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Skills Forecast

​Cedefop skills forecasts offers quantitative projections of the future trends in employment by sector of economic activity and occupational group. Future trends on the level of education of the population and the labour force are also estimated. Cedefop’s forecasts use harmonised international data and a common methodological approach with the aim to offer cross-country comparisons about employment trends in sectors, occupations and qualifications. The forecasts and the methodologies applied are validated by a group of national experts. Nevertheless, it is not their purpose to substitute national forecasts, which often utilise more detailed methodologies and data, while they also incorporate in-depth knowledge of the labour market of the country.

The latest round of forecasts covers the period up to 2030. The forecasts take account of global economic developments up to May 2017.Despite cross-country differences, the EU economy as a whole is expected to show modest growth, after a better than expected performance in 2017. Over 2018 and 2019, the EU economy as a whole is expected to grow, albeit at a slower pace compared to 2017, supported by increased household expenditure and falling unemployment, although wage growth remains muted. Investment is also expected to pick up given favourable financing conditions and an improved economic outlook. The key assumptions of the baseline scenario incorporate the Eurostat population forecast available in 2017 (Europop 2015) and the short-term macroeconomic forecast produced by DG ECFIN in May 2017.

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Labour force

This section presents estimates of future labour force growth by country. These are presented in terms of both percentage growth and change in absolute numbers. It is possible to filter by gender or age but not both simultaneously. Different start and end year points are offered as options in order to view both the short and the medium term. Additional graphs show the future EU trends by gender and age.

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Employment

This section presents estimates of future employment growth by country. These are presented in terms of both percentage growth and change in absolute numbers.  It is possible to filter by sector of economic activity or occupation but not both simultaneously. Different start and end year points are offered as options in order to view both the short and the medium term. The purpose of the graphs below is provide a comparative view of future trends of employment in sectors and occupations across countries.

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Job openings

This section presents estimates of future total job openings by country and occupation. These include job openings to occur in the future due to both expansion of employment and the need to replace existing workforce leaving the occupation for various reasons, with retirement being the most common. It is possible to filter by occupation and/or country. Different start and end year points are offered as options in order to view both the short and the medium term. The purpose of the graphs below is provide a comparative view of job openings across occupations and countries.

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Country

This section presents a country summary of estimates for future employment, future total job openings and future labour force growth. In terms of future employment the top 10 sectors and occupations are presented for both percentage growth and change in absolute numbers. The occupations with the highest replacement demand and total job openings are presented in absolute numbers. Regarding future labour force growth, its percentage growth by age group, gender and qualification is available. It is possible to filter by country. Different start and end year points are offered as options in order to view both the short and the medium term. The purpose of this section is to provide an overall view on its country’s growth in employment, job openings and labour force.

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Occupation

This section presents estimates for future employment, future job openings and replacement needs for a specific occupation. The future employment estimates are presented in both percentage growth and change in absolute numbers. Additional graphs present the top 10 sectors of employment and the employment by qualification in absolute numbers for the selected occupation. Regarding future job openings and replacement needs, their change in absolute numbers is depicted. It is possible to filter by a single occupation and a single country, and compare its estimates with other countries. Different start and end year points are offered as options in order to view both the short and the medium term. The purpose of the graphs below is to provide a comparative view of future trends of employment in an occupation between countries.

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Sector

This section presents estimates for future employment for a specific sector. These are presented for both percentage growth and change in absolute numbers. Additional graphs present the top 10 occupations of employment and the employment by qualification in absolute numbers for the selected sector. It is possible to filter by a single sector and a single country, and compare its estimates with other countries. Different start and end year points are offered as options in order to view both the short and the medium term. The purpose of the graphs below is to provide a comparative view of future trends of employment in an sector between countries.

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The detailed estimates are subject to possibly large and uncertain margins of error. They should not be taken literally but suggestive of indicative trends and patterns. As a rough rule of thumb, any cell containing fewer than 10,000 people should be regarded with caution. Cells with fewer than 1,000 people should be regarded with considerable scepticism.