments in the apprenticeship market and the impact of policy measures that affect the apprenticeship market. It produces a simulation model of the national apprenticeship market (supply and demand). Politicians have to react to developments in the apprenticeship market, e.g. to prevent skills shortages in specific sectors or to promote specific occupations. POSIMA helps to understand these interventions and measure their effects.
As students interested in vocational training can access the Berufsbildungsbericht (Vocational training report) which includes results from PROSIMA they can also consider those LMI to inform their career-making choices.
As enterprises and sector organisations can access the Berufsbildungsbericht (Vocational training report) which includes results from PROSIMA they can use those LMI in order to take informed strategic business decisions.
Stakeholders
Main responsible body
Main body or organisation with overall responsibility for the initiative.
National ministry
Federal Ministry for Education and Research (BMBF)
Other involved organisations
Which other organisations have a role in the initiative?
Research centres, universities
Federal Institute for Vocational Education and Training (Bibb), in charge of the predictions. Developed in cooperation with the University Bochum.
Other
Employers provide inputs to the model
Sustainability
Success factors
SUCCESS FACTORS in the implementation
The model allowes a very detailed modelling of the apprenticeship market in Germany (use of 210 determinants). It is innovative in the regard that it is specifically models the German training system, which is very complex and regulated.
Barriers
BARRIERS in the implementation
A lot of data is necessary for the analysis
Monitoring and evaluation
MONITORING and EVALUATION: Is progress measured regularly? What are the indicators used to measure progress of the policy instrument? Have any evaluations been conducted?
Anually, the Bibb evaluates and develops the instrument further (in so-called "Up-Date-rounds").
Updates
UPDATES: whether there have been any major updates of the initiative since it has been implemented?
Please describe whether there have been any major updates of the initiative since it was first implemented and what were these and why were they introduced (max. 50 words)
Yes
The model is updated and developed regularly.
Effectiveness
EVIDENCE ON EFFECTIVENESS: How effective is the policy instrument?
According to BiBB, predictions of the model were accurate. Results of PROSIMA are published annualy in the Vocational Training Report. Therefore, a wider audience might be aware of this instrument to predict supply and demand on the apprenticeship market.
Sustainability
SUSTAINABILITY: How sustainable is the policy instrument? Do you expect the instrument to continue over the next few years and why?
The instrument will continue for the coming years, as it is a continuous task of the BiBB.
The initiative provides a long-term overview of the likely development of labour demand and supply in terms of qualifications and occupations. The QuBe basic projection reflects labour market development if existing trends and modes of behaviour continue to apply in the education and training system and in the economy. It thus makes a consistent pathway of development visible.
Legal base (E.g. Law, regulation, implementing provision, other)
The project has three project partners (BIBB; IAB and GWS) and each is reponsible of and finances specific aspects of the project: https://www.bibb.de/en/11959.php
Starting period
TIMESPAN: In what year did the initiative commence?
2010, the 2020 projections were made available in the 6th wave of the project
Perspective
PERSPECTIVE: is the initiative based on evidence derived from skill forecasts or foresight activities?
The sixth wave of the BIBB-IAB qualifications and occupation projections updates the development of labour supply and labour demand up until the year 2040 in a differentiated way by 141 occupational groups (three-digit code of the German Classification of Occupations 2010) and in accordance with four qualifications and requirements levels.
Policy area
To which POLICY AREAS(s) does the initiative apply?
Firms can adjust their hiring/training strategies and individuals trainings matching the occupation shortages
Skills delivered
What types of skill does the initiative deliver?
Career management skills
Methods
Methods
What methods of undertaking skills assessments and / or skills anticipation does the policy instrument utilise?
Skills forecasting
The idea behind the concept of the QuBe Project is to update past correlations in the education and training system and on the labour market that are observed in the basic projection. For details, please see https://www.bibb.de/en/11733.php.
Use of skills intelligence
How is labour market information / skills intelligence used within the initiative?
The information can be used by both individuals and enterprises to decide about qualifications/trainings necessary to match skills required in each occupation.
The detailed projection results can be viewed on the QuBe Data Portal (https://www.bibb.de/de/qube_datenportal.php) and therefore acessed by students in order to inform career-making decisions.
The detailed projection results can be viewed on the QuBe Data Portal (https://www.bibb.de/de/qube_datenportal.php) and therefore acessed by unemployed in order to inform job-search decisions.
The detailed projection results can be viewed on the QuBe Data Portal (https://www.bibb.de/de/qube_datenportal.php) and therefore acessed by enterprises or sector organisations in order inform/enable strategic business decisions.
Stakeholders
Main responsible body
Main body or organisation with overall responsibility for the initiative.
National agency
The Institute for Labour Market and Career Research (IAB) of the Federal Employment Agency shares the leadership of the QuBe project with the Federal Institute for Vocational Education and Training (BIBB) in terms of specialisms and content. The focus of the IAB in this respect is on the demand side of the labour market. Projections of requirements generated as part of the QuBe project are thus financed by the IAB and forecasts of demand for qualifications are also being prepared by them.
National PES
The Institute for Labour Market and Career Research (IAB) of the Federal Employment Agency shares the leadership of the QuBe project with the Federal Institute for Vocational Education and Training (BIBB) in terms of specialisms and content. The focus of the IAB in this respect is on the demand side of the labour market. Projections of requirements generated as part of the QuBe project are thus financed by the IAB and forecasts of demand for qualifications are also being prepared by them.
Other involved organisations
Which other organisations have a role in the initiative?
Research centres, universities
The Institute of Economic Structures Research (GWS mbH) is developing macroeconomic forecast and simulation models upon which the QuBe project's long-term projections and the scenarios are based.
Sustainability
Success factors
SUCCESS FACTORS in the implementation
The project represents the most regular labour market forecast in Germany.
Barriers
BARRIERS in the implementation
The increased migration in particular of refugees in the year 2015, necessitated the creation of their own QuBe population projection. The introduction of the Occupational Classification of 2010 (KldB 2010) also made it necessary to adjust the 54 BIBB occupational fields previously used to 50 BIBB occupational fields.
Monitoring and evaluation
MONITORING and EVALUATION: Is progress measured regularly? What are the indicators used to measure progress of the policy instrument? Have any evaluations been conducted?
The methodology is updated regularly.
Updates
UPDATES: whether there have been any major updates of the initiative since it has been implemented?
Yes
Different focus points of analysis are set from wave to wave (e.g. digitisation of the labour market or immigration).
Effectiveness
EVIDENCE ON EFFECTIVENESS: How effective is the policy instrument?
Evaluations of the project are not available, results of the forecast are however regularly discussed in the press, by policy makers and relevant stakeholders.
Sustainability
SUSTAINABILITY: How sustainable is the policy instrument? Do you expect the instrument to continue over the next few years and why?
The policy instrument is sustainable and the wide availability of microdata allows to adjust the methodology to macro/micro changes over time.
Qualification Opportunities Act
Qualifizierungschancengesetz (Gesetz zur Stärkung der Chancen für Qualifizierung und für mehr Schutz in der Arbeitslosenversicherung)
The Skills Development Opportunities Act has significantly extended and improved possibilities for funding of advanced training. Further adjustments for employer and employee needs were implemented with the act for promoting vocational further education in the process of structural change and for further developing educational funding. The policy is linked to skills forecasting as training is funded if their work can be replaced by technologies or is otherwise affected by structural change.
With the Act the federal employment agency supports employees’ qualifications. For companies with up to 10 members of staff up to 100% advanced training costs are covered.
Skills delivered
What types of skill does the initiative deliver?
Basic literacy and numeracy skills
Basic digital skills
More advanced digital skills
General employability skills (team working, communication, etc.)
Methods
Methods
What methods of undertaking skills assessments and / or skills anticipation does the policy instrument utilise?
Other
LMI of the German PES whuích is involved in the process of promoting further training.
Use of skills intelligence
How is labour market information / skills intelligence used within the initiative?
Indirectly to define which jobs are at risk because of structural change.
Stakeholders
Main responsible body
Main body or organisation with overall responsibility for the initiative.
National ministry
Federal Ministry for Employment and Social Affairs (BMAS).
National PES
The German PES is involved.
Other involved organisations
Which other organisations have a role in the initiative?
Social partner: employer organisation
Deliver opinions on draft laws before they are passed.
Social partner: trade union
Deliver opinions on draft laws before they are passed.
Other
Associations (deliver opinions on draft laws before they are passed).
Sustainability
Success factors
SUCCESS FACTORS in the implementation
The Act opened further training instruments of the German PES to the employed.
Barriers
BARRIERS in the implementation
The German further training system itself in itself is very fragmented and instransparent, which might limit the effectiveness of the instrument.
Monitoring and evaluation
MONITORING and EVALUATION: Is progress measured regularly? What are the indicators used to measure progress of the policy instrument? Have any evaluations been conducted?
In an answer to an interpellation in the Bundestag in March 2020, the Federal Government stated that the German PES recorded around 29600 entrants to further vocational training measures as part of employee training from January to October 2019. In the same period of the previous year this number was 27000 (https://dip21.bundestag.de/dip21/btd/19/178/1917878.pdf).
Updates
UPDATES: whether there have been any major updates of the initiative since it has been implemented?
Yes
In 2020 the Government undertook additional steps to strengthen and widen the subsidies through the “Work of Tomorrow Act”.
Effectiveness
EVIDENCE ON EFFECTIVENESS: How effective is the policy instrument?
No official evaluaton is available yet. According to the research instiute of the German PES (IAB, December 2020), the Qualification Opportunities Act did not result in a significant jump in the number of promoted further training courses for employees yet(https://www.iab.de/de/informationsservice/presse/presseinformationen/kb…).
Sustainability
SUSTAINABILITY: How sustainable is the policy instrument? Do you expect the instrument to continue over the next few years and why?
Against the background of skilled workers shortage and changing skills needs due to digitisation the instrument might become more relevant in the future.
This initiative aims to analyse skilled worker shortages in Germany and identifiy bottleneck occupations. Until March 2020, this analysis was the backbone of the regularly updated Positivliste (list of occupations where immigration from non-EU countries is promoted).
Until March 2020, the list of bottleneck occupations informed policy directly. It can still be used by other parties as the reports are available online.
Skills delivered
What types of skill does the initiative deliver?
Career management skills
Methods
Methods
What methods of undertaking skills assessments and / or skills anticipation does the policy instrument utilise?
Other
Registed employed and unemployed from the Federal Employment Agency. The classification as to whether or not an occupation should be considered as a bottleneck occupation is essentially based on how long it takes to fill a vacancy registered at the PES (vacancy time). In addition, further information, such as the number of vacancies or the inflows and outflows from unemployment as well as qualitative occupational information, are included in the assessment.
Use of skills intelligence
How is labour market information / skills intelligence used within the initiative?
With this instrument, LMI was used directly to adress skills skills by promoting immigration into specific bottleneck occupations.
Stakeholders
Main responsible body
Main body or organisation with overall responsibility for the initiative.
National PES
Bundesagentur für Arbeit (German PES)/ the Federal Employment Agency (English). This is a service of the German PES for its customers and therefore does not rely strongly on input from external stakeholders.
Other involved organisations
Which other organisations have a role in the initiative?
National PES
Quantitative data anlysis performed by PES
Other
The initiative used to be part of the system of steered migration in Germany. Therefore, all stakeholders with a connection to labour migration are affected by the initiative. However, as it is an quantitative instrument of the German PES that runs on data analysis, the influence of other organisations is limited.
Sustainability
Success factors
SUCCESS FACTORS in the implementation
Through the instrument LMI had direct impacts on how immigration promotion is designed in Germany. It is still a valuable source on bottleneck occupations on the German labour market.
Barriers
BARRIERS in the implementation
Due to higher demand for immigrants, the instruments role in shaping immigration policy was replaced by the skilled workers immigration law (Fachkräfteeinwanderungsgesetz) in March 2020.
Monitoring and evaluation
MONITORING and EVALUATION: Is progress measured regularly? What are the indicators used to measure progress of the policy instrument? Have any evaluations been conducted?
As it is a very quantitative instrument to evaluate skills needs it is not necessarily subject to evaluation, but rather itself an evaluation tool to identify bottleneck occupations.
Updates
UPDATES: whether there have been any major updates of the initiative since it has been implemented?
Yes
From 2020, the report will be published every year instead of every half year as before
Effectiveness
EVIDENCE ON EFFECTIVENESS: How effective is the policy instrument?
It was very effective as the results of the analysis directly and automatically influenced migration regulations.
Sustainability
SUSTAINABILITY: How sustainable is the policy instrument? Do you expect the instrument to continue over the next few years and why?
The initiative was updated regularly every half year before December 2019. Since 2020, the initiative will continue with one publication every year. With the implementation of the skilled workers immigration law, the importance of the instrument declined substantially. It is nevertheless a good example on how LMI can inform labour market policy directly.
Main body or organisation with overall responsibility for the initiative.
National PES
Federal Employment Agency
Regional PES
Regional offices of the Federal Employment Agency
Sustainability
Success factors
SUCCESS FACTORS in the implementation
Increasing availability and use of the internet should have broaden the user base of the instrument.
Barriers
BARRIERS in the implementation
An internet access is needed to access the website.
Monitoring and evaluation
MONITORING and EVALUATION: Is progress measured regularly? What are the indicators used to measure progress of the policy instrument? Have any evaluations been conducted?
Progress could be measured by monitoring the number of users. However, no information is publicly available if this is actually measured.
Updates
UPDATES: whether there have been any major updates of the initiative since it has been implemented?
No
Effectiveness
EVIDENCE ON EFFECTIVENESS: How effective is the policy instrument?
No information is publicly available.
Sustainability
SUSTAINABILITY: How sustainable is the policy instrument? Do you expect the instrument to continue over the next few years and why?
Yes, as monitoring of skilled workers shortage will remain very important.
The initiative reviews the training contents of VET education and produces information brochures and regulations, which provide information on a unique procedure for the development of training regulations. The arrangements form the basis for initial training in the dual system, in which many young people in Germany begin their vocational qualification.
Legal base (E.g. Law, regulation, implementing provision, other)
An agreement between the federal government and the federal states regulates the procedure for coordinating training regulations and framework curricula. The process in general is described in the Vocational Training Act.
Starting period
TIMESPAN: In what year did the initiative commence?
1972
Perspective
PERSPECTIVE: is the initiative based on evidence derived from skill forecasts or foresight activities?
BiBB creates the prerequisites for the training regulations to be redesigned, revised and adapted in accordance with economic, technical and social changes. This redesign is informed by all kinds of LMI, including skills forecasts and foresight activities.
Policy area
To which POLICY AREAS(s) does the initiative apply?
By modernizing training regulations according to skills needs.
Skills delivered
What types of skill does the initiative deliver?
Basic literacy and numeracy skills
depends on the occupation/training regulation
Basic digital skills
depends on the occupation/training regulation
More advanced digital skills
depends on the occupation/training regulation
General employability skills (team working, communication, etc.)
depends on the occupation/training regulation
Green skills
depends on the occupation/training regulation
Methods
Methods
What methods of undertaking skills assessments and / or skills anticipation does the policy instrument utilise?
Expert panels
Experts from training practice, the Federal Institute for Vocational Education and Training (BIBB), experts from vocational training schools, employers, trade unions, and Federal Government
Use of skills intelligence
How is labour market information / skills intelligence used within the initiative?
Please select the most important options and explain how the labour market information (LMI) has been used (maximum 50 words)
In the process LMI is used to design and update training regulations.
Stakeholders
Main responsible body
Main body or organisation with overall responsibility for the initiative.
National agency
Bundesinstitut für Berufsbildung (BiBB)
Other involved organisations
Which other organisations have a role in the initiative?
National ministry
The federal government provides the legal framework for vocational training through laws and ordinances. These are issued by the responsible federal ministries in agreement with the Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) through statutory ordinances.
Social partner: employer organisation
part of the advisory process
Social partner: trade union
part of the advisory process
National PES
part of the advisory process
Chambers of Commerce
part of the advisory process
Training Providers
part of the advisory process
Research centres, universities
part of the advisory process
Other
All kinds of (relevant) stakeholders are involved in the process (depending on the VET qualification)
Sustainability
Success factors
SUCCESS FACTORS in the implementation
A wide range of different institutions (employers, unions, ministries, associations etc.) are involved in the process. This ensures that training regulations also meet the demand of the labour market. Also, the system is deeply routed in the German vocational training system.
Barriers
BARRIERS in the implementation
Updating training regulations often takes a long time due to the involvement of a wide range of stakeholders. In some occupations were skills needs change very rapidely (e.g. ICT occupations) it can therefore be a challenge to keep training regulations up to date.
Monitoring and evaluation
MONITORING and EVALUATION: Is progress measured regularly? What are the indicators used to measure progress of the policy instrument? Have any evaluations been conducted?
Progress could be measured/evaluated by vocational training job matching. However, an evaluation of the process is not publicly available.
Updates
UPDATES: whether there have been any major updates of the initiative since it has been implemented?
EVIDENCE ON EFFECTIVENESS: How effective is the policy instrument?
No information is publicly available, but the Vocational Training Act as a whole was evaluated in 2016 by the Federal Ministry of Education (https://www.bmbf.de/files/2016-03-23_Evaluationsbericht_BBiG.pdf). According to this, the process has proven itself extensively in over 40 years of professional training practice as it ensures that ll regulations relating to dual vocational training are mutually agreed in the federal-state coordination without interfering with the sole competencies of the federal and state governments.
Sustainability
SUSTAINABILITY: How sustainable is the policy instrument? Do you expect the instrument to continue over the next few years and why?
There is no indication that the BIBB will discontinue this instrument.