Cedefop newsletter

As societies are struggling to cope with the new reality following the coronavirus pandemic in terms of socialising, shopping or working, the question arises as to whether this new way of living is here to stay and whether technology will from now on be the preferred way of doing things.

The ILO has used real-time economic and financial data to investigate the impact of the crisis on output by sectors of economic activity. Given that output is the major determinant of employment trends, it is possible to make a first assessment of how the pandemic may affect future skill needs and what the implications for occupations are. The dominant occupations in the sectors affected the most can be examined to gauge the impact of coronavirus on employment and the impact of automation and technology. Data from the 2020 Cedefop skills forecast, which is due to be published soon, along with the estimated risk of automation have been used for that purpose (see Table).

For some medium to low-skilled occupations the impact may be detrimental. For instance, within manufacturing, a traditional core sector in the European Union, the biggest share in employment belongs to metal machinery and related trades workers, an occupation typically employing workers with medium level of education. For that particular occupation, future job openings are estimated to be relatively low, its overall importance is diminishing and the risk of automation is very high.

Metal machinery and related trades workers is also one of the dominant occupations in another sector, that of wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles. Given that both sectors are severely affected by coronavirus and, in turn, future job openings may be lower than originally estimated by the skills forecast (estimations made pre-Covid-19), it is a logical assumption that such workers may be hit harder than others and automation may accelerate job replacement by robots more easily. However, firms intimidated by the pandemic may not invest in new technologies until the crisis is over and its impact is visible. Similar is the case for stationary plant and machine operators, the second biggest occupational group within manufacturing.

In accommodation and food service activities, another hardly hit sector, food preparation assistants seem to be the most vulnerable group of workers. They may be replaced by automation more easily also to protect public health by reducing the number of people present in a small place such a kitchen.

In contrast, occupations in the highly skilled groups, which are easier to adjust to new working conditions such as telework, seem to be safer in the battle against automation. For instance, in real estate, professional, scientific and technical activities the largest share in employment is that of business and administration professionals. Even though this sector is also experiencing the negative impacts of coronavirus, which may slow down its foreseen growth, it is gaining importance while its risk of automation is relatively low.

Cedefop expert Ilias Livanos, who leads the skills forecast, notes that ‘the ongoing coronavirus crisis may further accelerate job polarisation by hollowing out jobs in the middle who seem to be most vulnerable to the uses of technology.’

The tourism sector has become one of the strongest pillars of the EU economy in the past two decades. Job growth in tourism has been over three times as high as the overall job growth of the EU economy since 2000.

But the sector now faces a grim and uncertain future as the coronavirus countermeasures will continue to disrupt both individual and business travelling for a potentially long period of time. In addition, the impact of the pandemic may bring profound changes to people’s habits and business operations, which tourism businesses may struggle with for years to come.

Source: Cedefop, 2020.

Which EU Member States can be expected to face the highest risks in tourism jobs? Cedefop identifies and explores two high-risk factors: (a) importance of international arrivals for a country’s tourism sector, and (b) share of small enterprises in the tourism employment sector.

(a) Dependence on international tourism is considered a high-risk factor, since international arrivals are expected to be dramatically affected by coronavirus. European countries depend on international tourism to different degrees. Malta, a country with a population of less than half a million, received over 2.5 million foreign tourists in 2018, or 5.3 per capita; in contrast, Slovakia with almost 5.5 million people, welcomed 2.3 million foreign tourists or 0.4 per capita in the same year.

At the moment, attractiveness for foreign tourists poses a threat: this summer, local businesses may have to rely on domestic tourists alone, and in case of countries like Malta, Croatia or Cyprus, these will not be enough to offset the drop in international demand.

(b) Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), and particularly microbusinesses (with fewer than 10 employees), can be considered more susceptible to the negative effects of the coronavirus, given their limited human and financial resources, as well as their often greater difficulties in accessing government support.  Microbusinesses are linked to over one third of employment in the tourism sector in 15 EU Member States; for example, in Italy they contribute to half the tourism sector employment, with Poland, Belgium and Croatia not far behind.

These two high-risk factors combined spell significant challenges for the tourism sector following the coronavirus pandemic, particularly in five European countries: Malta, Croatia, Cyprus, Austria and Greece. Supporting the sector, especially its smaller establishments, is vital for protecting millions of jobs across Europe.

More information in Cedefop’s analysis on trends and challenges in employment and skills in the tourism sector, to be published in June.

Along with a host of other international organisations Cedefop is supporting a global survey to examine the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on training and development of employees, apprentices and interns in all types of jobs and in all types of private, public and non-governmental organisations.

We need to share our experiences of how organisations managed during the pandemic. Your answers to the survey will help us build a collection of good practice and innovative solutions that organisations devised to overcome the challenge of Covid-19 – a source of information to benefit us all.

Help us learn the lessons of the Covid-19 pandemic by filling in the survey.

The survey has six parts. Sections I, II, V, VI are for everyone; Sections III and IV are for enterprises or organisations that have work-based learning programmes, particularly apprenticeships and internships/traineeships, comprising all forms of learning in a real work environment that give people the skills they need to find and keep jobs and progress in their career.

By completing the survey, you will be part of a global initiative involving the African Development Bank, the Asian Development Bank, the European Commission, the European Training Foundation, the European Centre for the Development of Vocational Training (Cedefop), the Global Apprenticeship Network, the ILO, the OECD, UNESCO and the World Bank Group.

Responses will complement another ILO and UNESCO survey, which is collecting the views of technical and vocational education and training (TVET) providers, policy-makers and social partners.

You will find more information about the inter-agency group on TVET here.

The 2020 update was developed before the coronavirus pandemic. The short-term economic impact of the lockdown in many countries is uncertain; the current short-term forecast is therefore likely to be over-optimistic. However, the key long-term factors (such as the ageing population, increasing use of automation/artificial intelligence, globalisation, resource scarcity and move towards a carbon neutral economy) will still hold as the EU Member States put plans into place to deal with the virus, and their economies move forward. The trends in the longer-term forecast are therefore also likely to hold.

Cedefop Executive Director Jürgen Siebel notes: ‘Our skills forecast is a unique database in Europe, constantly used for analysing labour market phenomena and assessing the impact of policies even beyond the EU skills agenda (e.g. the green deal, the transition to a circular economy, etc.). The 2020 release presents the baseline scenario for skills in Europe if there were no pandemic. Using this baseline, we can assess the coronavirus impact on sectors and occupations for the post-crisis “new normal” across all Member States.’

Key challenges

Future labour market participation rates are expected to fall in many countries. This is the result of an ageing workforce and a decreasing size of prime-aged workers. Over the forecast period, this trend is not expected to cause a decline in the workforce, as population is increasing, but it may be a matter of time before Europe’s labour force starts declining in numbers. The question arises whether the measures focusing on specific groups of workers, such as the extension of working life, flexible forms of work and support of female participation, are enough to solve the overall problem. Moreover, the current crisis may serve as an alarm bell for an ageing workforce and population that is more vulnerable to a recurrence of a similar pandemic in the future.

Figure 1: Trend in participation rate, EU-27, 2021-30

Source: Cedefop 2020 skills forecast.

In the next decade, job polarisation is expected to grow further. Jobs in the higher and lower skills spectrum are expected to grow, hollowing out those in the middle. Overall, four in five new jobs will be in high-skilled occupations.

The job polarisation phenomenon is not new but current technological advances seem to be affecting routinised occupations the most. Many clerks, such as general and keyboard clerks or numerical and material recording clerks, will lose a significant share in employment as they now become less relevant.

This trend is likely to be further reinforced by the pandemic, which has hit harder sectors that typically employ workers with a medium level of skills. Such occupations are also threatened more by technological advances. The coronavirus may result in their replacement by technology.

A highly skilled workforce

The skills forecast also highlights a continuous skills upgrade trend. It is estimated that by 2030 the needs for workers with high level of qualifications will account for about 36.5% of total employment. However, since their supply is outpacing demand, it is more likely that the share of total employment with high level of qualifications will account for 41%.

Although we are heading towards a highly skilled workforce, a significant part may not have the opportunity to use the skills it has acquired. This might lead to intensification of work at lower levels, raising skill needs and making mid-level occupations even more demanding.

Still, as Cedefop expert Ilias Livanos notes, ‘the skills upgrade or the so-called over-education should not always be interpreted negatively, as we observe that during the coronavirus crisis, it is the high-skilled workers that find it easier to adapt to the new ways of working by making good use of technological advances.’

Figure 2: Real needs and actual distribution of employment by level of education, EU-27, 2030

Source: Cedefop 2020 skills forecast.

You can access the detailed results of the 2020 skills forecast and the future prospects of sectors and occupations for each country here.

The award, Cedefop’s initiative to promote excellence in VET across the EU and beyond, offers young learners, as well as adults in continuing education, the chance to showcase their talent.

Teams of up to four VET learners in the European Union, Norway and Iceland are invited to share their VET experience related to green or digital skills in a creative photostory, accompanied by a narrative of up to 100 words, explaining the idea behind their work. Individual entries will not be accepted.

For the first time this year, participants have the option to create an additional short video (up to 60 seconds), highlighting the photostory’s main message.

Prizes include trips to the European vocational skills week 2020 in Berlin or to the 61st Thessaloniki International Film Festival, and Interrail tickets.

Two winning teams, accompanied by their teacher/tutor will travel to Berlin in November for the #EUVocationalSkills week main celebrations, where the first prize winners will be announced. A third team will win the Prix du Jury and travel to Thessaloniki for the opening ceremony of the International Film Festival in November. Cedefop will showcase the photostories of the winners and runners-up in exhibitions in both cities.

All learners in the team with the best video will win Interrail global passes to travel for five days within one month in as many as 33 countries. You can win an award for both a photostory and a video, so be extra creative!

In case any/all events are cancelled or conducted virtually due to the ongoing coronavirus situation, the winners will be invited to next year’s editions. Read the competition rules for more information.

Applications may only be submitted online by following this link. The deadline for submissions is 30 June 2020 at 23:59 CET.

For more information, tips and updates on the #CedefopPhotoAward, follow us on Instagram, Facebook, Twitter & Youtube!

The memorandum, on maintenance and further development of the European system for collecting, processing and analysing online job advertisements within the web intelligence hub, formalises a fruitful cooperation between Cedefop and Eurostat in the past few years on building a joint approach to online job advertisement data.

Both directors agreed that this joint work is a great example of inter-institutional cooperation bringing multiple benefits to the two organisations and other EU bodies as well as the wider research and expert community.

Mr Siebel noted that ‘the fast and more granular information on employers’ skills needs is important for Cedefop when advising education and training policy-makers.’ At the same time, Eurostat continuously seeks new data sources to improve official statistics. According to Mr Barredo Capelot, ‘this collaboration between Eurostat and Cedefop kickstarts the building of the web intelligence hub, one of the pillars of the future infrastructure of European statistics.’

Over the past few years, the significance of open access as a publication model in the field of academic and scientific research has grown enormously. Cedefop Executive Director Jürgen Siebel underlines that ‘if you want to be a relevant player in research for policy-making, if you want to be part of the discussion, open access to your research is the only option.’

The Agency’s new Regulation (in force since 2019) states that ‘Cedefop shall enhance and disseminate knowledge, provide evidence and services for the purpose of policy-making, including research-based conclusions, and shall facilitate knowledge-sharing among and between Union and national actors.’

Cedefop will ensure that all work carried out by its expert staff as part of their official duties will be included in the open access repository, which will be available in the web portal soon. All publications will be made directly accessible under the 4.0 CC open licence, with the adoption of the Creative Commons licence in line with the European Commission’s reuse policy (Article 6 of Decision 2011/833/EU).