Labour market barometer

A methodology for regional studies was developed in 2019. It summarises statistical data and qualitative information specific to a region and serves to describe the situation of regions in terms of demographic and economic factors in the current labour market development. Following discussions, initial versions of these materials for individual regions were elaborated and will be subsequently updated annually. Sectoral trend studies are to identify the main trends and factors that shall affect the situation in the sector over the next few years, particularly in terms of employment and skills needs. The studies are meant to detect qualitative trends, technological and political developments, which are difficult to determine through quantitative methods and yet might be the dominant drivers of development in the near future. These studies will serve both as a tool for interpreting and/or fine-tuning the outputs of the statistical model, and as an output on its own, summarising the situation in the sector. The key sources of information used for the studies included opinions of experts from relevant industries, interviews and focus groups, supplemented by research literature reviews and available statistical data. The principal concern for the future is the sustainability of the system; it is supported by the products created and the network of links between the regional and central levels. In terms of organisation and financing, the Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs strives to make the agenda of labour market projections a stable component of active employment policies.

In 2020, the entire comprehensive model apparatus of labour market predictions was completed, linking the national and regional levels and containing several sub-models: the labour demand forecasting sub-model in individual economic sectors and professional qualification groups, as well as supply models of school graduates entering the labour market, and labour supply coming from abroad. The system of models is closed by an overarching model, which balances both sides and indicates possible future tensions in the labour market from the point of view of individual professional and qualification groups, both at the national and regional levels.

Predictions were also updated in 2020 to incorporate the first signs of the impact of the COVID crisis on the economy and the labour market. They also respected the framework of macroeconomic forecasts of national (Czech National Bank and Ministry of Finance) and international authorities (Eastern European Consensus Forecast). The outputs also included an updated forecast of the inflow of labour from abroad based on the latest Labour Office data, reflecting current changes due to the COVID situation, border closures and difficulties in the movement of foreign workers. The predictions were discussed with experts at the national level as well as within individual regions.

At the same time, labour market monitoring tools were finalised and tested, both through direct data collection from employers regularly performed by the Labour Office of the Czech Republic and through analytical reports devoted to development factors in key sectors of the economy and in individual regions. Monitoring of employers in the regions is carried out by the regional branches of the Labour Office, which, on the basis of a uniform methodology, carries out surveys among employers, with 25 or more employees, and selectively also among smaller companies. At present, almost half of the employees are covered by this survey (48% of all employees in the Czech Republic). In addition to detailed data on the current number and structure of employees, companies also indicate their intentions regarding the planned expansion or shrinking of employees in individual occupational groups (ISCO - 1 level) in the company in a one-year outlook. The Central Labour Office summarises and evaluates data from this monitoring of employers, while also comparing the degree of compliance of expected trends with the real development of employment in the regions. These analyses are one of the sources of verification and refinement of regional labour market predictions created on the basis of econometric model tools.

In addition to regional monitoring of employers, networks of regional partners were created as part of the project to identify the intentions of other key actors in regional development. Among them are local authorities, education institutions, regional chambers of commerce, regional development agencies and other institutions.

At the end of the year, the first version of the website was launched, providing a single location on which national and regional labour market forecasts are published.

In 2020, the Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs decided to extend the project until 2022, so that some new analytical and conceptual activities could be supplemented and the database of predictions could be expanded by additional sources. The Ministry will also expand the professional team to supervise the functioning of the entire system of predictions, ensure individual processes, manage their quality and communicate with relevant users of outputs.

A communication concept was elaborated and the plan to educate the users of the outputs of the labour market prediction system (audio spots, social media, professional articles, printed materials, meet-ups with career counsellors, workshops for the users of the forecasting system, in-person and e-presentations of prediction outputs at national and regional levels) was launched.