Europe's labour markets are being reshaped by digital transformation, demographic ageing and the green transition. Because these shifts unfold over decades, education and training systems need long-range, reliable intelligence to respond in time, adjusting provision, anticipating shortages and guiding learners toward sustainable careers. Cedefop's newly updated Skills Forecast delivers exactly that: quantitative projections of employment trends up to 2035 by country, sector and occupation across the EU-27, as well as Iceland, Norway, the Republic of North Macedonia, Switzerland and Türkiye.
What the tool offers
Drawing on macro-economic modelling and harmonised international data, the Skills Forecast enables cross-country comparisons and supports more coherent policy design at EU, national and sectoral levels. It sits within Cedefop's Skills Intelligence suite, alongside, the Skills intelligence tool, Skills-OVATE and the Short-term anticipation of skills trends and VET demand (STAS). The 2026 release of the tool introduces two significant enhancements: dedicated analysis on replacement demand (the need to fill posts vacated by workers leaving an occupation, primarily through retirement) and a disaggregation of medium-level qualifications into vocational and general education pathways, offering a more granular picture of Europe's skills landscape. The Cedefop Labour Skills and Shortage Index (CLSSI) has been updated in parallel, providing occupation-level shortage projections driven by demand growth, replacement needs or qualification mismatches.
Key figures: Europe's labour market the 2023-2035 projections
Growth
Overall employment in the EU-27 is projected to grow by over 4 % between 2023 and 2035.
ICT professionals and technicians: 2.5 % projected annual employment growth across the EU-27, ranging across the Member States from 1.3% (Italy, Germany) to 7.8% (Romania)
Electricity generation: among the sectors with the highest projected annual employment growth rates in the EU-27, at around 2 %, reaching 4 % and above in some countries — for example Malta, the Netherlands, Romania and Luxembourg.
Employment-wise, R&D, computer services, and architectural and engineering activities are among the fastest-growing sectors overall, signalling the centrality of STEM and green transition spillovers. Their annual growth in employment is expected to be higher in Romania (>7%), Estonia and Denmark (>3%)
Decline
Coal: projected annual employment decline of 10.7 % — the steepest of any sector.
Manufactured fuels: projected annual employment decline of 4.4 %.
Demographics and the workforce
The labour force aged 65 and over is projected to grow at over 7 % annually. This varies across the member states, from around 2% (e.g., Belgium, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia) to over 10% (Romania, Greece, Slovenia, France, Croatia).
The 30–54 age cohort is expected to shrink at 0.2% annually.
Female labour force participation is forecast to grow slightly faster than male, narrowing the gender gap further.
Population ageing is expected to drive employment growth in human health activities and related occupations, including health professionals, associate professionals and personal care workers, with employment in these occupations projected to grow by almost 1% annually.
Shortages
CLSSI data flag mounting pressures in high-skilled occupations — managers, professionals and associate professionals — driven by strong demand, high replacement needs and qualification mismatches.
From evidence to action
Cedefop's Skills Forecast helps turn Europe's policy ambitions into evidence-based action. For European and national institutions and social partners the data provide a comparable basis to underpin the Union of Skills, shape the forthcoming EU VET strategy and identify where coordinated action on qualifications, funding and social dialogue is most urgent. Country-level projections allow national and regional policymakers to benchmark against EU-27 trends, calibrate training provision and target investment where shortages and demographic pressures are most acute.
For VET providers and social partners, CLSSI shortage data offer an early signal for curriculum development, capacity planning and social dialogue on upskilling and apprenticeships.
By anticipating labour market and qualification trends to 2035, the Skills Forecast can also inform action, among others, under the Digital Decade, the AI Continent Action Plan and the Competitiveness Compass — EU policy frameworks that all underscore the centrality of skills and innovation to Europe's future growth and resilience.
The full dataset and interactive tool are available at cedefop.europa.eu/en/tools/skills-forecast.