EU-27

Employment in the European Union (EU) is forecast to pass its 2008 pre-crisis level in next few years and, according to Cedefop’s skills supply and demand forecasts, will continue to rise up to 2030. Skills supply and demand over the next decade seem strongly influenced by future economic (GDP) growth rates, effects of the economic crisis that began in 2008 and demographic change. Variations are sometimes considerable between Member States. Unemployment in the EU remains high, compared to years previous to the crisis. But EU averages also mask wide differences across countries. For example, unemployment in Czech Republic and Germany remains very low, but is high in Spain and Greece.

By 2030, most job growth in the EU as a whole is expected in professional and administrative services, as well as in arts & recreation sector, and non-marketed (mainly public sector) services. Job losses will continue in the primary sector, especially in mining and agriculture. Most future job opportunities in the EU are forecast for associate professionals (mid- to high skilled jobs in science, engineering, healthcare, business and education) and managers. Showing signs of labour market polarisation, employment of elementary workers will also increase while most medium-skilled jobs like clerks or trades workers will decline.

Till 2030, most job openings (including replacements for vacated jobs) in the EU will require high or medium level qualifications. Much less opportunities will be available for people with low qualifications who now comprise around a quarter of EU’s workforce. Only around one tenth of total job openings in the period of 2016-2030 will be suitable for people with low qualification levels.