Welcome
Cedefop Skills forecast offers quantitative projections of future trends in employment by sector of economic activity and occupational group in EU-27 Member States, Norway, Iceland, North Macedonia, Switzerland and Türkiye. Future trends on the level of education of the population and the labour force are also estimated. Cedefop Skills forecast uses harmonised international data and a consistent methodological approach with the aim to offer cross-country comparisons about employment trends in sectors, occupations, and qualifications. The forecasts and the methodologies applied are validated by a group of national experts. Nevertheless, it is not the purpose to substitute national forecasts, which often utilise country-specific methodologies and data.
The Skills Forecast methodology uses a modular approach, with the following main elements:
- the demand side (skill needs), focusing on employment (jobs);
- the supply side, focusing on available skills in the labour market, such as the number of people economically active and the qualifications they hold;
- imbalances, comparing the results from the demand and supply side modules.
All modules adopt common data, methods and models for all countries covered to produce a comprehensive and consistent set of skill projections. The database draws primarily on Eurostat sources, including demographic data (both historical and projections), national accounts (NA) and the labour force survey (LFS).
Occupations with very low numbers in terms of employment are not displayed in the online tool. You can find more details about the Skills forecast in the dedicated project page.
The detailed estimates are subject to possibly large and uncertain margins of error. They should not be taken literally but suggestive of indicative trends and patterns. As a rough rule of thumb, any cell containing fewer than 10,000 people should be regarded with caution.
Labour force
This section presents estimates of future labour force growth, presented in terms of annual percentage growth. It is possible to filter by country, gender or age. Different start and end year points are offered as options to view both the short and the medium term.
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Employment
This section presents estimates of future employment growth by country, in terms of annual percentage growth. It is possible to filter by sector of economic activity or occupation. Different start and end year points are offered as options to view both the short- and the medium-term trends. The graph below provides a comparative view of future employment trends across countries, for the selected sector(s) or occupation(s).
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Replacement demand
This section presents estimates on future job openings that are the result of replacement demand by country and occupation. These include future job openings driven by the need to replace existing workforce leaving the occupation for various reasons, with retirement being the most common. It is possible to filter by occupation and/or country. Different start and end year points are offered as options to view both the short- and the medium-term trends. The graphs below provide a comparative view of replacement demand across occupations and countries.
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Country
This section presents country estimates for future expansion demand, replacement demand and labour force growth. Different start and end year points are offered as options to view both the short- and the medium-term trends.
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Occupation
This section presents estimates for future employment and replacement needs by occupation. It is possible to filter by a single occupation and view its estimates for a selected country or compare them across countries. Different start and end year points are offered as options to view both the short- and the medium-term trends. The graphs below provide a comparative view of future trends of employment in an occupation between countries.
Filters
Sector
This section presents estimates for future employment by sector. It is possible to filter by sector and country and compare the estimates with other countries. Different start and end year points are offered as options to view both the short- and the medium-term trends. The graphs below provide a comparative view of future trends of employment in a sector between countries.