Based on extensive engagement with policymakers, social partners, civil society organisations and education, training and career guidance providers across EU Member States, the study develops four AI-powered scenarios. These are not predictions, but exploratory tools to identify opportunities, threats and urgent priorities for shaping a desired future for CSD. They span a wide range of possibilities:
Navigating the cross-cutting red flags
A key message emerging across all four scenarios is the urgent need for innovative, inclusive and adaptive approaches to CSD. The study identifies several "cross-cutting red flags" that policymakers must address to ensure that technology translates into inclusive, sustainable and equitable societal outcomes:
1. AI’s dual potential: AI can empower people, but unchecked deployment risks concentrating power and wealth, undermining democracy and social cohesion.
2. Workplace transformation challenges: AI can augment human work and enable higher-value roles, or accelerate replacement and job degradation.
3. Learning, guidance and counselling transformation: AI can personalise learning and guidance, but only if deployed ethically and with safeguards for human agency and well-being.
4.The individual responsibility gap: Growing expectations for individuals to manage their own skills development may empower some, while leaving others behind.
5. Changing employment landscape: New, often precarious forms of work may enable flexibility or increase insecurity, weaken collective bargaining and erode social protection.
6. Widening inequalities: Unequal capacity to adapt to technological change risks deepening disparities between people, places and organisations.
The call for a paradigm shift
To steer towards a future where benefits are broadly shared, the study argues that traditional models of continuing vocational education and training (CVET), centred mainly on institutional provision, are no longer sufficient. A fundamental shift is needed, recognising lifelong and life-wide learning as inseparable.
Policies must strategically leverage all learning contexts — institutional, self-directed and workplace — through collaborative governance involving policymakers, social partners, civil society and education, training and career guidance providers. Such collaboration is essential for harnessing AI’s potential to enhance learning, careers and lives.