Evaluation and forecasting of the potential labour demand for higher education graduates up to 2020
2013-15 and currently run by the Ministry of National Education.
The instrument has been elaborated specifically to assess the labour demand for higher education graduates and thus to aid in the adaptation of the higher education supply to the needs of the labour market.
The policy focuses on matching the supply of higher educated graduates with the demand of the employers, the adaptation of curricula and strengthen the link between higher education supply and the changing demands of the real economy. The instrument has been designed to assist the decision making at national level and thus reduce the gap between the supply of higher educated graduates and the demand coming from the labour market. It has been used to forecast trends by occupation and thus inform the national decision making process, as well as at the university level, with respect to the trends of the labour market and help adjust the structure of the university studies, adjust curricula and education plans and ultimately assist in creating a better match between education and the needs of the enterprises.
The instrument is explicitly designed to address skills mismatches by providing decision makers with an instrument to assess the trends in the labour market at the occupational level, and thus tackle mismatches between the supply of higher educated graduates and the needs of the labour market by occupation. It also helps in designing and tailoring curricula according to the changing content of occupations.
Aim of policy instrument
The instrument has been elaborated under an ESF co-financed project SOP HRD 2007-13.
Main responsible body
The Ministry of National Education
The National Scientific Research Institute in the field of Labour and Social Protection (INCSMPS) has been responsible for the design of the forecasting instrument, as well as of the occupational analyses. After the termination of the ESF financed project, current funding of the system only comes from the national budget. Monitoring is done by the Ministry of National Education.
The funding comes from the state budget under the regular allocations for the functioning of the central apparatus of the Ministry of Education, the department for higher education.
The higher education institutions, as well as the Ministry of Education and research centres.
Use of labour market intelligence
A forecasting instrument has been designed with a focus on occupation groups using LFS and Census data. It provides the decision makers with information on the main trends regarding the demand for a certain occupation in terms of the replacement and of the expansion demand.
The project has been financed via the ESF under SOP HRD 2007-13.
Frequency of updates
The Ministry of Education does regularly updates, but it is not possible to tell how frequently these are performed.
The approach has been adjusted to provide more detail on occupations. Several test runs have taken place so as to ensure that the main occupation trends are correctly represented, and that the results are plausible (the results of forecasting at occupational level should not come into contradiction with results of forecast at sector level).
There were no barriers in the implementation of the project.
Good cooperation between the partners in the project (INCSMPS and the Ministry of Education).
The progress is measured by the Ministry of Education, but no indicators are actually available to date.
It has been an approach focusing on the forecasting of trends by occupation, with a high level of disaggregation.
Evidence of effectiveness
There is no impact evaluation, but there is evidence that the decisions of the Ministry of Education regarding the number of students, and especially the number of students' places, in state higher education institutions for the different profiles of study and specializations of higher education are taken based on the data provided by the instrument. Benefits have been largely as expected. No unexpected costs or benefits, but there is a need to provide financing for each update of the instrument.
Engagement of stakeholders
Stakeholders are engaged regularly by the Ministry of Education, who is constantly cooperating on this issue with the universities, as well as with organisations, unions of the students, and professors' and non-didactic staff unions etc.
The occupational analysis, as well as the occupational element of the instrument may be transferred, but an ISCO type structure of the occupations has to be available. The variations in the classifications of sectors of activity may cause some disturbances as the trends will be affected. However, it should be taken into account that for transferability, significant changes to the system of equations that underpins the whole instrument would need to be made.
The instrument may continue for the coming years, but there is a clear need of funding for updating.