Europe’s labour force is projected to remain at a similar level in the period up to 2030 while moderate job growth will likely curb unemployment, according to Cedefop’s skills forecast, released on 8 June in Brussels.
The forecast shows that technological change may accelerate known employment trends, such as the shift to services, and may also increase polarisation in job growth, with fast growth projected for high-skill occupations and moderate growth for certain lower-skill jobs. Employment levels in medium-skill occupations will experience a hollowing out, with occupations such as skilled manual workers and clerks, likely to decline or stay the same, as automation and offshoring take their toll. In that context, a rethink of traditional vocational education and training is needed.
Cedefop Acting Director Mara Brugia told a high-level event in Brussels where the new forecast was presented: ‘The goal of forecasting is not to predict the future but to help us to make informed choices to avoid deciding on education and training investments in the dark. Acting proactively is more effective, and often cheaper, than fixing adverse effects at a later stage.’
Cedefop collaborated with Eurofound to predict future skills needed in different types of jobs, using the European jobs monitor framework. Eurofound Director Juan Menéndez-Valdés said: ‘This is another concrete example exploiting two of the agencies’ most prominent tools, the Cedefop skills forecast and the European jobs monitor, to get even more added value.’
Manufacturing is the main sector affected by both global trade and automation, with economic growth projected to show no creation of new jobs and even job losses. However, some high-value-added sectors, including electrical equipment, other machinery, and equipment manufacturing and motor vehicles, are expected to see substantial employment growth. Employment is also forecast to increase in computer, optical and electronic equipment.
Service sectors will experience the fastest employment growth, notably legal and accounting services, research and development, advertising and market research, along with administrative and support service activities.
Chair of Cedefop Governing Board Tatjana Babrauskiene said: ‘The most critical challenge we will have to address in the decade to come is job polarisation, which reduces the amount of good and well-paid jobs. Polarisation means widening inequalities between those who have access to good-quality and skills-intensive work and those who end up being low-paid employees in inferior jobs.’
Director-General, DG Employment, Social Affairs and Inclusion Joost Korte concluded: ‘Cedefop’s skills forecast is an important EU-level data source. It is essential for the work we do in Brussels in the context of the European Semester and to shape the skills for the future labour markets.’
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European and international experts took part in Cedefop’s 3rd policy learning forum (PLF) on learning outcomes in vocational education and training (VET), in cooperation with UNESCO, in Thessaloniki on 21 and 22 June.
Used in different settings and for different purposes – ranging from qualifications frameworks to qualification standards, curricula and assessment criteria – learning outcomes influence the way teaching and learning is organised and carried out. This makes it increasingly important to reflect on the conceptual basis of the approach and its implications for policy and practice.
Cedefop Head of Department for VET Systems and Institutions Loukas Zahilas opened the forum, stressing the excellent cooperation with UNESCO and the international character of the event with 30 countries represented, including EU Member States, South Africa, Laos, Fiji, Trinidad and Tobago and United Arab Emirates. He also talked about the history of learning outcomes from 2007 to 2018, the ‘success story’ of Cedefop’s European handbook on defining, writing and applying learning outcomes, which was published in 2017, and the ambition to make it international.
Building on discussions from the 2015 and 2016 policy learning forums, the handbook outlines the different uses of learning outcomes, points to the dilemmas involved in writing and using them, and proposes an array of practical ‘rules of thumb’. The 2018 PLF built on messages from the handbook, focusing on four main issues:
- conceptual roots of the learning outcomes approach;
- the role of learning outcomes in governing education and training;
- learning outcomes as a common, international language;
- updating the handbook.
Discussions on the topics above, particularly including international experts, will feed into revising and strengthening the 2017 learning outcomes handbook.
In the first day’s keynote speeches, Sequel IEC’s John Hart called the handbook ‘a comprehensive piece of work’ and focused on whether learning processes should be dumbed down or opened up. He showed how the move towards outcome-based education and training systems puts the pupil/student/learner at the centre of the process.
Cedefop’s Jens Bjornavold reflected on the use of learning outcomes as an instrument for governing education and training systems. Some stakeholders see the learning outcomes approach as a way to balance central control with local autonomy. Mr Bjornavold partly supported this aspiration, but warned against too narrow, result-oriented approaches and underlined the need for a wider process-orientation in this area.
Country cases of how conceptual shaping of learning outcomes affects their use in policy and practice were presented, and working groups went deeper into the issue identifying challenges and opportunities.
UNESCO’s Borhene Chakroun discussed qualifications and their link to the labour market in the second day’s keynote speech. He said that learning outcomes are the language of lifelong learning that bridges the world of education and the world of work. He also argued that, when comparing qualifications we need to look at the content, not only at the levels as they may differ from country to country, adding: ‘Our work with Cedefop shows that we can compare learning outcomes; we have the tools to do so.’
International experts presented observations on the role of learning outcomes in promoting international cooperation, communication and networking, and a panel discussion explored the requirements for the actual use and potential benefit of learning outcomes in practice.
The forum ended with the commitment to continue work in the area, engaging also international stakeholders.
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This was the 5th Cedefop seminar in cooperation with the rotating EU Presidencies. These events build on Cedefop research and analysis and address issues relevant to European debates on VET and employment. Over 50 participants attended, including representatives from EU institutions (European Commission, European Parliament, European Economic and Social Committee), the Permanent Representations in Brussels and major private (IBM) and international organisations (OECD).
The seminar focused on the extent to which labour market and skills information (LMSI) systems can inform VET and employment policies in EU Member States. It provided an overview of new developments in artificial intelligence (AI)-based data analytics, which may contribute to faster and better skill needs identification and matching. The opportunities and marked challenges for policy of such new data analytical instruments, reliant on big data and/or AI methods, were highlighted in the discussions.
The advent of machine learning and algorithmically-powered tools for collecting and analysing trends in skills needs and training opportunities has recently raised high hopes. They are expected to help improve skills anticipation and matching capabilities and diagnostics in countries and enterprises.
However, AI-based skills matching algorithms are more likely to be influenced by systemic and inherent biases and misconceptions in their predictive capabilities. Using the outcomes of such instruments may lead to misguided policy decisions and undermine quality assurance in VET provision if they are not placed in the right (institutional) context, or if specific skills governance processes, such as social dialogue, are not in place.
After the opening by Yasen Gyurov on behalf of the Bulgarian Presidency, Cedefop’s Alena Zukersteinova and Konstantinos Pouliakas gave a joint introductory presentation. They highlighted Cedefop’s recent focus on the increasing use and value of big- or AI-based methods for skills analysis and policy as part of its new digitalisation and future of work thematic activity. With its assisting EU countries in skills matching country support programme, Cedefop has also been working closely with EU Member States to build better and more responsive skills anticipation and matching systems.
Big data use
The first session discussed the future of data analytics for skills and skill needs. In his keynote presentation, Cedefop’s Jasper van Loo outlined the agency’s work on big data analysis from online job vacancies, which scrapes online vacancies to detect skill trends in EU countries. He pointed out the opportunities and challenges of using this type of data for policy-making and the critical role of the human factor – the man in the loop – for correctly interpreting and using such data for the purposes of policy-making.
The Vice President of IBM’s Global Workforce Policy Division David Barnes focused on how big data and AI are used by IBM for the purposes of solving the skills equation, equipping workers for job/career transitions and empowering them to take control of their careers.
In the follow-up session on big data for skills matching, Eric Klewais of the Flemish public employment service (VDAB) showed how artificial intelligence and deep learning methods can be used to better match jobseekers to vacancies, predicting the risk of job placement of a given jobseeker or jobseekers’ reaction to caseworkers’ guidance activities.
Claudia Plaimauer (3s, Austria) reported about a pilot project performed on behalf of the Austrian Public Employment Service: testing vacancy mining for validating and supplementing Austria's labour market taxonomies. She underlined that vacancy mining proved to be a highly effective method for identifying evidence-based amendment needs; nevertheless AI-based methods currently can only complement but not completely replace existing editorial methods in taxonomy management.
OECD’s Fabio Manca gave an overview of how to blend ‘subjective’ traditional LMSI tools with emerging methods of skills anticipation and showcased the OECD’s skills-for-jobs database. He presented reassuring evidence that the latest methods of identifying skill shortages in economies, relying on conventional data sources, are positively correlated with emerging skills as predicted by cutting edge machine learning techniques.
In her closing remarks, Cedefop’s Acting Head of Department for Skills and Labour Market Alena Zukersteinova reflected on the exponential pace of development of AI-based data analytics: ‘We need to continue the debate on the promise and challenges posed by what is anticipated to be a wide-ranging application of new predictive instruments in public policy in the coming years. And it is important to bear in mind that we need to use these new big data instruments as complementary to, rather than replacements of, more traditional approaches.’
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Cedefop’s policy learning forum on skills anticipation gathered over 60 national stakeholders from countries participating in the agency’s country support programme and other experts in Thessaloniki on 14 and 15 June.
The forum provided a platform for learning and discussing how to put appropriate skills anticipation methods into practice.
Since 2016, Cedefop has worked closely with national authorities and key national stakeholder networks of six European countries (Bulgaria, Estonia, Greece, Malta, Slovakia and Iceland) to review their governance of skills anticipation and matching systems.
It has provided support in setting up methodological instruments that collect labour market and skills intelligence, and in promoting effective dissemination and use of results in policy areas such as education and training, employment, active labour market policies.
Opening the forum, Cedefop’s Head of Department for Skills and Labour Market Pascaline Descy stressed the need to adapt well-known methods to disruptive labour market trends such as automation, adding that skills anticipation has become ‘quite important in EU-wide and national policy’.
Describing Cedefop’s involvement in the country reviews, Ms Descy said: ‘We work at national level with stakeholders to develop a policy roadmap; we give advice on skills anticipation methods and review how results are disseminated to stakeholders and, potentially, to the public.’
Cedefop experts Konstantinos Pouliakas and Jasper van Loo presented the agency’s programme on ‘assisting EU countries in skills matching’ and the approach Cedefop uses in its country reviews.
To meet participants’ learning needs, the event focused on three methods of skills intelligence and anticipation:
- technological skills foresights;
- sector-based skills anticipation;
- graduate tracer studies.
Participants were divided into groups to identify a country policy need and the skills anticipation method that would best address it, and were asked to come up with an implementation plan. Apart from presenting state-of-the-art skills anticipation methods, experts and representatives from international organisations (ILO, ETF, Cedefop) also facilitated the group work. They helped shape ideas on customising the method to the country and how to best implement it in practice.
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Guidance and career development experts from all EU and accession countries, Cedefop experts and European Commission representatives engaged in the 2nd CareersNet meeting on 7 and 8 June in Thessaloniki.
Participants debated issues related to the development of Cedefop’s network devoted to the policies which support individuals’ careers.
Lifelong guidance, validation and upskilling of adults were debated during the meeting. It was examined how countries can improve national skills strategies, school systems, outreach and enterprise human resources to better support individuals’ careers.
Conclusions highlighted the need for an early education for careers with full community participation and the need to expand young adults’ career support.
The key role of guidance in linking training needs, training offer and skills validation was discussed, noting how it can improve individual career plans and information transmitted between services. Participants also talked about how human resource processes can be improved with correct career development methods and adequate public incentives.
CareersNet’s first public outputs, in 2019, will comprise comparative analysis of career development policies in Europe, including guidance and career education.
The network embodies the core value that individuals learn for life and careers, rather than just for jobs which might be temporary and unstable.
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Cedefop’s European database on apprenticeship schemes is an online tool that contains data on apprenticeship schemes across the 28 EU Member States, Iceland and Norway.
The selected schemes have a stable/valid legal basis and are system-level or mainstream. A scheme is understood as a set of rules and regulations about how this type of training should be designed, delivered, assessed, certified and governed.
The data are organised and easily accessible by country, by scheme and by several other indicators that allow for cross-country or cross-scheme navigation.
Cedefop’s European database on apprenticeships schemes online consists of:
The current content of the tool is based on information collected in the first half of 2016, as part of Cedefop’s study ‘Apprenticeships: a cross-national overview’ (forthcoming, 2018). The data will be regularly revised, updated and expanded.
Users can provide feedback on the content, which will be used to review, update and expand the database. Please, visit the feedback tab to provide your input!
Cedefop will revise and update the database content in 2018. For the future, we aim at setting up a network of experts who will maintain and update the database regularly.
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The European Commission, with Cedefop’s support, organised a festival on the validation of non-formal and informal learning, on 14 and 15 June in Brussels, bringing together around 300 practitioners, policy-makers, social partners and youth and civil society organisations to exchange and discuss initiatives and projects in the field.
DG Employment Social Affairs and Inclusion’s Head of Unit on Skills and Qualifications Alison Crabb opened the festival with Cedefop expert Ernesto Villalba. They emphasised the event’s instrumental role in creating a community of practice around the issue of validation.
On the first day, the festival featured a ‘marketplace’ with 40 stands where participants could visit a diverse range of projects related to the identification, documentation, assessment and certification of skills and competences, and get to know more about the range of practices on validation of non-formal and informal learning.
In the afternoon, thematic workshops discussed in depth various topics related to validation, such as digital badges, block-chain potential, youthpass or competence cards. Cedefop chaired two sessions on ‘developing validation in the workplace in cooperation with employers’ and ‘funding models for validation’.
Commissioner for Employment, Social Affairs, Skills and Labour Mobility Marianne Thyssen opened the second day debate, stressing: ‘We need to make sure people can put all their skills to use in the new world of work, regardless of where they have learned them. This means we have to put validation squarely on the map because it makes learning visible and gives it value.’
She also pointed out Cedefop’s work in assisting the Commission to support better informed policies through the development and maintenance of the European inventory on validation.
At a panel discussion, Cedefop expert Jens Bjørnåvold highlighted the importance of validation as a tool to support both education and employment policies.
The festival contributed to the creation of a community of practice. The next opportunity for the community to get together will be the 3rd Biennale on validation of prior learning in Berlin on 7 and 8 May 2019. Cedefop is part of the event’s organising committee.
For more information contact Ernesto.Villalba-garcia@cedefop.europa.eu
#ValidationEurope
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A knowledge-sharing seminar was organised in Cedefop’s premises in Thessaloniki on 20 June. European Training Foundation (ETF) experts presented their work on qualifications of EQF level 5 as well as on teachers and trainers.
Cedefop Head of Department for VET Systems and Institutions Loukas Zahilas and ETF’s senior specialist in EU education and training policies Georgios Zisimos opened the event.
ETF’s strategic project leader on qualifications Michael Graham and VET teachers and trainers specialist Julian Stanley presented latest trends of ETF work in their areas.
The presentations were an opportunity for Cedefop experts to exchange ideas and discuss future cooperation with their ETF colleagues.
Cedefop and ETF work on the basis of a cooperation framework covering the period 2018-20. The two agencies have been working together for many years in thematic areas, projects and activities of common concern.
Through knowledge-sharing and participation in these activities, ETF and Cedefop have increased their expertise and ensured mutually-beneficial synergies.
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Cedefop is pleased to announce the redesign of the Skills Panorama website. Faster to navigate and easier to use, the new Skills Panorama aspires to broaden its user groups and welcome guidance practitioners.
The website also has many new features worth exploring such as:
- Improved search engine, based on the ESCO classification, so that users identify what they are looking for more quickly and easily;
- Section on ‘Institutions’ providing labour market intelligence (LMI) at national level in each Member State;
- LMI guides and toolkits form a new section under ‘Resources’ with the aim to provide access to all relevant tools to users;
- New edition of the European skills index (ESI).
More is yet to come! Stay tuned for:
- Visualisation tool offering new way of interacting with individual indicators;
- New indicators such as the importance of tasks within occupations; and data on wages and unemployment levels for occupations;
- New dashboards on innovative, growing sectors and skills;
- First results of Cedefop’s vacancy analysis.
For a quick guide to the new website, watch a short video prepared by the Cedefop people behind the effort.
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Now in its third year, the #CedefopPhotoAward is a competition endorsed by the European Commission aiming to showcase the vocational education and training (VET) experience and raise its visibility across the European Union, Norway and Iceland.
This year we are inviting groups of up to four learners to share their VET experience by creating a photo story accompanied by a short narrative of up to 100 words explaining the idea behind their work. The deadline for the entries to be sent to Cedefopphotoaward@cedefop.europa.euis 15 July 2018 23:59 CET.
There will be three prizes for the three best photo stories. The first and second winning teams will travel to Vienna with their teacher/tutor for the European vocational skills week; they will attend a gala dinner on 8 November, where the two winning stories will be showcased, and the award ceremony on 9 November. The third prize will be a trip to Thessaloniki for the opening of the Thessaloniki International Film Festival (#TIFF59) on 1 November.
The winning and runner-up photo stories will be exhibited during #TIFF59 and #EUVocationalSkills week.
You can find more information about the competition and an application form here.
Follow us on Instagram, Facebook, Twitter and YouTube for live interaction and exclusive updates on #CedefopPhotoAward 2018.
To get inspired, watch our promo video and a message by last year's second place winners from Ireland.
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Cedefop's programming document for 2018-20 outlines how the agency will support the European Commission, Member States and social partners to improve vocational education and training and raise skill levels.
Programming document 2018-20ENDOI: 10.2801/899387TI-AR-18-001-EN-NISBN: 978-92-896-2653-818/06/20185.53 MB
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In 2017, Cedefop completed its entire work programme and added new activities. Detailed information on the EU agency's structure, role and activities can be found in its latest annual report.
Annual report 2017ENDOI: 10.2801/989074TI-AB-18-001-EN-NISBN: 978-92-896-2674-318/06/20189.78 MB
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Level descriptors are essential elements of national qualifications frameworks (NQF) established and implemented across Europe. They define what is meant by learning outcomes, describing what an individual is expected to know, be able to do and understand, having acquired a qualification at a particular level.
This Cedefop publication shows that all 39 countries taking part in the implementation of the European qualifications framework (EQF) have now defined – and for a large part adopted – their levels of learning outcomes.
The analysis illustrates the influence of the EQF on national level descriptors, and demonstrates how countries have adjusted and further developed the learning outcomes approach according to national needs and priorities. National level descriptors have mostly been developed through extensive dialogue between different stakeholders.
This report celebrates the 10th anniversary of the EQF in 2018 and its further implementation, as anchored in the revised EQF recommendation (2017).
Analysis and overview of NQF level descriptors in European countriesENDOI: 10.2801/566217TI-BC-18-001-EN-NISBN: 978-92-896-2668-220/06/20182.65 MB
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Skill deficits are a major bottleneck in sustainable activation of the long-term unemployed. Those managing to get back to work often end up in less complex and skill-intensive jobs and have fewer opportunities to develop their potential.
Those long-term unemployed not successful in making a transition to work are likely to face even more severe and complex skill deficits, among other problems. This report makes the case for a more forward-oriented, skills matching approach to activation that aims at sustainable labour market reintegration. Drawing on evidence and diverse practices from around Europe and the views of practitioners and experts, it presents approaches that put sustainable skills matching centre stage. The report shows how at different steps of the journey towards a job – engagement, programme interventions, and job placement, matching and follow-up – innovative principles, policies and tools can make the return to work of the long-term unemployed a long-lasting outcome.
From long-term unemployment to a matching jobENDOI: 10.2801/937641TI-05-17-255-EN-NISBN: 978-92-896-2530-212/06/20181.97 MB
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Work environments in the near future are expected to feature more autonomy, less routine, more use of ICT, reduced physical effort and increased social and intellectual tasks.
Cedefop’s regular skills supply and demand projections provide comprehensive information on labour market trends and skills development across Europe.
По-малко мускули и повече мозък за работниците на утрешния денBGDOI: 10.2801/694359TI-BB-18-004-BG-NISBN: 978-92-896-2240-028/06/2018467.6 KB По-малко мускули и повече мозък за работниците на утрешния денBGDOI: 10.2801/996831TI-BB-18-004-BG-EISBN: 978-92-896-2243-128/06/2018884.64 KB
Mehr im Kopf und weniger in den Beinen – Anforderungen an die Arbeitskräfte von morgenDEDOI: 10.2801/69665TI-BB-18-004-DE-NISBN: 978-92-896-2579-128/06/2018437.1 KB Mehr im Kopf und weniger in den Beinen – Anforderungen an die Arbeitskräfte von morgenDEDOI: 10.2801/670469TI-BB-18-004-DE-EISBN: 978-92-896-2578-428/06/2018897.96 KB
Λιγότερη μυϊκή δύναμη, περισσότερο μυαλό για τους εργαζόμενους του αύριοELDOI: 10.2801/908886TI-BB-18-004-EL-NISBN: 978-92-896-2576-028/06/2018453.98 KB Λιγότερη μυϊκή δύναμη, περισσότερο μυαλό για τους εργαζόμενους του αύριοELDOI: 10.2801/298611TI-BB-18-004-EL-EISBN: 978-92-896-2577-728/06/2018890.21 KB
Less brawn, more brain for tomorrow's workersENDOI: 10.2801/532551TI-BB-18-004-EN-NISBN: 978-92-896-2580-707/06/2018495.49 KB Less brawn, more brain for tomorrow's workersENDOI: 10.2801/140433TI-BB-18-004-EN-EISBN: 978-92-896-2581-428/06/2018275.23 KB
Menos fuerza bruta y más cerebro para los trabajadores del futuroESDOI: 10.2801/741552TI-BB-18-004-ES-NISBN: 978-92-896-2242-428/06/2018329.32 KB Menos fuerza bruta y más cerebro para los trabajadores del futuroESDOI: 10.2801/012371TI-BB-18-004-ES-EISBN: 978-92-896-2241-728/06/2018899.74 KB
Moins dans les muscles, plus dans la tête pour les travailleurs de demainFRDOI: 10.2801/457177TI-BB-18-004-FR-NISBN: 978-92-896-2583-828/06/2018435.21 KB Moins dans les muscles, plus dans la tête pour les travailleurs de demainFRDOI: 10.2801/717486978-92-896-2582-1ISBN: 978-92-896-2582-128/06/2018906.7 KB
Meno muscoli e più cervello per i lavoratori del futuroITDOI: 10.2801/203198TI-BB-18-004-IT-NISBN: 978-92-896-2585-228/06/2018414.24 KB Meno muscoli e più cervello per i lavoratori del futuroITDOI: 10.2801/455716TI-BB-18-004-IT-EISBN: 978-92-896-2584-528/06/2018821.93 KB
Mózg zamiast mięśni: przyszłość pracy w EuropiePLDOI: 10.2801/209854TI-BB-18-004-PL-NISBN: 978-92-896-2586-928/06/2018437.5 KB Mózg zamiast mięśni: przyszłość pracy w EuropiePLDOI: 10.2801/628247TI-BB-18-004-PL-EISBN: 978-92-896-2587-628/06/2018881.03 KB
Menos músculos e mais cérebro para os trabalhadores do futuroPTDOI: 10.2801/03288TI-BB-18-004-PT-NISBN: 978-92-896-2588-328/06/2018378.32 KB Menos músculos e mais cérebro para os trabalhadores do futuroPTDOI: 10.2801/122993TI-BB-18-004-PT-EISBN: 978-92-896-2589-028/06/2018931.79 KB
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Slow economic growth, population ageing, immigration, skills mismatch are challenges Europe is facing at the dawn of the 4th industrial revolution. Cedefop’s skills forecast shows how these challenges will affect future jobs and skills.
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