Cedefop

Invited experts from international organisations and leading academic institutions discussed the focus and content of the survey’s second wave. The questionnaire is set to be finalised in the first half of 2020, with pilot testing to follow and fieldwork expected in the first half of 2021.

The first ESJS was conducted in 2014 among over 48 000 adult employees in the 28 EU countries. While it is generally acknowledged that it met its objectives effectively, in considering the focus of a second wave Cedefop took into account the changed economic climate and policy discourse of recent years.

To align the focus of the survey to current policy and research concerns about the potential risks of automation and the opportunities of new digital technologies (e.g. advanced robotics, artificial intelligence) for individuals’ skills and jobs, Cedefop has decided to modify the second wave. It will have a stronger focus on the relationship between digitalisation and learning, collecting information on whether EU workers are adapting their skills to changing technologies and job tasks. It will be a key input to Cedefop’s new research strand on ‘Digitalisation and the future of work’.

The first survey revealed that 43% of EU adult employees had recently experienced new technologies at work, such as new machines and ICT systems. Using ESJS data, a recent study by Cedefop expert Konstantinos Pouliakas also showed that about 14% of EU jobs face a very high risk of automation while another 4 in 10 are likely to see some of their tasks transformed.

The information collected in the first ESJS on changes in workplace technologies, digital skill needs and prevalence of skill gaps in the EU enabled Cedefop to provide novel insights into skill mismatch. These include forecasting of demand for future skills in Europe, detecting factors sustaining the ‘digital divide’ among EU workers and quantifying the occurrence of skills obsolescence due to changing technologies.

At the Brussels meeting, Mr Pouliakas, who coordinates the survey, presented lessons from the first wave and the background and focus of the second, while Cedefop expert Marco Serafini gave statistical reflections.

Leading experts, Professor Michael Handel from Northeastern University (US) and Professor Terence Hogarth from the Giacomo Brodolini Foundation, provided valuable guidelines as to the focus and desired content of the second wave. Experts from the European Commission (DG EMPL and JRC), OECD, University of Oxford, Economic and Social Research Institute, Maastricht and KU Leuven universities also discussed the key issues and challenges of carrying out a dedicated EU survey on digitalisation and skill mismatch.

The working group members will continue their deliberations over the course of the year to refine and develop the survey focus and instrument.

Eurofound Director Juan Menéndez-Valdés presented his agency’s work. Participants included Cedefop Governing Board Chair Tatjana Babrauskiene and Vice Chair Gerhard Riemer, who are both also members of the EESC.

Ms Brugia argued that investing in people’s skills will remain high on the European policy agenda post-2020, adding that vocational education and training (VET) ‘has a vital role to play if we want our economy to prosper but also to ensure that the first principle of the social rights pillar does not remain empty words: that everyone has the right to quality and inclusive education, training and lifelong learning.’

Our work has contributed to both, which shows that being proactive and forward-looking has paid off, she said, noting also that Cedefop’s new regulation ‘reflects an understanding that VET has become broader to include skills and qualifications and that it bridges education and training and the labour market.’

Cedefop priorities

In her presentation, Ms Brugia focused on three thematic areas: future of work and skills; future of VET; and empowering people.

She said that Cedefop’s EU-wide skill supply and demand forecast for 2030 confirms the expected growth in the service sector, a more polarised occupational structure and jobs that require more autonomy, higher level ICT, and more interpersonal skills. Projections also highlight issues such as the expected comparatively fast growth of workers with high-level qualifications; and, thus, the risk that many people may not have the opportunity to fully use their skills if current labour demand trends continue.

Cedefop also decided to explore the feasibility of an EU-level real-time information system using big data; it developed a prototype and in March will release a first set of data for seven countries. Next year, findings will be available for all Member States.

How digitalisation impacts on skills development, obsolescence and mismatch is a theme examined from different perspectives, including Cedefop’s collaboration with Eurofound on the European Company Survey.

We also need to understand, Ms Brugia noted, how EU crowd workers develop their skills and how these are recognised. This is the objective of Cedefop’s crowd-learn study. Study outcomes will be discussed at a seminar in Brussels later this year in cooperation with the Finnish EU Presidency.

Cedefop has identified three main directions VET systems may take, including expansion of work-based learning and apprenticeships, diversification of learning provision (and providers) together with more individualised learning pathways and a growing role of skills training to include early school-leavers and low-qualified adults. These trends were discussed at Cedefop’s conference which was the centrepiece of the European vocational skills week under the Austrian EU Presidency. Study outcomes will feed the ongoing policy discourse on VET post-2020.

In a fast-changing labour market, supporting the design and implementation of VET policies that can empower people to fulfil their potential is at the core of Cedefop’s work. Over the past years, said Ms Brugia, we completed apprenticeship reviews in eight countries; and we developed a programme including policy learning forums to provide all participating countries with opportunities for information exchanges, mutual learning and policy benchmarking.

A recent cross-country comparative review of apprenticeships in Europe covered all EU Member States, Iceland and Norway. Data from the review are now accessible online in a comprehensive database, which has marked the start of a new Cedefop community of apprenticeship experts.

Helping to ensure that Europe’s 60 million low-skilled adults are not left behind represents a key priority, concluded Ms Brugia: ‘Currently we are investigating the potential of work-based learning for upskilling adults. This study runs in parallel to our policy learning activities in this area, which are an excellent example of the fruitful cooperation between our organisations.’

Participants showed their appreciation of the presentations and congratulated the two agencies on their work.