This Cedefop paper examines how employment in occupations identified previously as being at high risk of automation has changed over time. It also uses information from a matched employer-employee data set from Ireland, an EU country with relatively high exposure to digitalisation, to examine the relationship between employment change and organisational practices.
The paper shows that among occupations previously identified as fully automatable, though more likely to experience slower or negative employment growth than the non-automatable, almost 40% saw an increase in the five-year period since predictions were made. The average rate of decline was just -2%.
By correlating a measure of expected occupational change from 2008 to 2018 with various measures of technological change, it is found that firms that introduced new technology or indicated that technology was generating pressure for change in 2008, were more likely to employ workers in occupations with positive future employment change. Having a greater share of employees amenable to technological change, and being consulted about decisions on working practices and new technologies, are associated with higher predicted employment growth.