Occupational barometer

In 2019, the research was conducted by all 12 regional ESS offices for the first time. The research predicted the supply and demand in 177 professions for the year 2020. One more reason was added to the existing three for the shortage occupations: structural factors (disability, average age of unemployed or job seekers) influence the lack of staff in this profession.

The same methodology was applied for the prediction for 2021.

Major conclusions from the 2020 research results:

1. shortage is predicted for 94 professions (110 in 2019);
2. balance is predicted for 63 professions (53 in 2019);
3. surplus is predicted for 20 professions (16 in 2019).

Most notable is the shift of the shop assistants from shortage to surplus, as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The results of the Occupational barometer 2021, based on 177 assessed professions, predicted:

1. shortage for 108 professions (94 in 2020);
2. balance for 51 professions (63 in 2020);
3. surplus is predicted for 18 professions (20 in 2020).

Shortage is predicted especially in healthcare professions, information technologies, education, construction, service and hospitality professions. Most notable is the shift in education professions from balance to shortage, which applies to kindergarten, primary and upper secondary school levels.

The results of the Occupational Barometer 2022 survey predict a shortage for a number of professions in health care, information technology, education, construction, transport and hospitality.

182 occupations were assessed, of which:

1. shortage in predicted for 99 occupations;
2. balance is predicted for 46 occupations;
3. surplus is predicted for 37 occupations.

Main conclusions:

There are nine occupations less in the deficit than last year, five occupations less in the balance category, and the surplus category is larger this year by 19 occupational groups.

The most noticeable change is in the field of information transfer in call centres, telephone sales and delivery. For these occupations the last forecasts predicted a deficit, while now they are in surplus category.

Also, the latest edition of the Occupational Barometer shows a projected surplus of purchasing clerks, recruitment agents, telephone operators, statistics, finance and insurance clerks, cashiers and ticket sellers, and manual packing and simple transhipment workers as previously they were in the balance category.

For next year 2023, a shortage of various groups of teachers in primary schools, upper secondary schools, counselling workers and kindergarten teachers is still predicted.

A shortage of various groups of experts is also predicted - financial analysts, business process analysts, system analysts, lawyers, prosecutors and defence attorneys. Past forecasts predicted a balance between supply and demand for these professions.

Human Resource Management (HRM) and career counselling specialists, traffic dispatchers and traffic clerks, woodworkers are projected to move from deficit to balance.

In 2023 Occupational barometer assessed 183 professions, the results revealed that

1. Shortage predicted in 109 occupations
2. Balance predicted in 39 occupations in balance
3. Surplus in 35 occupations.

Amongst the shortages, we have 10 more occupational groups than last year, 7 fewer occupations in the balance category and 2 fewer occupational groups in the surplus category this year.

Amongst the occupations assessed, the most noticeable change compared to last year's forecasts concerns the telecommunications occupations under consideration, as last year's forecasts for telecommunications technicians predicted a surplus, while this year's forecasts show that the occupation will be in deficit in the coming year.

Similarly, this year's Occupational Barometer shows a projected surplus of marketing and sales managers, ICT technicians, beauticians and gardeners and nurserymen (last year in the balance category).

For the coming year, shortages are still forecast for various groups of primary and secondary school teachers, counsellors and kindergarten teachers.

From deficit to balance, the occupations in question were electronic and electrical engineers and technicians, bookkeepers and accounting assistants, firefighters and process and plant operators for chemical processing and the manufacture of chemical products.