Cedefop newsletter

Tourism is a key employer of the EU economy. Employing some 13 million people, it contributes to substantial spill-over employment effects in other sectors, especially in construction, retail and healthcare. From 2000 to 2017, more than 1.8 million new jobs were created in the sector.

People working in tourism are vulnerable to coronavirus-related challenges and skills development implications. Almost one quarter of them are seasonal and temporary workers. The sector also attracts young workers, acting as a first entry point to the labour market for recent graduates, as well as a response to youth unemployment. It also offers easy employment access to vulnerable groups, such as women (almost two thirds of the workers in the sector), and migrants.

Employment structure and change in tourism, 2000-17

Source: Eurostat National Accounts and Structural business statistics. Own calculations.

Skills in the service of economic recovery

Cedefop analysis highlights that tourism, especially in southern EU countries, is at highest risk of economic disruption and potential job losses. Tourism establishments are now hoping for recovery during the 2020 summer, as the pandemic abates in Europe and coronavirus countermeasures are being gradually lifted – a recovery crucial for the economic revival of several countries. Skilled human capital will be key in re-establishing Member States as competitive and sustainable touristic destinations.

Covid-19 disruption and automation risk by occupation, 2020

Source: Automation risk in the EU labour market and EU jobs at highest risk of Covid-19 social distancing. Own calculations. Note: Size of bubbles indicates employment levels.

Research reveals that EU employers – particularly SMEs – in the tourism sector face challenges in recruiting workers, specifically graduates. Corroborating the findings of Cedefop’s research on online job advertisements, transversal skills play a significant role: skill gaps and shortages reported by employers mostly regard such skills, as well as foreign languages, interpersonal and ICT skills, rather than job/tourism-specific skills.

The sector also suffers from negative perceptions regarding working conditions and career prospects. Offering targeted and high-quality training opportunities could be a way to attract more and better-prepared candidates. Reskilling and upskilling of existing employees is necessary to respond to the emerging and persisting new trends in the sector, such as provision of services to targeted groups of visitors (for example, elderly or with disabilities).

Understanding the business and societal challenges and opportunities that affect employment levels, occupation tasks and, consequently, skill profiles in tourism is paramount for designing and offering relevant high-quality vocational education and training.

Read the full Skills developments and trends in the tourism sector analysis for in-depth information.

The strict social distancing measures implemented in Europe due to the pandemic affected a multitude of social activities, requiring people to adapt their behaviour accordingly. Traditional learning and training was one of them.

Distance learning – specifically online learning – rose in prominence in the context of increasing digitalisation combined with social distancing measures, bringing its benefits to the foreground: spatial independence and the possibility for tailored learning at any time.

Cedefop investigated whether a pandemic-induced growth in the interest in digital learning services could be observed in EU Member States by gathering and analysing data on recent search trends for online learning-related queries from Google Trends. The results show a recent, sudden and parallel increase for all search terms in the same period while the interest remained stable in the last two years considered.

The results show a clear and sudden rise in searches for ‘e-learning’, ‘online course’ and ‘online training’ in 2020 that coincides with the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic. This rise suggests that the lack of face-to-face learning opportunities sparked an interest in alternative distance learning arrangements. It remains to be seen whether this shift will lead to a wider acceptance and increasing relevance of online learning in general or whether its popularity will drop to pre-crisis levels once the pandemic is over.

Results and data from the research are available in the Statistics and graphs section on Cedefop’s website.

With more than 94% of the world population affected by lockdown measures, remote working became widely used as a safeguard against the possibility of complete job loss, furlough, business closure as well as extraordinary child care demands. Early assessments suggest that some 40-70% of active workers were affected, compared to about 15-17% of EU workers on average before the pandemic. Several new studies have also highlighted that between a quarter to a third of all jobs in European economies could potentially be performed from home.

An unintended positive side-effect of staying at home is people’s renewed interest and engagement in vocational education and training (VET). Interest in online learning seems to have surged during the recent coronavirus period, particularly though massive open courses (MOOCs). Cedefop evidence, however, cautions against a higher dropout risk for vulnerable learners engaging in distance learning.

It is too early to assess conclusively whether these coronavirus-induced shifts in homeworking and remote learning will be sustainable features of EU labour markets. Cedefop’s second European skills and jobs survey will provide some new insights into the long-lasting effects of the coronavirus, while several commentators already predict that the impact of Covid-19 on the future work organisation is here to stay.

Remote working in the EU before the crisis

One year before the coronavirus crisis, only 14% of EU-27 workers engaged in remote work, ranging from very high shares (over 37%) in the leading countries – Sweden and the Netherlands – to a mere 1-2% in Bulgaria, Romania and Cyprus.

Figure 1. Percentage of employed persons working from home, EU-27 plus UK, NO, IS, CH, 2019

NB: Summation of employed persons working from home sometimes or usually.

Source: European labour force survey, Eurostat [lfsa_ehomp].

Cedefop mapped the profile of workers who had some formal work-from-home (WfH) arrangement with their employer before coronavirus struck (Figure 1). WfH is more prominent among males, natives and older employees. It is more often used by individuals with higher levels of education and those in higher-skilled jobs and industries, including the ICT, professional and scientific activities, real estate and education sectors. WfH is also associated with some elements of poor job quality, such as more and atypical work hours (e.g. working on weekends and shifts), part-time work and multiple job-holding.

Cedefop expert Konstantinos Pouliakas, responsible for the research, remarks that ‘based on Cedefop analysis (Cov19R index), many of the population groups facing higher Covid-19 social distancing risk, such as women, immigrants and the lower-skilled, were the ones least likely to benefit from the option of WfH in the pre-coronavirus era.’

Will remote working boost remote learning?

Cedefop’s empirical analysis reveals a positive relationship between working from home and workers’ higher participation in non-formal learning (Figure 2). Remote workers are more likely to have participated in courses, seminars, conferences or to have received private lessons or instruction outside the regular education system in the last four weeks of being surveyed. They did so mostly for job-related purposes, primarily seeking to acquire further knowledge in fields such as social sciences, business and law, education and ICT.  

Figure 2. Percentage of employed persons working from home and doing non-formal learning, EU-27 plus UK, NO, IS, CH, 2018

NB: Mean values per country of employees (aged 15-64) working from home and attendance in non-formal taught learning activities.

Source: European labour force survey microdata; Cedefop’s own analysis.

Is remote/online learning here to stay?

Following the implementation of specific policy measures in several European countries during the pandemic to promote the use of distance/remote learning, Cedefop’s evidence that there may be a reinforcing link between teleworking and continuing VET is encouraging. There is still a long way to go as only 8% of EU citizens followed an online course in 2019. More research is needed to develop the right policies to ensure that EU workers can reap the full benefits of distance working and learning, particularly given the inevitable loss in organisational informal learning and innovation – the most prominent channel of continuing learning – that is expected to follow the distancing of workers from physical workplaces.

Cedefop’s ongoing research findings on the link between distance working and learning will be published in a dedicated Cedefop working paper in the second half of 2020.

The coronavirus pandemic disrupted the education and training of an entire generation of vocational education and training (VET) learners. Those already at risk – from disadvantaged socioeconomic backgrounds, migrants and from ethnic minorities, learners with disabilities and special education needs – often find themselves out of school. With schools being closed, they risk falling further behind, while further disruption to their learning is imminent if distance learning is not ensured. At the same time, they are at increased risk of violence, abuse and neglect, as families and households are locked down.

Examples of initiatives from seven European countries in Cedefop’s new report show the efforts made to ensure that learning continues for all VET learners, as well as to support VET teachers and trainers who had to convert physical classrooms and working places into digital learning environments overnight.

According to the report, VET teachers and trainers face challenges such as no access to equipment and internet connection required to offer distance learning; lack of digital skills and competences to make efficient use of the platforms; poor experience in creating digital teaching content; no experience in e-learning and other distance learning pedagogies in VET, especially for teaching practical components; concerns over privacy issues, copyright and data protection.

The report also points out that learners at risk, not participating in distance education, disconnect for a longer period and may eventually drop out of their VET programme.

Prior to the pandemic, European countries had made significant progress in lowering the rates of early leaving from education and training, results which should be sustained in the post-coronavirus era. Cedefop’s VET toolkit for tackling early leaving has never been more important in supporting policy-makers and VET practitioners to prevent early leaving.

Cedefop will continue work in this field to support the European Commission, Member States and social partners in implementing the newly adopted Council Conclusions on European teachers and trainers for the future (European Council, 25 May 2020), recognising teachers and trainers as an indispensable driving force of education and training and acknowledging their commitment during the current crisis.

Join our community of ambassadors tackling early leaving from VET.

Cedefop is coordinating the joint international survey on lifelong guidance ‘Covid-19 pandemic and career guidance systems and policy development’, in partnership with six other organisations: the European Commission, European Training Foundation (ETF), the International Centre for Career Development and Public Policy (ICCDPP), the International Labour Organisation (ILO), the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and UNESCO. The survey builds on a shared commitment to supporting guidance systems and services, and universal access to them as presented in the joint statement Investing in career guidance.

The survey aims to shed light on recent challenges of career guidance delivery, systems and regular career practices around the world, and explore how services have adapted and the role of guidance in social and economic strategies, policies and measures during the recovery and subsequent periods. Results are expected to inform future policies and programmes related to career guidance.

The joint questionnaire was developed collaboratively by 16 representatives of the seven organisations including Cedefop, as well as external guidance experts, academics and researchers who are members of the ICCDPP and CareersNet. It was mainly designed for respondents who develop and/or monitor the implementation of career guidance policy and provision, such as national, regional and other bodies responsible for the management of career guidance services, as well as relevant private and civil society/non-governmental/third sector settings. It is available in six languages, translated by the ETF, the ILO and UNESCO.

Results from the survey are expected to be released before the end of the year in a joint publication of the participating organisations. The work is part of the ongoing collaboration of the inter-agency working group on work-based learning.

An additional outcome of CareersNet’s first inquiry into the impact of the pandemic on career guidance, is the ongoing ‘Coronavirus updates’ regularly added to Cedefop’s Inventory of lifelong guidance systems and practices with related policy, delivery and other timely information. You will find updates for 14 countries in a dedicated area of their ‘Introduction’, with links to other sections.

This brings about serious concerns as in some industries where baby boomers thrived (such as manufacturing), millennials now struggle to engage. This situation is expected to create shortage of talent in the decade ahead, with employers finding it difficult to fill vacant posts.  

Cedefop’s skills forecast found that nine in ten future job openings will occur due to a need to replace existing workers, the most common reason being retirement. Any estimation of future job openings needs to include this element, which is often neglected as we tend to focus only on expanding or contracting sectors and occupations. The 2020 skills forecast includes estimations of replacement demands by sector.

It remains to be seen how coronavirus will impact on the retirement decision. Skills forecast Cedefop expert Ilias Livanos suggests that ‘despite the lack of recent evidence in Europe, and the fact that it largely depends on the pandemic itself as well as the responses to its consequences, the coronavirus crisis may lead more people to retirement for safety reasons or due to the bad economy.’

Coronavirus impact on future replacement needs

The table below shows skills forecast estimations on future replacement needs for 2021-30 by main sector of economic activity, coupled with information on the economic impact of coronavirus on sectors by the ILO. More than half of the replacement needs will be in sectors where coronavirus has had a high or medium-high economic impact. Coronavirus may lead even more people working in these sectors to early retirement. For instance, ‘wholesale, retail trade, trade & repair of motor vehicles’ is the sector with the highest expected replacement needs – about 11 million over the next decade across the EU-27. At the same time, this is a sector whose employees are highly exposed to the risk of coronavirus.

Another sector with a high rate of replacement needs is the ‘human health and social work’ sector; even though it was not affected in an economic sense due to its crucial role over this period, its employees include a high share of people aged 61+ while at the same time having been exposed to high risk. This could potentially lead workers who are close to retirement to leave the workforce earlier than originally planned.

Nevertheless, the needs to replace workers in sectors with a high coronavirus economic impact may not fully materialise, as firms may decide to cut costs by not replacing retiring workers. For instance, the ‘accommodation and food service’ is a sector that has been hit hard by the pandemic, while its employees are exposed to high risk. This may lead to both early retirement and non-replacement by the firms. Cedefop’s ongoing research estimates that coronavirus is expected to reinforce automation.

Despite the current difficulties in estimating the exact outcome of the pandemic on retirement and future job openings, frictions in the labour market – already anticipated before the pandemic – are expected to intensify.  

Detailed results of the 2020 skills forecast are available on Cedefop’s skills forecast data visualisation tool.